BMIE Market 11949
Suffolk County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 14,563 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,254 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 5,187 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±458 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 14,573 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 5,399 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $138,864 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,594 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 45.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $2,144 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±186 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $601,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,782 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 36.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 14 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11949 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 9.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +7.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | -6.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +75.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +55.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 15 (range 12–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.12) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 60 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 54 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11949. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.12, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 83.3 | 83 | 40% | +33.3 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 59.6 | 60 | 35% | +20.9 |
| Market Momentum Score | 53.6 | 54 | 25% | +13.4 |
Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 14,563 | 76 | 40% | +30.5 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 138,864 | 95 | 40% | +37.9 |
| Households (ACS) | 5,187 | 75 | 20% | +15.0 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 60 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | -6.7 | 20 | 35% | +7.0 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 9.6 | 74 | 25% | +18.4 |
| Population (ACS) | 14,563 | 76 | 20% | +15.2 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 138,864 | 95 | 20% | +18.9 |
Market Momentum Score: 54 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 7.7 | 65 | 50% | +32.4 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | -6.7 | 20 | 30% | +6.0 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 75 | 76 | 20% | +15.2 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (28)
By cuisine
Coffee 6 · Burgers 4 · American 3 · Italian 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Chinese 2 · Japanese 2 · Dessert 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Bar 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Quick service 4 · Bakery 3 · Café 3 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian pearl | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian · Japanese · Chinese | 496 County Rd 111 | open |
| Bagel Palace | Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop | Bakery · Sandwiches | 460 County Road 111 | open |
| Blimpie | Other | Sandwiches | 285 Wading River Rd | open |
| Carlo’s Pizza Of Manorville | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 287 Wading River Rd | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 460 County Road 111 | open |
| Dunkin' Donuts | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 285 Wading River Rd Hess | open |
| East Garden | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian | # 3 460, 460 County Road 111 | open |
| Godfather's Pizza | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 285 Wading River Rd | open |
| J & K Deli | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches | 260 Moriches-Middle Island Rd | open |
| JC's Restaurant Manorville | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar | 2 Country Club Dr | open | |
| La Vespa | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 264 Moriches-Middle Island Road | open |
| Lakers Tiki Bar | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 30 Gateway Ln | open | |
| Long Island Farm Brewery | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 663 Wading River Rd | open | |
| Manor Nutrition | Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop | Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 460 County Rd 111 | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 560 Cord Route 111 | open |
| Rollin' Ghost Food Truck | Food truck | 663 Wading River Rd | open | |
| Roma Di Notte | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering | Pizza · Burgers · Italian | 457 County Road 111 | open |
| SoBol Manorville SoBol of Ridgefield | Café · Juice, smoothie, tea | Coffee · Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls | 496 County Rd 111 | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 485 Eastport Manor Rd | open |
| Tandy's Bubbles | Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Tea / bubble tea · Coffee | 460 County Rd 111 | open |
| The Maples | Bar | Burgers · American | 10 Ryerson Ave | open |
| Tonys Sushi & Chinese Food | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Chinese | 19 Wading River Manor Rd | open |
| Wendy's Wendy's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 496 Captain Daniel Roe Hwy | open |
| Westhampton Beach Brew & Grille | Casual dining · Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 496 County Rd 111 | open | |
| Emack& Bolio’s | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 460 County Road 111 Unit 9 | closed |
| Prima Stella | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 460 County Road 111 | closed |
| Sing Fai Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 460 County Road 111 Unit 3 | closed | |
| Xing Fu Hibachi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 256 Moriches Middle Island Rd | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 11 | 9 | — | — | — | 2 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 10 | 9 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 8 | 6 | — | — | — | 2 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 8 | 5 | — | — | — | 3 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 3 | — | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 3 | — | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 15 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 17 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 19 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 21 | 17 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 21 | 17 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 19 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 21 | 17 | 8 | 7 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 22 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 20 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 22 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 23 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 20 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | — | NAICS2022 |