BMIE Market 23605

Newport News city, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,332 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,070 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,321 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±519 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,854 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,683 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$53,815 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,753 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	34.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,222 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±75 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$194,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,207 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	3.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	22 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 23605
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	20.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-8.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-8.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-4.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-35.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	23 (range 20–26) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	39 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	38 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	20 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 23605. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	53.5	54	40%	+21.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	37.6	38	35%	+13.2
Market Momentum Score	19.5	20	25%	+4.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,332	75	40%	+29.9
Median household income (ACS)	53,815	20	40%	+8.0
Households (ACS)	6,321	78	20%	+15.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 38 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-8.3	19	35%	+6.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.5	48	25%	+11.9
Population (ACS)	13,332	75	20%	+15.0
Median household income (ACS)	53,815	20	20%	+4.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 20 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-8.3	20	50%	+10.0
10-year restaurant growth	-8.3	19	30%	+5.8
20-year restaurant growth	-4.4	19	20%	+3.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (56)

By cuisine

American 14 · Chinese 8 · Burgers 5 · Coffee 5 · Seafood 5 · Asian 4 · Chicken / wings 4 · Pizza 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Bakery 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Mexican 3 · Dessert 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · African 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Caribbean 1 · Japanese 1 · Korean 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 35 · Quick service 15 · Casual dining 6 · Bakery 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Food truck 3 · Bar 2 · Café 2 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
7 Brew Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	5018 Mercury Blvd	open
Blaque Bistro llc	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	5014 Jefferson Ave	open
Captain D's Captain D's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	10159 Jefferson Ave	open
Caribbean Castle	Food truck	Caribbean	5200 W Mercury Blvd	open
Chanello's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	10153 Jefferson Ave	open
Charlie Chan Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	5862 Jefferson Ave	open
Chick-fil-a	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	5018 Mercury Blvd	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	5018 Mercury Blvd	open
China 88	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Seafood · Asian	605 Newmarket Dr N #19	open
Cs Food Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9900 Jefferson Ave	open
Douries	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9811 Jefferson Ave	open
Dunkin	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	6104 Jefferson Ave	open
Forrest Seafood Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood · American	6139 Jefferson Ave	open
Gallantry ZG	Coffee shop	Coffee	892 South Ave	open
Golden City Buffet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	6065 Jefferson Ave	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	8104 Newmarket Dr	open
Harley's Hideaway	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9811 Jefferson Ave	open
Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4994-B W Mercury Blvd	open
Judicious Rock	Coffee shop	Coffee	705 South Ave	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	5010 Mercury Blvd	open
KFC KFC	Quick service		5010 Mercury Blvd	open
La Fiesta Mexican Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	5000 W Mercury Blvd	open
La Patrona	Food truck	Latin American (other)	6139 Jefferson Ave Ste J	open
La Poblanita Food Truck LLC	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	5103 W Mercury Blvd	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	10119 Jefferson Ave	open
Lormnava Afrik Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	African · American	10153 Jefferson Ave A	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	6100 Jefferson Ave	open
Mi Lindo Puebla Tienda & Restaurante Mexicano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	10021 Jefferson Ave	open
Mona Korean & Japanese	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean	9921 Jefferson Ave	open
New China King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	10153 Jefferson Ave Ste A	open
No. 1 Chinese Restaraunt	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	728 Willow Dr	open
Panda Express	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		6104 Jefferson Ave	open
Piccadilly Restaurants PICCADILLY	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Chinese	111 Newmarket Sq	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5000 W Mercury Blvd	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	5201 Mercury Blvd	open
Rick's Cheese Steak Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Burgers	9900 Jefferson Ave	open
Rocky Mount BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	10113 Jefferson Ave	open
Shun Xing Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	12 Newmarket Sq	open
Shun Xing Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	12 Newmarket Square	open
Skrimp Shack Skrimp Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Sandwiches	605 Newmarket Dr N	open
Sparty On Pizza Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10119 Jefferson Ave	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	5030 Mercury Blvd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Other · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	605 Newmarket Dr Ste 4	open
Sunday 2911 Soul Food Kitchen LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	5014 Jefferson Ave	open
Sunrise Pizzeria Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	10158 Jefferson Ave	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	5020 W Mercury Blvd	open
Tanpopo Ramen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	605 Newmarket Dr N	open
The Alley	Bar		100 Newmarket Square	open
TheCobblerCafe	Café · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert · Bakery	10153 Jefferson Ave C	open
Tieda Hispana Herrera	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	5005 Jefferson Ave	open
Vincent's Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	5828 Jefferson Ave	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	601 McLawhorne Dr	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	6111 Jefferson Ave	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	5113 W. Mercury Blvd.	open
What-A-Burger	Quick service	Burgers · American	6117 Jefferson Ave	open
Deja Vu Restaurant & Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6128 Jefferson Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	35	34	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	30	29	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	30	28	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	28	25	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	31	27	10	15	1	3	NAICS1997
1999	32	29	13	14	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	30	27	11	14	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	28	25	10	14	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	26	23	9	13	—	3	NAICS1997
2003	27	23	10	12	—	4	NAICS2002
2004	25	23	9	13	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	28	26	11	14	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	29	27	10	15	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	25	23	8	14	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	28	26	11	14	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	25	24	7	16	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	30	29	11	17	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	25	24	9	14	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	25	24	10	13	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	25	24	9	14	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	22	21	9	11	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	27	24	9	14	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	24	21	6	14	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	25	22	7	14	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	26	24	7	16	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	26	24	7	16	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	26	24	7	16	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	26	24	7	16	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	23	21	8	12	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	24	22	6	14	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 23605. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
23601	2.7 mi	48	2023
23666	3.1 mi	136	2023
23607	3.4 mi	21	2023
23661	3.9 mi	10	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.