BMIE Market 11721

Suffolk County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,426 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±705 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,417 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±195 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,292 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,421 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$197,179 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,000 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	50.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$3,501 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$740,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±36,823 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	2.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11721
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	17.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+12.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 10–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.16) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	28 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11721. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.16, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	78.1	78	40%	+31.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66.5	66	35%	+23.3
Market Momentum Score	27.8	28	25%	+7.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,426	64	40%	+25.7
Median household income (ACS)	197,179	99	40%	+39.5
Households (ACS)	2,417	64	20%	+12.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	12.5	56	35%	+19.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.0	56	25%	+14.1
Population (ACS)	6,426	64	20%	+12.9
Median household income (ACS)	197,179	99	20%	+19.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 28 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-25	11	50%	+5.4
10-year restaurant growth	12.5	56	30%	+16.9
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (14)

By cuisine

American 3 · Seafood 3 · Bakery 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 8 · Bar 4 · Bakery 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Casual dining 1 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Beach Pub	Bar	American	102 Washington Dr	open
Blind Bat Brewery Bistro	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		94 Washington Dr	open
Blondies Bake Shop	Bakery	Bakery	90 Washington Dr Ste A	open
cindysnacks Deli & Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	90A Washington Dr	open
Hometown Bakeshop	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	2 Little Neck Rd	open
Jimmy's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	102 Washington Dr	open
Katkin Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2 Stony Hollow Rd	open
Lai Lai Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	111 Mill Dam Rd	open
Mill Pond Steak & Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Sushi · Seafood · Japanese	437 E Main St	open
Nicky's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	6 Little Neck Rd	open
The Backstage Pass	Bar		2 Middle country rd	open
The Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	1 Stony Hollow Rd	open
Timothy's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	10 Little Neck Rd	open
U.S. Brews	Bar		109 Mill Dam Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	8	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	8	6	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	12	10	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	12	10	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	11	8	4	4	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	10	7	2	4	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	9	6	2	4	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	8	5	2	3	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	9	6	2	4	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	12	9	2	5	2	2	NAICS2002
2004	9	6	2	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	8	6	2	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	8	6	2	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	11	9	3	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	9	7	3	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	10	8	2	4	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	14	11	3	4	4	1	NAICS2007
2011	16	13	3	4	6	1	NAICS2007
2012	14	11	3	6	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	10	8	3	3	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	11	9	2	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2015	13	11	2	7	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	11	10	3	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	11	10	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	12	—	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	13	3	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	12	—	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	11	—	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	11	—	6	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	9	—	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11721. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
11768	2.2 mi	60	2023
11740	2.6 mi	18	2023
11743	3.0 mi	168	2023
11731	4.0 mi	67	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.