BMIE Market 21239

Baltimore city, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	27,346 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,200 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	12,080 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±649 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	28,793 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	12,505 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$62,650 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,875 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	37.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,367 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±52 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$207,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,748 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	2.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21239
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	2.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-30.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-25.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 6–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.05) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	28 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21239. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.05, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	66.5	66	40%	+26.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68.2	68	35%	+23.9
Market Momentum Score	28.2	28	25%	+7.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	27,346	87	40%	+34.8
Median household income (ACS)	62,650	35	40%	+13.8
Households (ACS)	12,080	89	20%	+17.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	12.5	56	35%	+19.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	3.3	97	25%	+24.2
Population (ACS)	27,346	87	20%	+17.4
Median household income (ACS)	62,650	35	20%	+6.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 28 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-10	19	50%	+9.3
10-year restaurant growth	12.5	56	30%	+16.9
20-year restaurant growth	-30.8	10	20%	+2.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (25)

By cuisine

American 5 · Chinese 4 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Asian 2 · Burgers 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Mexican 2 · Seafood 2 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Quick service 4 · Bakery 1 · Bar 1 · Casual dining 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3Vatos Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Seafood	1279 Limit Ave	open
B's Sweet Treats, MD	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	5726 Nasco Pl	open
Bears Den Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1500 Pentridge Rd	open
Chan's Chinese Restaurant Chan's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	6307 Sherwood Rd	open
Chung Mee Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	5646 the Alameda	open
Colin's Seafood and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · Steakhouse	1728 E Northern Pkwy	open
Domino's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6309 Sherwood Rd	open
Glo's Soul Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	5656 The Alameda	open
Hands Of Thelma Jeans Southern Style Cooking	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	6309 Sherwood Rd	open
Hip Hop Fish And Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1407 E Cold Spring Ln	open
Karaoke King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1534 Gleneagle Rd	open
Man vs Fries	Quick service		1129 Walters Ave	open
McLellan's Liquors	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	6320 Sherwood Rd	open
Mexican On The Run	Food truck	Mexican	6318 Sherwood Rd	open
MrBeast Burger	Quick service	Burgers · American	5636 The Alameda	open
Mt Pleasant Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	6001 Hillen Rd	open
Orient Express Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1411 E Cold Spring Ln	open
Ruby Tuesday	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1728 E Northern Pkwy	open
Sherwood Carryout	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	6309 Sherwood Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5650 The Alameda	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1722 E Northern Pkwy	open
The Wright Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	1229 Winston Ave	open
To Go Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	5600 The Alameda	open
Tomadough Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6532 Loch Hill Rd	open
Winston Apartments	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1260 Rossiter Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	10	7	2	4	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	11	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	14	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	24	20	4	14	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	16	11	2	9	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	18	13	1	12	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	15	12	1	11	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	17	13	1	12	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	15	12	1	11	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	15	12	1	10	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	15	12	1	10	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	12	9	1	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	8	1	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	12	9	1	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	9	1	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	8	1	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	13	9	1	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	8	1	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	10	2	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	12	10	—	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	10	—	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	9	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	9	—	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	9	—	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	9	—	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	15	9	—	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21239. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21251	1.1 mi	1	2016
21212	1.5 mi	49	2023
21214	1.5 mi	20	2023
21285	2.2 mi	1	2016
21252	2.4 mi	—
21218	2.5 mi	86	2023
21210	2.6 mi	17	2023
21206	3.2 mi	38	2023
21286	3.3 mi	61	2023
21213	3.5 mi	14	2023
21204	3.5 mi	94	2023
21234	3.5 mi	98	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.