BMIE Market 43611
Lucas County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 18,664 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,213 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 7,802 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±497 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 19,207 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 9,003 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $62,042 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,282 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 37.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $858 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±75 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $132,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,578 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 7.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 43611 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 7.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | -11.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | -11.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | -6.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | -31.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 18 (range 15–21) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 46 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 62 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 49 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 18 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 43611. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 46 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 61.7 | 62 | 40% | +24.7 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 48.8 | 49 | 35% | +17.1 |
| Market Momentum Score | 17.5 | 18 | 25% | +4.4 |
Consumer Market Score: 62 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 18,664 | 80 | 40% | +32.1 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 62,042 | 33 | 40% | +13.4 |
| Households (ACS) | 7,802 | 81 | 20% | +16.2 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 49 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | -11.8 | 17 | 35% | +6.1 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 8.0 | 80 | 25% | +20.0 |
| Population (ACS) | 18,664 | 80 | 20% | +16.0 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 62,042 | 33 | 20% | +6.7 |
Market Momentum Score: 18 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | -11.8 | 17 | 50% | +8.7 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | -11.8 | 17 | 30% | +5.2 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | -6.3 | 18 | 20% | +3.6 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (43)
By cuisine
American 7 · Coffee 7 · Pizza 6 · Bakery 4 · Breakfast 4 · Italian 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Asian 2 · Chinese 2 · Hot dogs 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Burgers 1 · Dessert 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Vegetarian 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 21 · Bar 11 · Quick service 6 · Café 5 · Casual dining 5 · Bakery 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Food truck 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahl Kitchen | Food truck | open | ||
| All Shook Up Nutrition-Toledo | Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Juice / smoothies · Coffee | Everywhere | open |
| American Legion | Bar | 3247 E Manhattan Blvd | open | |
| Anchor Inn | Bar | 4950 Suder Ave | open | |
| Bedhead Breakfast | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | American · Coffee | 2040 Ottawa River Rd | open |
| Captains Carryout | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches | 5928 315th St | open |
| China King | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 4747 Suder Ave | open |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Delivery-focused · Quick service | Pizza | 5406 North Summit Street | open |
| Elizabeth's Special Day | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 5053 N Summit St | open |
| Frankly Plant Based Kitchen | Food truck | Vegetarian · Hot dogs | open | |
| Fritzie Freeze Inc | Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea · Bakery | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · Bakery | 5137 N Summit St | open |
| Go Mentel Nutrition | Juice, smoothie, tea | Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls | 5001 N Summit St | open |
| Golden City | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 5051 N Summit St | open |
| Grape Leaf -On The Bay (Coming Soon) Grape Leaf Express - Toledo | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar | 3900 N Summit St | open | |
| Java Mill | Coffee shop | Coffee | 5053 N Summit St | open |
| Jerrys pub | Bar | 820 Ash St | open | |
| Keto Toledo Sweets (baked out of my home to keep cost lower) | Bakery | Bakery | 2050 Keen Ave | open |
| Kings Taste | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Breakfast | 5241 Summit St | open |
| KT's Diner | Casual dining | American · Breakfast | 5157 Suder Ave | open |
| La Chalupa | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 6186 N Summit St | open |
| Lisa's Bar, Grill & Hotel | Casual dining · Bar | American | open | |
| Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 4747 Suder Ave | open |
| Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 2040 Ottawa River Rd, Ste C | open |
| Mayfly Tavern | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 15 Edgewater Park | open | |
| Mayfly Tavern - Toledo, OH | Bar · Casual dining | 4532 N Summit St | open | |
| Mazza's Stone Baked Pizza Company | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 5105 N Summit St | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 5210 N Summit St | open |
| Mike's Carryout | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 408 Cleveland St | open |
| New Horizon Baking Company | Bakery · Café | Bakery · Coffee | 1015 New York Ave | open |
| Pizza Hut Pizza Hut | Quick service | Pizza · Italian | 5235 N Summit St Lucas | open |
| R B | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4747 Suder Ave | open | |
| River Diner | Casual dining | American · Breakfast | 2040 Ottawa River Rd | open |
| Rudy's Hot Dog Rudy's Hot Dog | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Hot dogs · American | 6069 N Summit St | open |
| San Marcos San Marcos Taquería & Grocery | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 719 Galena St | open |
| Scotty's Cafe | Bar · Café | Coffee | 3247 E Manhattan Blvd | open |
| Starbucks | Coffee shop | Coffee | 6433 Suder Ave | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 4870 N Summit St | open |
| Sweets by Caroline | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Breakfast · American · Coffee | 5241 N Summit St | open |
| The Whales Tale | Bar | 5307 N Summit St | open | |
| TOPSIDE | Bar | 3900 N Summit St | open | |
| Vito's Pizza and Subs | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 5145 N Summit St | open |
| Whiskey Nick's | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 282ND St | open | |
| Young's Batter Mix Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 5137 N Summit St | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 30 | 22 | — | — | — | 8 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 30 | 22 | — | — | — | 8 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 29 | 19 | — | — | — | 10 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 29 | 20 | — | — | — | 9 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 29 | 18 | 9 | 9 | — | 11 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 27 | 19 | 9 | 10 | — | 8 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 10 | — | 8 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 26 | 17 | 7 | 10 | — | 8 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 26 | 18 | 9 | 9 | — | 8 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 21 | 16 | 8 | 8 | — | 5 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 20 | 15 | 8 | 7 | — | 5 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 23 | 17 | 10 | 7 | — | 6 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 23 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 6 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 24 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 6 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 21 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 4 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 19 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 4 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 20 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 4 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 4 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 20 | 16 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 4 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 4 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 4 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 24 | 19 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 4 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 23 | 19 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 4 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 23 | 18 | 7 | 10 | — | 4 | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 23 | 17 | 7 | 9 | — | 4 | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 21 | 17 | 6 | 9 | — | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 23 | 18 | 6 | 10 | — | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 12 | — | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 24 | 18 | 5 | 12 | — | 5 | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 21 | 15 | 5 | 9 | — | 4 | NAICS2022 |