BMIE Market 38126

Shelby County, Tennessee · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,946 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±746 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,892 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±393 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,334 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,002 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$30,071 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,488 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	30.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$787 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±85 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$59,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,276 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	1.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	4 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 38126
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	4.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-42.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-63.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 4–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.62) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	53 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	39 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	66 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 38126. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.62, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Tennessee and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 472, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	39.5	39	40%	+15.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60.1	60	35%	+21.0
Market Momentum Score	65.9	66	25%	+16.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,946	63	40%	+25.3
Median household income (ACS)	30,071	2	40%	+0.9
Households (ACS)	2,892	66	20%	+13.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	35%	+25.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.7	85	25%	+21.4
Population (ACS)	5,946	63	20%	+12.6
Median household income (ACS)	30,071	2	20%	+0.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	33.3	85	50%	+42.5
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	30%	+22.0
20-year restaurant growth	-42.9	7	20%	+1.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (31)

By cuisine

American 5 · Chicken / wings 5 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Burgers 2 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 2 · BBQ 1 · Caribbean 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Bar 9 · Quick service 4 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Café 2 · Dessert 2 · Casual dining 1 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
141 Carolina Partners Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		141 E Carolina Ave	open
Angels Food	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Casual dining	American	846 Porter St	open
Art House Café	Café	Coffee	1023 Mississippi Blvd	open
Carolina Watershed	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	141 East Carolina Avenue	open
Checkers Checkers and Rally's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	434 E EH Crump Blvd	open
Chester's Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	272 S Danny Thomas Blvd	open
Fadil Priyono	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	998 Mississippi Blvd	open
God's Son Bikers Lounge	Bar		747 E E.H.Crump Blvd	open
J & B Lounge	Bar		687 Walnut St	open
J & J Lounge	Bar		1037 Mississippi Blvd	open
Jean's Wingz and Thingz	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chicken / wings	275 E E.H.Crump Blvd	open
Jimmy's Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	432 E H CRUMP Blvd	open
Kisha's Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		929 Porter St	open
Little Bettie Wiseacre Brewing Company	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Brewery / taproom	Pizza	398 S B.B. King Blvd	open
Mason's	Bar		429 E Georgia Ave	open
Memphis Jamaican Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	237 Vance Ave	open
N' Cup Chocolate	Dessert	Dessert	870 Vance Ave	open
New Club Paradise	Bar		645 E Georgia Ave	open
Pappy's Coffee Service	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	234 East St	open
Porter Street Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Healthy / salads / bowls	929 Porter St	open
Raybo's Wings and Things	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · BBQ	929 Porter St	open
The Chicken Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Chicken / wings	275 E E.H.Crump Blvd	open
The Four Way Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		998 Mississippi Blvd	open
The HUB Lounge: Community Culture Concessions	Bar		515 E EH Crump Blvd	open
The Soul Train	Bar		645 E Georgia Ave	open
Vegas Lounge	Bar		809 S Danny Thomas Blvd	open
Wayne's Candy	Dessert	Dessert	164 E Carolina Ave	open
Wendy's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	225 E Eh Crump Blvd	open
Willie Moore's Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	Lucerne Pl	open
Wiseacre Brewery Downtown Taproom	Brewery / taproom · Bar		234 Butler Ave	open
Lunchbox Eats	Other	Sandwiches	288 S 4th St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	10	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	10	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	9	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	10	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	12	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	10	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	7	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	10	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	8	6	3	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	6	4	2	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	8	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	6	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	5	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	6	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	6	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	5	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	5	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	6	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	7	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	4	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	6	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	7	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 38126. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
38105	1.8 mi	15	2023
38106	1.9 mi	15	2023
38103	2.1 mi	100	2023
38104	2.3 mi	130	2023
38107	3.2 mi	5	2023
38114	3.9 mi	22	2023
38112	4.1 mi	21	2023
38132	4.6 mi	2	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.