BMIE Market 18434

Lackawanna County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,031 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±264 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,757 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±198 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,192 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,954 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$62,922 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,214 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$959 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±146 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$164,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,534 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	6.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 18434
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	23.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+200.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 8–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.04) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	38 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	49 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	33 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	28 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 18434. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.04, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 38 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	48.6	49	40%	+19.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	32.8	33	35%	+11.5
Market Momentum Score	27.8	28	25%	+7.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,031	57	40%	+22.8
Median household income (ACS)	62,922	35	40%	+14.0
Households (ACS)	1,757	59	20%	+11.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 33 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	35%	+6.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	22.3	32	25%	+7.9
Population (ACS)	4,031	57	20%	+11.4
Median household income (ACS)	62,922	35	20%	+7.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 28 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-10	19	50%	+9.3
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	30%	+5.5
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (19)

By cuisine

American 5 · Italian 4 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · European 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Bar 5 · Casual dining 2 · Bakery 1 · Café 1 · Dessert 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Adams 2nd Avenue	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		309 2nd Ave	open
B & G Winery LLC	Winery / distillery / taproom		Jessup Borough, 395 Lane St	open
Cafe Colarusso	Café	Italian · Pizza · Coffee	233 Bridge St	open
DK's Corner	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Sandwiches	201 Cherry St	open
Ginger's Pies	Bakery	Bakery	309 Church St	open
Heaven on Hill Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	129 Hill St	open
Jab Management Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 Keystone Pl	open
Jak's Pub & Eatery	Casual dining · Bar		410 4th Ave	open
Jessup Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	201 Church St	open
Jessup Plaza Beverage Center	Other		1019 Constitution Ave Ste C	open
Jessup Side Bar	Bar		201 Church St	open
Jessup Side Bar	Bar		Constitution St	open
Jessup’s Corner Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	319 Church St	open
Pietro's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European · American	819 Church St	open
St. George's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	American · Juice / smoothies	304 Church St	open
The Caverna	Bar · Casual dining	Italian	602 Church St	open
The Eatery by Jessica LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Sandwiches · Breakfast	801 Hill St	open
Two Chefs On A Roll	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	46 Alberigi Dr	open
Wah Mei Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	130 Constitution Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	3	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	6	3	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	4	2	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	4	2	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	4	2	2	—	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	7	4	2	2	—	3	NAICS1997
2000	7	5	5	—	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	6	5	5	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	7	5	5	—	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	8	6	6	—	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	6	4	4	—	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	7	4	4	—	—	3	NAICS2002
2006	5	4	4	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	6	5	5	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	7	6	6	—	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	8	7	6	—	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	10	10	9	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	9	9	8	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	12	10	8	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	12	10	8	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	11	9	7	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	10	9	7	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	11	9	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	11	10	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	10	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 18434. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
18512	3.2 mi	25	2023
18452	3.3 mi	11	2023
18403	3.9 mi	21	2023
18519	4.7 mi	29	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.