BMIE Market 21209

Baltimore County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	30,126 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,063 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	11,621 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±525 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	26,465 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	12,054 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$91,437 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,548 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,655 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±62 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$440,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,335 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	6.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	38 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21209
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+15.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+11.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+52.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+26.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	37 (range 33–42) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.45) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	67 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21209. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.45, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83.1	83	40%	+33.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	67.6	68	35%	+23.7
Market Momentum Score	66.8	67	25%	+16.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	30,126	89	40%	+35.6
Median household income (ACS)	91,437	75	40%	+29.8
Households (ACS)	11,621	88	20%	+17.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	11.8	56	35%	+19.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.6	62	25%	+15.5
Population (ACS)	30,126	89	20%	+17.8
Median household income (ACS)	91,437	75	20%	+14.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	15.2	73	50%	+36.6
10-year restaurant growth	11.8	56	30%	+16.7
20-year restaurant growth	52	68	20%	+13.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (67)

By cuisine

Coffee 14 · American 10 · Dessert 10 · Pizza 8 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 6 · Japanese 5 · Sushi 5 · Asian 4 · Bakery 4 · Sandwiches 4 · BBQ 3 · French 3 · Italian 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Halal / kosher 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Mexican 2 · Seafood 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · European 1 · Greek 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Indian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Thai 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 41 · Café 11 · Dessert 10 · Bakery 9 · Bar 8 · Coffee shop 6 · Quick service 6 · Casual dining 5 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Catering 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Abbey Burger Mt. Washington	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers	1604 Kelly Ave	open
Accents Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Halal / kosher · American	2839 Smith Ave	open
Al Pacino Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Pizza · Middle Eastern	6080 Falls Rd	open
Arlon's Pizzeria & Carry Outs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4535 Falls Rd	open
Atwater's on Falls	Café	Coffee	1407 Clarkview Rd	open
Atwater's Ploughboy Kitchen	Café	Coffee	1425 Clarkview Rd Ste 300	open
Banksy's Cafe	Café	Coffee	6080 Falls Rd Ste 101	open
Baskin-Robbins Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Dessert	4535 Falls Rd	open
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	2841 Smith Avenue	open
Best Block in Mt. Washington	Bar		5601 Wexford Rd	open
Bonjour Bakery & Cafe	Bakery · Café	Bakery · French · Coffee	6070 Falls Rd	open
Bonnemaison	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · European	6115 Falls Rd	open
California Tortilla	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2588 Quarry Lake Dr	open
Charm City Cupcakes	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	1340 Smith Ave	open
Chat Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	2592 Quarry Lake Dr	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Quick service	Mexican	2588 Quarry Lake Dr Bldg E	open
Chiyo Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	1619 Sulgrave Ave	open
Citron Restaurant & Events	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Steakhouse · Seafood	2605 Quarry Lake Dr	open
Cocoaccino's	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	2831 Smith Ave	open
Curb Shoppe	Casual dining · Bar		5736 Falls Rd	open
Desert Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	1605 Sulgrave Ave	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	2001 W Cold Spring Ln	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	6243 Falls Rd Ste 102	open
Earth, Wood and Fire Earth, Wood & Fire - Fallston	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	1407 Clarkview Rd	open
Ethel's Creole Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern	1615 Sulgrave Ave	open
Ewf Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1407 Clarkview Rd Ste 200	open
Fleischmann's Vinegar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1900 Brand Ave	open
Garden & Grounds Bistro	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	1407 Clarkview Rd Ste 600	open
Genji	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	1330 Smith Ave	open
Haute Dog Carte	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	6070 Falls Rd	open
Hunan Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	2835 Smith Ave Ste J	open
J and P Illiano Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2620 Quarry Lake Dr	open
Jasmine Asian Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Sushi · Japanese	2592 Quarry Lake Dr	open
Jupiter's	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1405 Forge Ave	open
Kabab Stop	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	5719 Falls Rd	open
Key Coffee Roasters Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1407 Clarkview Rd	open
KoDee Cakes	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	1340 Smith Ave	open
La Food Marketa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · American	2620 Quarry Lake Dr	open
Le Bistro Du Village	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · Sandwiches	1609 Sulgrave Ave	open
Mandali jaju llc	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Bakery · Coffee · American	2628 QUARRY LAKE Dr	open
Miller's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	2849 Smith Ave	open
Mt Washington Pizza and Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	1620 Kelly Ave	open
Mt. Washington Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	American	5700 Newbury St.	open
Nourish Organics	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Vegetarian · Coffee	5710 Newbury St	open
Pepe's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Greek · American	6081 Falls Rd	open
Pizza Blitz Of Quarry Lake	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2622 Quarry Lake Dr	open
Pizza Boli's Pizza Boli's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5721 Falls Rd	open
Playa Bowls Playa Bowls	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	2632 Quarry Lake Dr	open
Ploughboy Soup	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1425 Clarkview Rd	open
Rita's Italian Ice Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard	Dessert · Bar	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	2550 Quarry Lake Dr	open
Sapori	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2823 Smith Ave	open
Serengeti Steakhouse Baltimore	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Halal / kosher	2839 Smith Ave	open
So Good BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering	BBQ	5736 Falls Rd	open
Soundbar Baltimore	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		5736 Falls Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	2520 Quarry Lake Dr	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	1340 Smith Ave	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2552 Quarry Lake Drive Suite 100, Bldg C	open
Sushi Hana	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	6080 Falls Rd	open
T And M Food Service	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1619 Sulgrave Ave	open
The Howell Food And Catering Company, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6080 Falls Rd Ste 101	open
The Nickel Taphouse	Bar		1604 Kelly Ave	open
Train Stop Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	1605 Sulgrave Ave	open
Tropicool Italian Ice	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	6083 Falls Rd	open
Uni Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	2592 Quarry Lake Dr	open
Woodrow’s BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	1607 Sulgrave Avenue	open
Yog Crepes Waffles and Frozen Yogurt	Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Breakfast	6053 Falls Rd	open
Aramark Services Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5801 Smith Ave Ste 1100	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	32	30	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	24	22	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	28	26	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	37	36	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	36	28	12	10	5	3	NAICS1997
1999	32	27	11	10	5	1	NAICS1997
2000	29	24	9	8	6	1	NAICS1997
2001	27	22	9	7	6	1	NAICS1997
2002	26	22	9	7	6	1	NAICS1997
2003	32	25	10	9	6	2	NAICS2002
2004	37	28	9	12	6	4	NAICS2002
2005	31	23	9	10	4	2	NAICS2002
2006	28	22	9	8	5	1	NAICS2002
2007	35	25	9	11	5	1	NAICS2002
2008	35	27	8	14	5	2	NAICS2007
2009	36	29	8	16	5	2	NAICS2007
2010	38	30	9	17	4	3	NAICS2007
2011	35	27	10	14	3	3	NAICS2007
2012	39	33	14	14	5	1	NAICS2012
2013	43	34	16	13	5	1	NAICS2012
2014	37	29	15	10	4	1	NAICS2012
2015	34	28	15	9	4	1	NAICS2012
2016	39	31	16	10	5	1	NAICS2012
2017	37	32	12	14	6	—	NAICS2017
2018	39	33	14	12	7	—	NAICS2017
2019	37	32	13	12	7	—	NAICS2017
2020	39	34	14	13	7	—	NAICS2017
2021	39	34	14	13	7	—	NAICS2017
2022	38	33	13	13	7	—	NAICS2022
2023	46	38	13	19	6	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21209. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21210	1.9 mi	17	2023
21215	2.3 mi	74	2023
21285	2.6 mi	1	2016
21212	2.6 mi	49	2023
21204	2.9 mi	94	2023
21252	3.0 mi	—
21208	3.3 mi	53	2023
21211	3.4 mi	82	2023
21153	3.6 mi	1	2013
21239	4.1 mi	9	2023
21093	4.5 mi	75	2023
21216	4.5 mi	11	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.