BMIE Market 85304

Maricopa County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	29,861 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,033 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	10,005 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±599 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	25,883 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,772 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$86,927 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,379 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,514 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±119 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$379,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,360 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	5.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85304
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-27.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-5.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 11–20) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	75 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	40 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85304. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	80.7	81	40%	+32.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74.7	75	35%	+26.1
Market Momentum Score	40.4	40	25%	+10.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	29,861	89	40%	+35.5
Median household income (ACS)	86,927	70	40%	+28.1
Households (ACS)	10,005	86	20%	+17.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	14.3	58	35%	+20.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.4	90	25%	+22.6
Population (ACS)	29,861	89	20%	+17.8
Median household income (ACS)	86,927	70	20%	+14.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	14.3	58	30%	+17.4
20-year restaurant growth	-27.3	10	20%	+2.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (32)

By cuisine

Pizza 6 · American 4 · Asian 3 · Chinese 3 · Coffee 3 · Mexican 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Burgers 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Dessert 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Italian 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Quick service 6 · Bar 5 · Café 3 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Bakery 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
67th and Cactus Dutch Bros. Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	12101 N 67th Ave	open
Burgers & Brews	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers	6670 W Cactus Rd	open
Calabash Lounge	Bar		10802 N 43rd Ave	open
Chung Ming Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	4312 W Cactus Rd	open
Combs Chiropractic	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4323 W Cactus Rd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	13706 N 51st Ave	open
Don Ruben's Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4323 W Cactus Rd	open
El Pollo Loco El Pollo Loco	Quick service	Mexican · Chicken / wings	4302 W Cactus Rd	open
Fire Fusion	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	12251 N 51st Ave	open
Firehouse Subs Firehouse Subs	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	13637 N. 59th Ave. Suite B	open
Girl Scout Cookies	Bakery	Bakery	13637 N 59th Ave	open
Gus's New York Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Pizza	4312 W Cactus Rd, 4312 W Cactus Rd	open
Habbi Hookahs	Bar		10802 N 43rd Ave	open
Hungry Howie's Hungry Howie's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5026 Cactus Rd. #8	open
Jimbo's Sports Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		12224 N 51st Ave	open
La Jefa’s Munchies	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	10620 N 43rd Ave	open
Lennys Burger Lenny's	Quick service	Burgers · American	10635 N 59th Ave	open
Lucky's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · American	6630 W Cactus Rd b108	open
M.E. Hookah	Bar		6670 W Cactus Rd Ste A 109	open
New York Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	5026 W Cactus Rd Ste 10	open
Pho Thien Long Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Chinese · Asian	6630 W Cactus Rd #102	open
Ronnie's Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	4323 W Cactus Rd	open
Shawarma King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	4312 W Cactus Rd Ste 10	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	5040 W Cactus Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5026 W Cactus Rd Suite 2	open
TnA Wieners LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs · Sandwiches	10637 N 45th Dr	open
Tony's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4312 W Cactus Rd Ste 10	open
Tropical Sno	Dessert	Dessert	6630 W Cactus Rd	open
Vineyards, Peoria, Arizona	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Wellness Routine	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		6125 W Bloomfield Rd	open
Wise Guys Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4312 W Cactus Rd	open
Kirks Korner	Bar · Casual dining		10634 N 51st Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	20	17	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	16	15	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	16	13	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	17	15	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	17	13	4	8	1	3	NAICS1997
1999	15	12	5	7	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	20	17	8	7	1	2	NAICS1997
2001	19	14	5	8	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	20	16	8	8	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	27	22	9	13	—	3	NAICS2002
2004	23	19	6	13	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	21	17	5	12	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	19	15	6	9	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	20	17	5	11	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	18	16	7	9	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	17	15	6	9	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	20	17	7	9	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	17	14	5	8	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	17	15	6	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	16	14	6	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	17	15	7	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	22	18	7	11	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	20	15	5	10	—	2	NAICS2012
2017	21	17	5	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	19	16	5	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	23	20	7	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	20	17	6	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	14	5	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	21	15	5	10	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	21	16	6	10	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85304. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
85302	1.8 mi	59	2023
85306	2.0 mi	48	2023
85381	3.1 mi	48	2023
85053	3.7 mi	47	2023
85051	3.7 mi	62	2023
85029	4.0 mi	54	2023
85301	4.2 mi	89	2023
85345	4.2 mi	73	2023
85308	4.6 mi	179	2023
85303	4.8 mi	17	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.