BMIE Market 22101

Fairfax County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	30,953 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,518 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	11,014 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±405 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	29,887 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	11,345 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$250,001 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	47.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$3,501 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,449,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±71,384 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	13.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	55 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22101
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	19.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-8.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-6.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-6.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	54 (range 48–60) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.7 per year, r² 0.45) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	93 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	20 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22101. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.45, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	93.2	93	40%	+37.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55.7	56	35%	+19.5
Market Momentum Score	19.6	20	25%	+4.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 93 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	30,953	89	40%	+35.8
Median household income (ACS)	250,001	100	40%	+39.9
Households (ACS)	11,014	87	20%	+17.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-6.8	20	35%	+7.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	17.8	43	25%	+10.8
Population (ACS)	30,953	89	20%	+17.9
Median household income (ACS)	250,001	100	20%	+20.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 20 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-8.3	20	50%	+10.0
10-year restaurant growth	-6.8	20	30%	+6.0
20-year restaurant growth	-6.8	18	20%	+3.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (114)

By cuisine

Asian 14 · Pizza 11 · American 9 · Bakery 8 · Coffee 8 · Healthy / salads / bowls 8 · Italian 8 · Mediterranean 8 · Chinese 7 · Japanese 7 · Middle Eastern 7 · Sandwiches 7 · Dessert 5 · Burgers 4 · Mexican 4 · Sushi 4 · Thai 4 · European 3 · Greek 3 · French 2 · Indian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Seafood 2 · Steakhouse 2 · BBQ 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 86 · Quick service 11 · Bakery 8 · Café 7 · Casual dining 5 · Dessert 5 · Fast casual 5 · Bar 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Specialty food shop 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Other 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Amoo's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern · Mediterranean	6271 Old Dominion Dr	open
Aracosia McLean	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern · Steakhouse	1381 Beverly Rd	open
Archontiko Estiatorio	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean · European	1313 Old Chain Bridge Rd	open
ArTeA Restaurant + Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	American · Tea / bubble tea	6635B Old Dominion Dr	open
Asian Corner	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	1431 Center St	open
baddpizza baddpizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6263 Old Dominion Dr	open
Bento Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	6244 Old Dominion Dr	open
Beverly Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1350 Beverly Rd Ste 109	open
Big Buns Big Buns	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	1336 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Bistro Vivant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French	1394 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Blackrock Holdings Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1497 Chain Bridge Rd Ste 205	open
Boss Hog's Smoked Bar- B-Q	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	6811 Elm St	open
Boston Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1408 Chain Bridge Rd Ste 1	open
Cafe China	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	6271 Old Dominion Dr	open
Cafe Levantine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern · Mediterranean	6829 Elm St Ste 150	open
Café Monet	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	6910 Fleetwood Rd	open
Cafe Oggi	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6671 Old Dominion Dr	open
Cafe Taj	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	1379 Beverly Rd	open
Cafe Tatti	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · European	6627 Old Dominion Dr	open
Call Your Mother Deli Call Your Mother Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	6216 Old Dominion Dr	open
Capri Ristorante Italiano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	6825 Redmond Dr	open
CAVA CAVA	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Mediterranean · Healthy / salads / bowls	1445 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Chesapeake Bagel Bakery	Bakery	Bakery · Sandwiches	6815 Old Dominion Dr	open
Chiang Mai Thai Cookhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	6813 Elm St	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	6707 Old Dominion Dr	open
Chop N Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Caribbean · Healthy / salads / bowls · Chicken / wings	1375 Beverly Rd	open
Chopt Creative Salad Co. Chopt Creative Salad Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	1449A Chain Bridge Rd	open
Community Food Engine Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6848 Elm St	open
Corner Bistro	Quick service		6710 Old Dominion Dr	open
Dal Grano	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Italian · Sandwiches	1386 Chain Bridge Rd	open
District Taco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1334 Chain Bridge Rd Ste 103	open
Divan Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern	1313 Old Chain Bridge Rd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	1420 Chain Bridge Road	open
El Tio Tex-Mex Grill El Tio Tex-Mex Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican · Latin American (other)	1433 Center St	open
Esaan Thai McLean	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	1307 Old Chain Bridge Rd	open
Evo Bistro	Casual dining		1313 Old Chain Bridge Rd	open
Fahrenheit Asian	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Chinese	1313 Dolley Madison Blvd #103	open
Fluffy Thoughts Cake	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	6257 Old Dominion Dr	open
Fluffy Thoughts Cakes	Bakery	Bakery	1320 Old Chain Bridge Rd	open
Forbidden City Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	6732 Curran St	open
Fresh Baguette	Bakery	Bakery	6707 Old Dominion Dr	open
Ghadah Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	1350 Beverly Rd Ste 109	open
Greenberry's Coffee Co.	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	6839 Redmond Dr	open
House of Fortune	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	6715 Lowell Ave	open
House Of Shanghai Inc - Tachibana	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6715 Lowell Ave	open
Ichiban Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	6821 Old Dominion Dr	open
Il Forno	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1327 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Interim Housing Solutions	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1340 Old Chain Bridge Rd	open
It Takes The Cake	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	1235 Ingleside Ave	open
Italian Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	6813 Elm St	open
J. Gilbert's J. Gilbert's Wood-Fired Steaks & Seafood Glastonbury	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood · American	6930 Old Dominion Dr	open
Joe's Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	6710 Old Dominion Dr	open
Kazan Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern · Mediterranean	6813 Redmond Dr	open
Le Petit Mistral	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6710 Old Dominion Dr	open
Listrani's McLean	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	6808 Old Dominion Dr	open
Madison Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Fast casual	Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	1320 Old Chain Bridge Rd #140	open
Maman Joon Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	1408 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Mand Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6271A Old Dominion Dr	open
Masala Indian Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Asian	1394 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Matchbox Matchbox Restaurants	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Sandwiches	1340 Chain Bridge Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	6920 Old Dominion Dr	open
McKeever's Pub	Bar		6625 Old Dominion Dr	open
McLean Family Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1321 Chain Bridge Rd	open
McLean Pizza Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1434 Center St	open
Miyagi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	6719 Curran St	open
Mo &amp Jh Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6828 Old Dominion Dr	open
Moby Dick House of Kabob Moby Dick House of Kabob	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern · Mediterranean	6854 Old Dominion Dr	open
Mylos Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Greek · American	6238 Old Dominion Dr	open
Naked Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1363 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Neutral Ground Bar + Kitchen	Casual dining · Bar	American	6641 Old Dominion Dr	open
New Star Asian Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	6222 Old Domion Drive	open
Ocean M	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1381 Beverly Rd	open
Orbit South Balkan	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		6885 Elm St	open
Otosan Ramen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	6813 Elm St	open
Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1300 old chain bridge rd	open
Pasa Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	1315 Old Chain Bridge Rd	open
Peter Chang McLean	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	6715 Lowell Ave Unit A	open
Pikoteo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · BBQ	6811 Elm St	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6263 Old Dominion Dr	open
Popeye's Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service		6509 Divine St	open
Pulcinella Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	6852 Old Dominion Dr	open
QDOBA Mexican Eats	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	Mclean	open
Qing Dao Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6222 Old Dominion Dr	open
Red Tomato Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	1327 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Robeks Fresh Juices & Smoothies Robeks Fresh Juices & Smoothies	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	6661-A Old Dominion Dr	open
Rocco's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	1357 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Santini's New York Style Deli Santini's New York Style Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Pizza	1443 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Sho Sushi and Izakaya	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	6828 Old Dominion Dr Unit D	open
Social Restaurant & Oyster Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1307 Old Chain Bridge Rd	open
Sorn Thai Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	6224 Old Dominion Dr	open
South Block South Block	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	6246 Old Dominion Dr	open
Sprinkle Me B • Chocolate Brigadeiro	Dessert	Dessert		open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	1330 Chain Bridge Rd (Safeway - Mclean, #1300)	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	6214 Old Dominion Dr	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1438 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1500 Tysons McLean Blvd	open
Sweet Leaf Sweet Leaf Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls · Vegetarian	1359 Old Chain Bridge Rd	open
Sweetbites Cafe & Bakery	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	6845 Elm St	open
sweetFrog Premium Frozen Yogurt sweetFrog Premium Frozen Yogurt	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	1390 Chain Bridge Rd #10008	open
sweetgreen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	6707 Old Dominion Dr	open
Tachibana Japanese Restaurant Tachibana	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	6715 Lowell Ave	open
Tama Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	6828 Old Dominion Dr Ste D	open
The Greek Taverna	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek	6828 Old Dominion Dr	open
The Italian Oven	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	6852 Old Dominion Dr	open
The Pub	Bar		6827 Redmond Dr	open
The Union	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1379 Beverly Rd	open
Vkl Llc / Robeks Mclean	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6661A Old Dominion Dr	open
Wilkinson Wine Cellar LLC	Winery / distillery / taproom		1390 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Wok 'N Roll Chinese Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1371 Beverly Rd	open
Z Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1408 Chain Bridge Rd	open
Arhontiko Elliniko Grill Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1311 Old Chain Bridge Rd	closed
Assaggi Osteria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	6641 Old Dominion Dr	closed
Continental Deli Inc	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	6845 Elm St Ste 102	closed
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	6829 Elm St Ste 150	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	56	55	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	56	56	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	64	64	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	66	66	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	59	55	26	24	5	—	NAICS1997
1999	61	55	27	23	5	—	NAICS1997
2000	60	53	26	22	5	—	NAICS1997
2001	61	54	25	24	5	—	NAICS1997
2002	67	51	22	22	6	—	NAICS1997
2003	72	59	26	25	7	—	NAICS2002
2004	69	56	24	25	6	—	NAICS2002
2005	79	64	29	28	6	—	NAICS2002
2006	77	62	28	27	6	—	NAICS2002
2007	72	58	26	25	6	—	NAICS2002
2008	72	56	24	24	7	—	NAICS2007
2009	79	61	28	26	6	—	NAICS2007
2010	75	59	27	25	6	—	NAICS2007
2011	76	60	27	25	7	—	NAICS2007
2012	78	64	30	25	8	—	NAICS2012
2013	75	59	30	22	6	—	NAICS2012
2014	80	65	34	23	7	—	NAICS2012
2015	75	63	30	25	8	—	NAICS2012
2016	92	64	33	22	9	—	NAICS2012
2017	96	67	31	26	10	—	NAICS2017
2018	87	60	27	25	8	—	NAICS2017
2019	88	61	29	26	6	—	NAICS2017
2020	71	60	28	26	6	—	NAICS2017
2021	81	59	29	24	6	—	NAICS2017
2022	79	56	27	24	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	79	55	29	22	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22101. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
20812	2.2 mi	1	2016
20818	2.3 mi	5	2023
20816	2.7 mi	14	2023
22213	3.2 mi	6	2023
22207	3.2 mi	52	2023
22043	3.2 mi	15	2023
22102	3.6 mi	106	2023
22046	3.8 mi	75	2023
20817	4.0 mi	37	2023
20016	4.0 mi	60	2023
22205	4.2 mi	13	2023
20007	4.3 mi	150	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.