BMIE Market 43608

Lucas County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,593 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,141 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,276 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±446 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	16,515 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,374 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$29,275 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,163 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$883 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±74 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$49,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,103 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	3.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 43608
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+60.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+23.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-11.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-11.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 8–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	46 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	69 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 43608. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	45.9	46	40%	+18.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.8	55	35%	+19.2
Market Momentum Score	69.2	69	25%	+17.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,593	75	40%	+30.1
Median household income (ACS)	29,275	2	40%	+0.8
Households (ACS)	5,276	75	20%	+15.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	23.1	66	35%	+23.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.8	65	25%	+16.4
Population (ACS)	13,593	75	20%	+15.0
Median household income (ACS)	29,275	2	20%	+0.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	60	92	50%	+46.2
10-year restaurant growth	23.1	66	30%	+19.7
20-year restaurant growth	-11.1	17	20%	+3.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (40)

By cuisine

American 10 · Sandwiches 5 · Burgers 4 · Mexican 4 · Chicken / wings 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Pizza 2 · African 1 · Greek 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 22 · Bar 12 · Quick service 10 · Casual dining 5 · Other 2

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	611 E Manhattan Blvd	open
Bar Nett’s	Bar		3335 Lagrange St	open
Cardiovascular Research Center	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2409 Cherry St	open
Carnales Taqueria Toledo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3370 Lagrange St	open
Central Station - Former AP	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	750 E Central Ave	open
Chojan Marketing Dba Ping On Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		525 E Manhattan Blvd Ste B	open
City Auto Radiator Co	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1115 Cherry St	open
Cobbler’s Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · African	3131 Cherry St	open
El Camino Real	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	3416 Twining St	open
El Centro de La Mujer	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2916 Lagrange St	open
Elsie's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3117 Lagrange St	open
Every Event Bar and Grill	Bar		3335 Lagrange St	open
Goldstar Carryout	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	2123 Lagrange St	open
Infinity Lounge	Casual dining · Bar		2814 Lagrange St	open
Ken's Lounge	Bar	Cajun, Creole, Southern	1701 Lagrange St	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	523 E. Manhattan Blvd	open
Lion's Den Bar & Grill	Bar		2814 Lagrange St	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3145 Lagrange St	open
Los Amigos Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · American	3236 Stickney Ave	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3423 Lagrange St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1520 Cherry St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	567 Manhattan Blvd	open
Mr Cyro & Family	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Greek	1920 Mulberry St	open
Mr. Hero Mr Hero Mansfield Ohio	Other	Sandwiches · Burgers · American	525 E Manhattan Blvd	open
MSL Brew Pub	Bar		3126 Lagrange St	open
Picrose Place	Bar		3253 Franklin Ave	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	1615 Cherry St	open
Rally's Checkers and Rally's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3033 Cherry St	open
Reflections Banquet Hall	Bar		415 E Central Ave	open
Si's Spot	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood · American	3227 Lagrange St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	3336 Lagrange St	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4400 Chrysler Drive, Jk Stickney Main Cafe	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4400 Chrysler Drive, Body	open
Taco Gringo Taco_Gringo	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1416 Cherry St	open
The Ambience Lounge	Bar		3001 Chestnut St	open
The Quality Bar	Bar		1420 Cherry St	open
The Trunk	Bar		3353 Franklin Ave	open
Toledo Wings Truck	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1430 Cherry St	open
Wendy's	Quick service		3465 Stickney Ave	open
Zelma's Place	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		3325 Stickney Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	27	18	—	—	—	9	SIC1987
1995	25	18	—	—	—	7	SIC1987
1996	29	18	—	—	—	11	SIC1987
1997	30	20	—	—	—	10	SIC1987
1998	22	15	4	11	—	6	NAICS1997
1999	24	17	6	11	—	6	NAICS1997
2000	24	16	8	8	—	6	NAICS1997
2001	26	20	9	11	—	5	NAICS1997
2002	27	20	7	13	—	6	NAICS1997
2003	25	18	5	13	—	6	NAICS2002
2004	22	17	3	13	1	4	NAICS2002
2005	18	15	2	12	1	3	NAICS2002
2006	20	16	2	12	2	2	NAICS2002
2007	16	11	1	9	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	17	12	1	10	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	17	12	—	11	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	18	13	—	12	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	16	12	—	11	1	2	NAICS2007
2012	19	15	1	14	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	17	13	—	12	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	18	14	1	12	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	19	15	2	12	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	19	15	2	12	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	17	13	—	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	10	—	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	10	—	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	11	—	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	12	—	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	20	16	—	15	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	16	—	15	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 43608. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
43620	1.7 mi	2	2016
43610	1.7 mi	2	2016
43604	2.0 mi	53	2023
43605	2.5 mi	21	2023
43611	2.7 mi	15	2023
43612	2.7 mi	60	2023
43613	4.3 mi	45	2023
43606	4.3 mi	69	2023
43609	4.4 mi	16	2023
43434	4.4 mi	—
43607	4.4 mi	22	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.