BMIE Market 43605

Lucas County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	24,441 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,501 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,806 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±521 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	28,346 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	12,398 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$39,118 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,562 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	33.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$835 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±88 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$49,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,560 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	7.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	21 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 43605
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+31.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-12.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	19 (range 15–23) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.10) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	53 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	69 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 43605. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.10, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	53.2	53	40%	+21.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.6	59	35%	+20.5
Market Momentum Score	68.6	69	25%	+17.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	24,441	85	40%	+33.9
Median household income (ACS)	39,118	6	40%	+2.2
Households (ACS)	9,806	85	20%	+17.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	35%	+21.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.6	78	25%	+19.5
Population (ACS)	24,441	85	20%	+17.0
Median household income (ACS)	39,118	6	20%	+1.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	31.3	84	50%	+41.9
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	30%	+18.0
20-year restaurant growth	16.7	44	20%	+8.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (70)

By cuisine

American 13 · Mexican 7 · Burgers 5 · Latin American (other) 4 · Coffee 3 · Italian 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Seafood 3 · Bakery 2 · Japanese 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Sushi 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · European 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 35 · Bar 28 · Casual dining 9 · Quick service 5 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Buffet 1 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Admiral's American Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	26 Main St	open
Bar Edm	Bar		128 Main St	open
Beer 30	Bar		1316 Front St	open
Biggby Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	1401 Liberty St	open
Bluebird Cafe	Bar		1748 woodville	open
Bottom Line	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2053 Starr Ave	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	802 Front St	open
Candi Inc. Burger St	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	367 Burger St	open
Central Hot Dog	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American · Hot dogs · Breakfast	626 Front St	open
Chrislan Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1343 Miami St	open
Comis - Where Friends Meet	Casual dining · Bar		1527 E Broadway St	open
Cousino's Navy Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)		30 Main St	open
Deb's Soft Kreme	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1326 Navarre Ave	open
Eastside Cantina	Bar		125 Oak St	open
El Rincon2llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	649 Woodville Rd	open
El Vaquero Mexican Restaurant El Vaquero Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	24 Main St	open
Epic Buffet	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Buffet	American	1968 Miami St	open
Evanoff Community Center	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1301 Starr Ave	open
Final Cut Steak & Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood · American	1968 Miami St	open
H Lounge - Hollywood Casino	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		777 Hollywood Blvd	open
Hamburger Mary's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	26 Main St	open
Hangers East Side Saloon	Bar		531 Oak St	open
Homeboys Sports Bar and Grill	Bar · Casual dining		502 Main St	open
Irish Buffalo	Bar		418 E Broadway St	open
Jills Bar and Grill	Bar		11800 Miami St	open
Jordan's Place	Bar		111 Euclid Ave	open
Juanitos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1367 Miami St	open
Last Chance Saloon	Bar		457 Oak St	open
Leslie's Kitchen	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · American		open
Maddog	Bar		1014 Starr Ave	open
Mainstreet Bar & Grill	Bar		141 Main St	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused	Pizza	149 Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	90 Main St	open
Michael's Catering	Café · Catering · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	101 Main St	open
Midwest Marys Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		26 Main St	open
Nickel Bar & Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	129 Euclid Ave	open
Papa's Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		1328 Liberty St	open
Pitchers Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		558 E Broadway St	open
Real Seafood Co of Toledo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	22 Main St	open
Real Seafood Company Toledo Real Seafood Company Bay City	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood · American	22 Main St	open
Regalo	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1968 Miami St	open
Reventon Latino	Bar		18 Main St	open
Robys NightClub	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		601 E Broadway St	open
Rooster Inn	Bar		827 Starr Ave	open
Rumpus Room	Bar		2212 Consaul St	open
Shobu by Kengo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	1968 Miami St	open
Shortys Backyard Smoke House	Food truck			open
Sorrentos Family Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2001 Starr Ave	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	648 Main St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1896 Front St	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	708 Front St	open
Taco El Rey	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1738 Woodville Rd	open
Tacos El Rancho	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	899-839 Front St	open
Taqueria Otates	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	708 E Broadway St	open
Teleras bakery	Bakery	Bakery	558 E Broadway St	open
The Bay Event Center	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Japanese · American · Sushi	18 Main St	open
The Code Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar		827 Starr Ave	open
The Garden by Poco Piatti	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Italian	1521 Front St	open
The Old Bag of Nails Old Bag of Nails Lansing	Bar · Casual dining		615 Riverside Dr	open
Thirsty Turtle	Bar		531 Oak St	open
Tom's BBQ and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	702 Front St	open
Tony Packo's Tony Packo's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European · European	1902 Front St	open
Vito's Pizza and Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	524 Main St	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	108 E. Main Street	open
Whiskey River Tavern	Bar		129 Euclid Ave	open
Willie J's Bar	Bar		549 Navarre Ave	open
Wingyro's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	560 E Broadway St	open
Zia's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	20 Main St	open
Aya East Ltd	Bar		308 Main St	closed
Kopper's Bar	Bar		549 Navarre Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	47	24	—	—	—	23	SIC1987
1995	40	18	—	—	—	22	SIC1987
1996	45	17	—	—	—	28	SIC1987
1997	53	23	—	—	—	30	SIC1987
1998	52	21	10	8	2	27	NAICS1997
1999	53	20	7	10	2	29	NAICS1997
2000	51	19	6	11	2	29	NAICS1997
2001	44	20	7	11	2	22	NAICS1997
2002	48	20	7	11	2	26	NAICS1997
2003	45	18	6	10	1	25	NAICS2002
2004	43	21	8	10	2	21	NAICS2002
2005	39	18	7	9	2	20	NAICS2002
2006	34	16	6	8	2	17	NAICS2002
2007	33	15	6	7	2	17	NAICS2002
2008	32	16	6	8	2	15	NAICS2007
2009	27	15	8	5	2	11	NAICS2007
2010	31	17	7	8	2	13	NAICS2007
2011	31	18	8	8	2	12	NAICS2007
2012	30	18	8	8	2	11	NAICS2012
2013	28	18	7	9	2	9	NAICS2012
2014	29	17	6	9	2	11	NAICS2012
2015	30	17	6	9	2	12	NAICS2012
2016	26	14	6	8	—	11	NAICS2012
2017	29	16	7	7	—	12	NAICS2017
2018	27	16	7	6	3	10	NAICS2017
2019	25	15	7	7	—	9	NAICS2017
2020	27	16	8	7	—	10	NAICS2017
2021	24	16	7	8	—	7	NAICS2017
2022	27	18	8	9	—	8	NAICS2022
2023	30	21	11	9	—	8	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 43605. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
43604	1.7 mi	53	2023
43608	2.5 mi	16	2023
43620	2.7 mi	2	2016
43610	3.5 mi	2	2016
43619	3.6 mi	22	2023
43609	4.0 mi	16	2023
43611	4.0 mi	15	2023
43460	4.1 mi	24	2023
43434	4.5 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.