BMIE Market 43046

Fairfield County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,946 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±404 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,270 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±155 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,396 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,818 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$86,864 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,260 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	51.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,030 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±236 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$281,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,199 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	26.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 43046
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	20.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+40.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+250.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 5–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.26) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	70 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 43046. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.26, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	59.5	59	40%	+23.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52.6	53	35%	+18.4
Market Momentum Score	70.5	70	25%	+17.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,946	52	40%	+20.7
Median household income (ACS)	86,864	70	40%	+28.1
Households (ACS)	1,270	54	20%	+10.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	35%	+21.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	23.8	29	25%	+7.2
Population (ACS)	2,946	52	20%	+10.3
Median household income (ACS)	86,864	70	20%	+14.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	40	87	50%	+43.7
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	30%	+18.0
20-year restaurant growth	16.7	44	20%	+8.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (15)

By cuisine

American 3 · Coffee 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Bakery 2 · Breakfast 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Mexican 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 8 · Bakery 3 · Casual dining 3 · Bar 2 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Quick service 2 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
52 Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	12478 Lancaster St	open
Denny's Restaurant	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Breakfast · Sandwiches · Coffee · American	10480 Baltimore Rd SW	open
Dockside Donuts	Bakery	Bakery	12474 Lancaster St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	10480 Baltimore Rd SW	open
Hereinafter Cocktail Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		3430 N Bank Rd NE	open
Hometown Hot Dogs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Hot dogs	12031 Lancaster St	open
Island House	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood	2977 Greenlawn Ave	open
Karen's Bakery And Custom Cakes	Bakery	Bakery	12474 Lancaster St	open
Lakebound Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	12404 Lancaster St	open
Millersport Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	11985 Lancaster St	open
New Village Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	12404 Lancaster St	open
Roxy's Pizza & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	12110 Lancaster St	open
That One Place	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Casual dining	Sandwiches · American	12468 Lancaster St	open
The Canal on Buckeye Lake Breakfast and Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Mexican	12045 Lancaster St	open
Weldon's Ice Cream Factory	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	2887 Canal Dr	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	2	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	9	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	8	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	10	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	5	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	7	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	9	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	8	6	—	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	7	5	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	9	6	4	2	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	8	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	6	6	6	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	6	6	6	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	6	5	5	—	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	7	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	5	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	5	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	6	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	7	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	7	6	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	7	5	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 43046. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
43008	3.7 mi	11	2023
43157	4.1 mi	1	1995
43105	4.5 mi	9	2023
43025	4.9 mi	11	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.