BMIE Market 94131

San Francisco County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	28,504 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,676 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	12,522 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±591 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	26,881 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	13,427 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$199,211 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,209 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$3,064 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±178 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,713,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±79,847 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	2.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	30 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94131
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-3.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-6.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+114.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	28 (range 25–32) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.38) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	93 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	31 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94131. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.38, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	92.7	93	40%	+37.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62.0	62	35%	+21.7
Market Momentum Score	31.2	31	25%	+7.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 93 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	28,504	88	40%	+35.1
Median household income (ACS)	199,211	99	40%	+39.6
Households (ACS)	12,522	90	20%	+18.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-6.3	20	35%	+7.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.5	70	25%	+17.6
Population (ACS)	28,504	88	20%	+17.6
Median household income (ACS)	199,211	99	20%	+19.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 31 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-3.2	24	50%	+12.1
10-year restaurant growth	-6.3	20	30%	+6.1
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (52)

By cuisine

Coffee 10 · Italian 6 · Bakery 5 · Chinese 5 · Japanese 5 · American 4 · Asian 4 · Breakfast 4 · Sushi 4 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · Thai 2 · Dessert 1 · French 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Seafood 1 · Southeast Asian (other) 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 37 · Café 9 · Coffee shop 7 · Bakery 5 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Dessert 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Specialty food shop 1 · Quick service 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
After Suppa	Bakery	Bakery		open
Alice's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1599 Sanchez St	open
All Seasons Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Chinese · American	5238 Diamond Heights Blvd	open
Appam Sf Corporation	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1689 Church St	open
Ardiana	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1781 Church St	open
Au Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	5214 Diamond Heights Blvd	open
Banh Mi Viet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese	2906 Diamond St	open
Bello Coffee & Tea	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	2885 Diamond St	open
Cafe XO	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Sandwiches	1799 Church St	open
Creighton's Bakery Cafe	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	5214D Diamond Heights Blvd	open
Cup Cafe	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	6 Monterey Blvd	open
Cuppa glen park	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2810 Diamond St	open
Damansara Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southeast Asian (other)	1781 Church St	open
Deli Shop Starbucks	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop · Coffee shop · Quick service · Café · Bakery	Sandwiches · Coffee · Bakery	5214 Diamond Heights Blvd	open
Delights by Lisa	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1767 Church St	open
Destination Baking Company	Bakery	Bakery	598 Chenery St	open
Eddy & Jeff's Hunan Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1708 Church St	open
Erics Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1500 Church St	open
Gefilte Fishery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	4220 Cesar Chavez St	open
Gialina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2842 Diamond St	open
Glen Park Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Breakfast	2798 Diamond St	open
Henry's Hunan Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1708 Church St	open
Higher Grounds Coffee House	Café	Coffee	691 Chenery St	open
Incanto Restaurant & Wine Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1550 Church St	open
Kama Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	1497 Church St	open
Kompis Brik Klub	Bar		28th Street	open
La Ciccia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	291 30th St	open
La Cigale	Restaurant (service type not stated)		679 Chenery St	open
La Corneta Taqueria La Corneta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	2834 Diamond St	open
La Lucha Coffee Bar	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1598 Sanchez St	open
La Nebbia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1781 Church St	open
Le P'tit Laurent	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French	699 Chenery St	open
Long Island Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1689 Church St	open
Manzoni	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	2788 Diamond St	open
Oki Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	1740 Church St	open
Olympic Club Olympic Club	Bar		2966 Diamond St	open
Osha Thai Café	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Noodles / ramen / pho · Thai · Asian	2922 Diamond St	open
Pebbles Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	2852 Diamond St	open
Pomelo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	1793 Church St	open
Porcellino	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1550 Church St	open
Regent Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	1700 Church St	open
RockIt Swirl	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2810 Diamond St	open
Tataki Canyon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	678 Chenery St	open
Tekka House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	678 Chenery St #3034	open
Toast Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	1748 Church St	open
Twin Peaks Pizza and Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	1681 Church St	open
Tyger's Coffee Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	2798 Diamond St	open
Ucsf 920 Express	Coffee shop	Coffee	505 Parnassus Ave	open
Uma Casa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Spanish / tapas	1550 Church St	open
Waits-Mast Family Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2912 Diamond St	open
Win Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2794 Diamond St	open
Law Office Of Geri Lynn Green	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5214F Diamond Heights Blvd PMB 332	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	17	14	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	23	20	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	21	19	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	24	21	10	4	6	3	NAICS1997
1999	24	22	10	4	7	2	NAICS1997
2000	26	22	12	4	6	4	NAICS1997
2001	28	27	13	8	6	1	NAICS1997
2002	24	22	10	7	5	2	NAICS1997
2003	22	20	12	7	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	24	22	15	6	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	24	23	14	7	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	33	32	17	9	6	1	NAICS2002
2007	31	27	17	5	5	2	NAICS2002
2008	31	28	17	6	5	1	NAICS2007
2009	33	29	16	7	6	2	NAICS2007
2010	32	29	16	6	7	2	NAICS2007
2011	34	31	20	3	8	2	NAICS2007
2012	35	31	19	4	8	3	NAICS2012
2013	34	32	22	3	7	1	NAICS2012
2014	37	34	23	4	7	1	NAICS2012
2015	39	35	23	4	8	1	NAICS2012
2016	40	36	24	4	8	2	NAICS2012
2017	38	34	22	3	9	—	NAICS2017
2018	34	31	20	4	7	—	NAICS2017
2019	34	31	20	4	7	—	NAICS2017
2020	34	31	19	5	7	—	NAICS2017
2021	34	30	16	7	7	—	NAICS2017
2022	40	33	18	7	8	—	NAICS2022
2023	36	30	15	7	8	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94131. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94114	0.9 mi	140	2023
94127	1.1 mi	48	2023
94110	1.5 mi	330	2023
94117	1.7 mi	126	2023
94112	1.8 mi	107	2023
94116	2.4 mi	80	2023
94107	2.5 mi	126	2023
94103	2.5 mi	222	2023
94134	2.5 mi	44	2023
94122	2.5 mi	199	2023
94118	2.6 mi	154	2023
94102	2.6 mi	213	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.