BMIE Market 37410

Hamilton County, Tennessee · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,129 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±723 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,636 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±253 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,886 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,801 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$28,708 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,039 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	24.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$855 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±213 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$153,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±55,711 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	3.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	1 2016 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2016 detail (NAICS2012) · by USPS ZIP 37410
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	Not yet derived
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2011 → 2016, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 1996 → 2016, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2021	1 (range 1–2) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 1995–2016 (9 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.03) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	43 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	35 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?
Market Momentum Score	38 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 37410. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 1995–2016, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.03, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Tennessee and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 472, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	35.2	35	40%	+14.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56.1	56	35%	+19.6
Market Momentum Score	37.8	38	25%	+9.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 35 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,129	57	40%	+22.9
Median household income (ACS)	28,708	2	40%	+0.8
Households (ACS)	1,636	58	20%	+11.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	2.4	98	25%	+37.9
Population (ACS)	4,129	57	20%	+17.6
Median household income (ACS)	28,708	2	20%	+0.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 38 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+29.8
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+7.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (9)

By cuisine

American 4 · BBQ 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Bakery 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Coffee 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 6 · Bakery 1 · Bar 1 · Café 1 · Casual dining 1 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Chatter Box Cafe	Café	Coffee · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	1108 W 33rd St	open
Cocoa Cafe Chattanooga	Restaurant (service type not stated)		618 W 38th St	open
Coldfusions rolled ice cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	0 E 38th St #000	open
Hoff & Pepper	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Bakery	164 W 31st St	open
Mama Yo's Soul Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · BBQ	3701 Alton Park Blvd	open
Maynells Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · British / Irish pub food	107 W 38th St	open
Nephews Bar Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		4380 Dorris St	open
Southside Market Southside Market	Specialty food shop	BBQ · American	202 W 38th St	open
Southside Sammich Shop	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3431 Alton Park Blvd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
2011	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 37410. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
37409	1.4 mi	8	2023
37407	1.4 mi	7	2023
37408	2.0 mi	39	2023
37350	2.2 mi	3	2023
37404	2.9 mi	17	2023
37402	3.1 mi	67	2023
37450	3.3 mi	1	2016
37403	3.4 mi	21	2023
30741	3.9 mi	8	2023
37412	4.9 mi	56	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.