BMIE Market 37409

Hamilton County, Tennessee · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,357 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±586 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,553 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±276 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,851 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,435 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$74,754 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,588 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,341 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±304 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$267,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±27,799 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	4.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 37409
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	38.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-42.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-11.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-42.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 4–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.33) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	36 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	32 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	9 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 37409. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.33, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Tennessee and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 472, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 36 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	54.9	55	40%	+21.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	32.2	32	35%	+11.3
Market Momentum Score	9.4	9	25%	+2.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,357	54	40%	+21.6
Median household income (ACS)	74,754	55	40%	+21.9
Households (ACS)	1,553	57	20%	+11.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 32 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	35%	+3.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	23.8	29	25%	+7.2
Population (ACS)	3,357	54	20%	+10.8
Median household income (ACS)	74,754	55	20%	+11.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 9 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-42.9	7	50%	+3.3
10-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	30%	+2.8
20-year restaurant growth	-11.1	17	20%	+3.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (28)

By cuisine

Mexican 5 · BBQ 3 · Coffee 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Sandwiches 2 · American 1 · Asian 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Dessert 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Pizza 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 18 · Bar 3 · Café 3 · Dessert 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Food truck 1 · Other 1 · Quick service 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
1885 Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	3914 Saint Elmo Ave	open
Amigos Mexican Cocina St Elmo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3812 Tennessee Ave	open
Blimpie	Quick service		3800 Tennessee Ave	open
California Smothered Burritos	Food truck	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	5612 Alabama Ave	open
Catering To The Stars	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5700 Tennessee Ave	open
Clumpies Ice Cream Co.	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	3917 Saint Elmo Ave	open
Common Table	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3413 Broad St	open
Goodman Coffee Roasters - St. Elmo	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	3913 St Elmo Ave	open
Humphrey-davisllc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4001 Saint Elmo Ave	open
Little Coyote	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Mexican	3950 Tennessee Ave	open
Mad Knight Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		4015 Tennessee Ave	open
Moccasin Bend Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom		3210 Broad St	open
Mojo Burrito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3815 Saint Elmo Ave	open
Mr. T's Pizza & Ice Cream	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Ice cream / frozen desserts	3924 Tennessee Ave	open
Mt. Vernon Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3535 Broad St	open
Plus Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	3800 St Elmo Ave	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	3352 Broad St	open
Sawasdee \| Thai Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	4008 St Elmo Ave	open
Scenic City Wine	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		3933 St Elmo Ave	open
Slick's Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3950 Tennessee Ave	open
St Elmo Deli and Grill	Other	Sandwiches	3931 Saint Elmo Ave	open
Sugar's Ribs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	3950 Tennessee Ave	open
Tacos El Tote	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5601 St Elmo Ave	open
The Hot Chocolatier - St Elmo	Dessert	Dessert	5525 St Elmo Ave	open
The Hummus Bowl	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern	3931 St Elmo Ave	open
The Purple Daisy Picnic Cafe	Café	Coffee · Sandwiches · BBQ	4001 St Elmo Ave	open
The Tap House	Bar		3800 St Elmo Ave #114	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Healthy / salads / bowls · Hawaiian / Pacific	3535 Broad St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	14	14	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	15	15	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	14	14	5	9	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	14	14	4	10	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	12	12	5	7	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	10	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	10	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	13	12	6	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	14	13	6	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	14	12	5	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	10	10	4	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	11	5	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	11	5	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	11	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	12	6	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	12	12	5	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	13	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	15	14	5	7	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	14	14	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	14	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	14	6	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	12	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	7	5	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 37409. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
37410	1.4 mi	1	2016
37350	1.4 mi	3	2023
37408	2.0 mi	39	2023
37407	2.7 mi	7	2023
37402	2.8 mi	67	2023
37450	3.0 mi	1	2016
37403	3.5 mi	21	2023
37404	3.8 mi	17	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.