BMIE Market 38105

Shelby County, Tennessee · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,534 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±532 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,242 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±328 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,184 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,546 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$34,015 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,235 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$997 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±77 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$90,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,709 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	1.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 38105
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+87.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+66.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 13–22) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.45) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	48 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	40 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	58 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 38105. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.45, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Tennessee and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 472, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	39.8	40	40%	+15.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50.3	50	35%	+17.6
Market Momentum Score	57.5	58	25%	+14.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,534	62	40%	+24.8
Median household income (ACS)	34,015	3	40%	+1.3
Households (ACS)	3,242	68	20%	+13.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	87.5	90	35%	+31.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	27.1	24	25%	+5.9
Population (ACS)	5,534	62	20%	+12.4
Median household income (ACS)	34,015	3	20%	+0.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	87.5	90	30%	+26.9
20-year restaurant growth	25	49	20%	+9.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (39)

By cuisine

American 10 · Chicken / wings 5 · Burgers 4 · Coffee 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Breakfast 3 · BBQ 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Mexican 2 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 27 · Quick service 10 · Bar 9 · Café 4 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
American Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)		795 Poplar Ave	open
Another Roadside Attraction Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)		679 Adams Ave	open
Bass Pro Pyramid Observation Deck Bass Pro Shops Fitness Series	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	1 Bass Pro Dr	open
BT Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Mexican	80 N Pauline St	open
Checkers	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	844 Poplar Ave	open
Chick-fil-A	Quick service		550 Uptown Street	open
Church's Texas Chicken Church's Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	925 Poplar Ave	open
Cielo, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		679 Adams Ave	open
Cozy Corner Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	735 North Pkwy	open
Crossroads Tavern & Grille	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	250 N Main St	open
Crumpy's Hot Wings Downtown	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · American	336 N Dunlap St	open
Encore Cafe	Quick service · Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	726 N Parkway	open
Grind City Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	477 N 5th St	open
Growlers	Bar		1191 Poplar Ave	open
Guac Fresh Mex	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican · Breakfast	782 Washington Ave	open
IHOP	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	136 N Pauline St	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	200 N. Danny Thomas Blvd	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings		open
Khairun’s Kitchen	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches		open
King's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	212 N 4th St	open
Krissy's Soul Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	774 Poplar Ave	open
Laurelhill	Bar		671 Jefferson Ave	open
Lennys Grill & Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	80 N Pauline St	open
Memphis 8, TN American Deli	Quick service		795 Poplar Ave, Memphis, TN 38105, United States	open
Memphis Grizzlies House	Bar		350 N 3rd St	open
Memphis Pyramid Dining & Banquets	Bar	American	1 Bass Pro Dr	open
Memphis Sweets	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Bakery · Coffee	726 North Pkwy	open
Mississippi Terrace	Bar		1 Bass Pro Dr	open
Notes & Provisions Restaurant and Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining		300 N 2nd St	open
Pop-A-Roos Gourmet popcorn shoppe	Dessert	Dessert	726 N Parkway	open
Sabrosura Mexican and Cuban Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		782 Washington Ave	open
Shree Sai Ram 112 Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		80 N Pauline St	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	262 Danny Thomas Pl	open
Subway	Other · Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	464 N Main St	open
Sunrise Memphis	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	670 Jefferson Ave	open
The Lookout	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1 Bass Pro Dr	open
Uptown Office Cafe	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	594 N 2nd St, Memphis, TN 38105-1634	open
Wahlburgers Wahlburgers	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Burgers · American	1 Bass Pro Dr	open
Zuberi Zings	Food truck	Chicken / wings · American	726 North Pkwy	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	10	7	3	4	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	10	8	4	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	9	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	11	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	15	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	16	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	17	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	16	12	5	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	18	15	7	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	16	13	5	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	15	12	5	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	12	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	13	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	13	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	12	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	12	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	15	13	4	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	16	13	5	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	14	12	5	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	17	15	7	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	19	17	7	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	12	4	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	13	3	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	14	5	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	15	6	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 38105. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
38103	1.2 mi	100	2023
38107	1.5 mi	5	2023
38126	1.8 mi	4	2023
38104	2.2 mi	130	2023
38112	3.3 mi	21	2023
38106	3.5 mi	15	2023
38108	4.4 mi	7	2023
38114	4.7 mi	22	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.