BMIE Market 48601

Saginaw County, Michigan · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	31,601 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,143 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	13,323 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±602 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	38,406 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	17,166 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$38,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,698 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$856 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±120 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$62,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,417 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	104.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	21 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 48601
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-4.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-19.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-27.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-40.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 16–21) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.6 per year, r² 0.73) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	43 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	18 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 48601. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.73, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Michigan and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 887, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	56.4	56	40%	+22.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45.5	45	35%	+15.9
Market Momentum Score	17.9	18	25%	+4.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	31,601	90	40%	+36.0
Median household income (ACS)	38,900	6	40%	+2.2
Households (ACS)	13,323	91	20%	+18.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-19.2	14	35%	+5.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.7	86	25%	+21.4
Population (ACS)	31,601	90	20%	+18.0
Median household income (ACS)	38,900	6	20%	+1.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 18 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-4.6	23	50%	+11.6
10-year restaurant growth	-19.2	14	30%	+4.3
20-year restaurant growth	-27.6	10	20%	+2.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (53)

By cuisine

American 12 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 7 · Chicken / wings 7 · Mexican 7 · Burgers 5 · Pizza 4 · Seafood 4 · BBQ 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Coffee 2 · Asian 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Indian 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 37 · Quick service 16 · Bar 7 · Dessert 3 · Café 2 · Casual dining 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alejandro's Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	3072 E Holland Rd	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3100 E Holland Rd	open
Backstreet Saloon	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		3721 E Holland Rd	open
Baldwin's Smokehouse BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	3316 E Holland Rd	open
Big Boy Restaurants Saginaw	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3355 E Holland Rd	open
Big John Steak & Onion Big John Steak and Onion Lansing, Michigan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Sandwiches · American	3300 E Holland Rd	open
BIGGBY Coffee Biggby	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	3743 E Holland Rd	open
Blue Diamond	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		1313 Cumberland St	open
Brother Arthur's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern	2522 E Genesee Ave	open
BUBBA'S	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	2623 E Genesee Ave	open
Camyka’s food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean · Latin American (other)	Alger St	open
Church's Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chicken / wings	1843 E Genesee Ave	open
Corner Cones	Dessert · Quick service · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	4991 East Rd	open
Cruz Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other) · American	1200 Martha St	open
Cruz Thru Mexican Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2525 E Genesee Ave	open
Dez Floating Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2120 Williamson Rd	open
Drake's Bar	Bar		5463 Dixie Hwy	open
East Wind	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3747 East St	open
El Gallito Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5934 Dixie Hwy	open
Epicurian Elks Lodge #674	Bar		1704 Veterans Memorial Pkwy	open
Gary Oliver	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	4126 Dixie Hwy	open
Homeboys Kitchen LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Chicken / wings	Cass River Market, 4013 East Rd	open
Hondo's	Bar		2025 Lowell Ave	open
Indian Fields	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	5385 Indiantown Rd	open
Keyes' Pizzeria and Fine Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5796 E Washington Rd	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	3900 Hess Street	open
King's Fish and More	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	2311 E Genesee Ave	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2475 E Remington St	open
La Familia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1912 E Genesee Ave	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3783 Dixie Hwy	open
Little Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6020 Fort Rd	open
Long John Silver's Long John Silver's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	3761 Dixie Hwy	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3200 Holland Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3700 E Genesee Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3670 E Washington Rd	open
Merna's	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Coffee	1915 Fordney St	open
Mr Abe's fish & chicken take out	Quick service	Chicken / wings · British / Irish pub food	1724 E Genesee Ave	open
Munchie's Diner	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Cajun, Creole, Southern		open
N . Washington St Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	1318 N Washington Ave	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	3355 E Holland Rd	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	265 S Outer Dr	open
Real Dip Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	2825 Sheridan Ave	open
Rib Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	1801 E Genesee Ave	open
Saginaw Soup	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1315 S Washington Ave	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	3356 Holland	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	3262 E Holland Rd	open
The New Pompeii	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5110 Dixie Hwy	open
Tias Soul	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	3319 E Holland Rd	open
Tony's Original Restaurants	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2525 E Genesee Ave	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3475 East Washington	open
Whiskey Dix	Bar		5788 Dixie Hwy	open
WHITSON PRIDE	Bar · Food truck		932 N 3rd Ave	open
Paddock Lounge	Bar		2921 Hess Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	51	35	—	—	—	16	SIC1987
1995	50	37	—	—	—	13	SIC1987
1996	54	39	—	—	—	15	SIC1987
1997	48	31	—	—	—	17	SIC1987
1998	49	28	12	14	2	14	NAICS1997
1999	48	26	11	13	2	15	NAICS1997
2000	50	26	11	12	3	15	NAICS1997
2001	51	25	10	12	3	15	NAICS1997
2002	49	28	9	17	2	13	NAICS1997
2003	51	29	8	20	1	13	NAICS2002
2004	53	30	8	19	3	15	NAICS2002
2005	46	29	6	21	1	12	NAICS2002
2006	46	29	6	20	2	12	NAICS2002
2007	34	22	5	14	2	8	NAICS2002
2008	32	20	3	14	2	9	NAICS2007
2009	35	24	5	17	1	8	NAICS2007
2010	36	23	5	17	1	10	NAICS2007
2011	32	22	3	17	1	7	NAICS2007
2012	38	26	3	21	1	7	NAICS2012
2013	35	26	4	21	—	4	NAICS2012
2014	36	26	3	22	—	6	NAICS2012
2015	37	28	2	25	—	5	NAICS2012
2016	35	27	2	24	—	4	NAICS2012
2017	34	26	—	25	—	4	NAICS2017
2018	28	22	—	21	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	31	24	—	22	—	3	NAICS2017
2020	30	23	—	23	—	3	NAICS2017
2021	30	23	4	18	—	3	NAICS2017
2022	28	22	5	16	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	26	21	4	16	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 48601. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
48607	3.4 mi	4	2023
48722	4.0 mi	8	2023
48602	4.6 mi	33	2023
48724	4.7 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.