BMIE Market 22043
Fairfax County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 25,750 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,289 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 9,927 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±526 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 24,302 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 9,767 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $145,881 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,780 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 38.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $2,174 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±94 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $881,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±42,596 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 4.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22043 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 5.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | -25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +15.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 18 (range 15–22) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.02) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 90 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 71 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 29 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22043. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.02, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 89.7 | 90 | 40% | +35.9 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 70.7 | 71 | 35% | +24.8 |
| Market Momentum Score | 28.9 | 29 | 25% | +7.2 |
Consumer Market Score: 90 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 25,750 | 86 | 40% | +34.3 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 145,881 | 96 | 40% | +38.3 |
| Households (ACS) | 9,927 | 85 | 20% | +17.1 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 71 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 0 | 35 | 35% | +12.3 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 5.8 | 89 | 25% | +22.2 |
| Population (ACS) | 25,750 | 86 | 20% | +17.2 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 145,881 | 96 | 20% | +19.1 |
Market Momentum Score: 29 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | -25 | 11 | 50% | +5.4 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 0 | 35 | 30% | +10.5 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 50 | 65 | 20% | +13.0 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (42)
By cuisine
Bakery 6 · American 5 · Asian 4 · Coffee 4 · Chicken / wings 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Japanese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Mexican 2 · Dessert 1 · Filipino 1 · Indian 1 · Italian 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Peruvian 1 · Pizza 1 · Seafood 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 23 · Quick service 8 · Bakery 6 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 4 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Dessert 2 · Fast casual 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Buffet 1 · Other 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48 Blocks Fine Candy | Dessert | 7777 Leesburg Pike | open | |
| 7799kafe | Café · Juice, smoothie, tea | Coffee · Juice / smoothies | 7799 Leesburg Pike | open |
| Astro Doughnuts & Fried Chicken | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 7511 Leesburg Pike | open |
| Astro Virginia Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 7511 Leesburg Pike | open | |
| Atrium Cafe | Buffet | 7799 Leesburg Pike | open | |
| Bing & Bao Chinese Street Food And Boba | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 7505 Leesburg Pike # D | open |
| Burger 7 Burger 7 | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers · American | 7505 Leesburg Pike | open |
| BurgerFi BurgerFi | Quick service | 168 W Falls Station Blvd | open | |
| Cakes by Linda | Bakery | Bakery | 7721 Fisher Dr | open |
| Cakes Unique | Bakery | Bakery | 2020 Powhatan St | open |
| Chain Bridge Road Pizza Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 7510 Leesburg Pike | open | |
| Chicken Salad Chick Chicken Salad Chick | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual | Healthy / salads / bowls · Chicken / wings | 7505 Leesburg Pike | open |
| China King Restaurant V | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 7500 Leesburg Pike | open |
| Cm Chicken Falls Church | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings · Asian | 7121 Leesburg Pike Ste B | open |
| Crisp & Juicy Crisp & Juicy Frederick | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Peruvian · Latin American (other) | 7520 Leesburg Pike | open |
| Dulces Delicias Bakery | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 2190 Pimmit Dr A | open |
| Halal Bowl | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean | 7501 Leesburg Pike Ste 129 | open |
| House Of Philly | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 7810 Lee Hwy | open | |
| Idylwood Grill & Wine Bar | Casual dining · Bar | Mediterranean · American | 2190 Pimmit Dr Unit B | open |
| Jason's Deli | Specialty food shop · Fast casual · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls | 7505 Leesburg Pike | open |
| Java Loco Coffee & Bubble Tea - Tysons Station | Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Coffee · Tea / bubble tea | 7516 Leesburg Pike | open |
| Jimmy John's Jimmy John's | Quick service · Other · Specialty food shop | Sandwiches | 7121 Leesburg Pike | open |
| Kitchen Oh | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese | 1923 Hillside Dr | open |
| La Petite Brioche | Bakery | Bakery | 2113 Grayson Pl | open |
| Ledo Pizza Ledo Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 7510 Leesburg Pike | open |
| Mama Lavash Bakery | Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea | Bakery · Juice / smoothies | 2190 Pimmit Dr | open |
| Mark's Pub | Bar · Casual dining | 2190 Pimmit Dr | open | |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 7101 Leesburg Pike | open |
| MINT Lounge | Bar | 7787 Leesburg Pike | open | |
| Mumbai Central Indian Fare | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Indian · American | 7505 VA-7 | open |
| Noodles & Company Noodles & Company | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Noodles / ramen / pho · American | 7511 Leesburg Pike | open |
| Peet's Coffee & Tea | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 7516a Leesburg Pike | open |
| Qdoba Qdoba | Quick service | 7511 Leesburg Pike | open | |
| R&L Bites Filipino Street Food “Turo-Turo” | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Filipino · Asian | 2228 Pimmit Run Ln | open |
| Shishka Lounge | Bar | 7787 Leesburg Pike | open | |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Quick service · Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 7501 Leesburg Pike | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 2250 Pimmit Dr | open |
| Taco Bamba Falls Church Taco Bamba | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 2190 Pimmit Dr | open |
| Taqueria Cancun | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 7810-G Lee Hwy | open |
| Thaisons | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai · Asian | 7501 Leesburg Pike | open |
| The Chop N' Room | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar | Seafood · Japanese · Sushi | 7801 Leesburg Pike | open |
| Tysons Pub | Bar | 7511 Leesburg Pike | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 13 | 13 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 11 | 11 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 10 | 10 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 14 | 14 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 16 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 3 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 5 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 6 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 6 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 5 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 4 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | — | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 6 | — | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 15 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 16 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 15 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 18 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 18 | 17 | 6 | 8 | 3 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 19 | 17 | 6 | 8 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 22 | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 21 | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 20 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 20 | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 19 | 17 | 5 | 9 | 3 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 17 | 15 | 5 | 8 | — | — | NAICS2022 |