BMIE Market 43609

Lucas County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	21,404 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,596 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,059 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±582 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	23,687 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	11,031 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$42,313 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,434 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	34.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$873 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±72 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$65,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,149 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	4.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 43609
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+6.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-5.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-38.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-46.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 11–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.23) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	47 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	53 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	46 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	39 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 43609. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.23, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	52.8	53	40%	+21.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45.8	46	35%	+16.0
Market Momentum Score	39.5	39	25%	+9.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	21,404	82	40%	+33.0
Median household income (ACS)	42,313	8	40%	+3.1
Households (ACS)	9,059	84	20%	+16.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-5.9	21	35%	+7.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.5	82	25%	+20.6
Population (ACS)	21,404	82	20%	+16.5
Median household income (ACS)	42,313	8	20%	+1.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	6.7	63	50%	+31.7
10-year restaurant growth	-5.9	21	30%	+6.2
20-year restaurant growth	-38.5	8	20%	+1.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (44)

By cuisine

Mexican 7 · American 5 · Burgers 4 · Pizza 4 · Dessert 3 · Italian 3 · Bakery 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Coffee 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Vegan 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 22 · Quick service 9 · Bar 8 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Food truck 3 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Café 1 · Catering 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
#BoxLyfe Bar	Bar		754 Western Ave	open
Bambino's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2208 Airport Hwy	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	910 Western Avenue	open
Carnivore Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	American · Coffee	2 Hippo Way	open
Crox’s Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		1776 Arlington Ave	open
Dickweeds Bar and Garage	Bar		1020 Wright Ave	open
Dunkin Donuts Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	3531 Airport Highway	open
El Rincon El Rincón	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Spanish / tapas	1218 Broadway St	open
El Tipico Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other) · Healthy / salads / bowls	1444 South Ave	open
Flipperzz Chicken and Seafood Church's Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chicken / wings	1102 South Ave	open
Fourteenth Ward Old Times Association	Bar		2388 Airport Hwy	open
Frozen Frenzy	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	3333 Airport Hwy	open
Gator's Lounge	Bar		1432 Ingomar Ave	open
Gloria’s Soul Food	Catering	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	3647 Marine Rd	open
Island Soul	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	1225 Broadway St	open
Kibanda Watering Hole	Quick service		Toledo Zoo	open
Klosterman Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	660 Sterling St	open
Krave Ice Cream And Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2603 Airport Hwy	open
La Paloma - Toledo Ltd	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1244 Broadway St	open
Latins United	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		706 S St Clair St	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1350 Broadway St	open
Luvable Sweets and Fine Chocolates	Dessert	Dessert	1904 Arlington Ave	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1109 South Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1540 Broadway St	open
Mud City BBQ	Food truck	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern	925 Fries Ave	open
Netty's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	325 S Fearing Blvd	open
Panama J's	Bar		2174 Broadway St	open
Rally's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3509 Airport Hwy	open
Rawhide Trucking	Food truck			open
Recovery Room Recovery Room Toledo	Bar · Casual dining	American	2620 Airport Hwy	open
Rice King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1512 Broadway St	open
Street tacos México lindo y querido	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1010 Broadway St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1528 Broadway St	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	1422 Broadway St	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	3460 Airport Hwy	open
Tacos El Junior	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1107 Broadway St	open
Tacos El Junior	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		1503 Broadway St	open
Taqueria La Michoacana	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	932 Emerald Ave	open
Timberline Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	2700 Broadway St	open
Vibrant Vegan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegan	1225 Broadway St	open
Vito's Pizza and Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	315 S Detroit Ave	open
Wendy's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1109 South Ave	open
Fitzpatrick's Tavern	Bar		1771 Airport Hwy	closed
New Triangle Cafe	Café	Coffee	1202 Broadway St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	44	30	—	—	—	14	SIC1987
1995	40	27	—	—	—	13	SIC1987
1996	46	28	—	—	—	18	SIC1987
1997	50	32	—	—	—	18	SIC1987
1998	43	28	7	18	3	13	NAICS1997
1999	44	28	8	17	3	14	NAICS1997
2000	38	24	8	13	3	13	NAICS1997
2001	40	24	6	16	2	15	NAICS1997
2002	40	26	8	15	3	14	NAICS1997
2003	40	26	8	16	2	14	NAICS2002
2004	33	21	5	13	3	12	NAICS2002
2005	31	18	4	11	3	13	NAICS2002
2006	30	18	2	12	4	12	NAICS2002
2007	32	22	3	15	4	10	NAICS2002
2008	24	18	3	13	2	6	NAICS2007
2009	26	20	2	16	2	6	NAICS2007
2010	26	19	3	15	1	7	NAICS2007
2011	27	20	4	15	1	7	NAICS2007
2012	21	15	1	13	1	6	NAICS2012
2013	23	17	2	14	1	6	NAICS2012
2014	21	15	—	14	1	6	NAICS2012
2015	22	16	1	14	1	6	NAICS2012
2016	22	16	1	13	2	6	NAICS2012
2017	22	17	—	12	4	5	NAICS2017
2018	20	15	—	10	4	5	NAICS2017
2019	19	14	—	10	—	5	NAICS2017
2020	17	13	—	9	—	4	NAICS2017
2021	18	14	—	10	—	4	NAICS2017
2022	19	15	—	11	—	4	NAICS2022
2023	21	16	—	11	3	5	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 43609. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
43460	1.9 mi	24	2023
43607	1.9 mi	22	2023
43604	2.6 mi	53	2023
43620	2.8 mi	2	2016
43614	3.0 mi	52	2023
43606	3.5 mi	69	2023
43610	3.5 mi	2	2016
43605	4.0 mi	21	2023
43608	4.4 mi	16	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.