BMIE Market 94005

San Mateo County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,692 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±31 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,912 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±249 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,282 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,934 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$156,169 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±39,706 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,574 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±243 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,232,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±204,609 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	4.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	20 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94005
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	18.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+17.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+122.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+150.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+150.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	25 (range 22–27) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.0 per year, r² 0.90) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	67 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	84 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94005. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.90, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	74.5	74	40%	+29.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	67.4	67	35%	+23.6
Market Momentum Score	83.9	84	25%	+21.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,692	59	40%	+23.7
Median household income (ACS)	156,169	97	40%	+38.7
Households (ACS)	1,912	60	20%	+12.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	122.2	95	35%	+33.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	42.6	12	25%	+3.1
Population (ACS)	4,692	59	20%	+11.9
Median household income (ACS)	156,169	97	20%	+19.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	17.7	75	50%	+37.7
10-year restaurant growth	122.2	95	30%	+28.4
20-year restaurant growth	150	89	20%	+17.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (42)

By cuisine

Asian 4 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 4 · American 3 · Chinese 3 · Mexican 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Japanese 2 · Seafood 2 · Breakfast 1 · Coffee 1 · Indian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Pizza 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1 · Vegan 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 26 · Bakery 5 · Dessert 5 · Food truck 4 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Other 2 · Quick service 2 · Buffet 1 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
7 Mile House Sports Bar & Grill	Bar · Casual dining		2800 Bayshore Blvd	open
Amelia’s Mexipino	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	10 Old County Rd	open
Bake Express	Bakery	Bakery	95 Park Ln	open
Bakers Of Paris	Bakery	Bakery	99 Park Ln	open
Boba Guys Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		245 Visitacion Ave	open
Boulangerie Solignac	Bakery	Bakery	200 Valley Dr Ste 23	open
Brehmer's Handmade Candies	Dessert		126 Alvarado St	open
Brisbane Lunch Truck	Other · Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3501 Bayshore Blvd	open
Chandlery at the Shore	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	1200 Sierra Point Pkwy	open
Chef Reina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegan	33 Visitacion Ave	open
Christy's Donuts & Ice Cream	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	138 Old County Rd	open
CocoTutti Chocolates	Dessert	Dessert	100 N Hill Dr	open
Daisy's Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	142 Old County Rd	open
Farms Fresh Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern	294 Industrial Way	open
Hongry Kong	Food truck			open
House of Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	118 Old County Rd	open
Ichika Sushi House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	118 Old County Rd	open
Julie's Brisbane Liquor and Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	45 Visitacion Ave	open
L & D Catering And Bistro	Casual dining		110 Old County Rd	open
La Praline	Other	Sandwiches	33 Visitacion Ave	open
Lava Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	182 Old County Rd	open
Le Gourmet	Restaurant (service type not stated)		150 N Hill Dr Ste 11	open
Little Green Cyclo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese	2000 Sierra Point Pkwy	open
Lucky House Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	148 Visitacion Ave	open
Madhouse Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	402 Visitacion Ave	open
Mama Mia Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	35 Visitacion Ave	open
Manitas Cafe & Deli Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		44 Visitacion Ave Ste 102	open
Melissa's Taqueria Taqueria Taxco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	160 Visitacion Ave	open
MoBowl	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Asian	249 Visitacion Ave	open
Na Na's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	301 Visitacion Ave	open
Philip Marks Chocolates	Dessert	Dessert	44 Visitacion Ave	open
Round N Round Pot	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Buffet	Chinese · Seafood · Asian	182 Old County Rd	open
Sheng Kee Bakery	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Dessert	201 S Hill Dr	open
Specialty’s Café & Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	880 Sierra Point Pkwy	open
Stentor	Bar		5000 Marina Blvd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	150 Old County Rd	open
Sweet Delight Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		201 S Hill Dr	open
Teriyaki House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	114 Old County Rd	open
The Burrow	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea · Juice / smoothies · Asian	109 Visitacion Ave	open
The Parlour House @Brisbane	Restaurant (service type not stated)		301 Visitacion Ave	open
WhiteCaps Drinks + Eats	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	5000 Sierra Point Pkwy	open
Wu Wei Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		249 Visitacion Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	8	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	9	7	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	13	12	5	7	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	16	14	6	7	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	15	13	6	6	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	15	13	7	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	14	12	6	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	11	10	4	6	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	13	11	4	7	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	14	13	2	9	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	13	11	6	5	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	9	7	3	4	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	11	8	3	4	1	3	NAICS2007
2010	11	8	4	3	1	3	NAICS2007
2011	12	8	3	4	1	3	NAICS2007
2012	11	7	3	3	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	13	9	4	3	1	3	NAICS2012
2014	15	11	4	5	1	3	NAICS2012
2015	14	11	5	4	1	2	NAICS2012
2016	16	13	7	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	17	13	7	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	22	17	9	5	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	23	16	8	5	—	3	NAICS2017
2020	21	15	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	21	16	7	4	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	25	19	9	3	6	—	NAICS2022
2023	26	20	9	4	6	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94005. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94134	2.1 mi	44	2023
94014	2.1 mi	81	2023
94080	2.4 mi	145	2023
94112	2.9 mi	107	2023
94124	3.2 mi	58	2023
94188	3.9 mi	1	2016
94015	4.0 mi	119	2023
94127	4.2 mi	48	2023
94110	4.2 mi	330	2023
94131	4.3 mi	30	2023
94066	4.6 mi	102	2023
94132	4.7 mi	71	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.