BMIE Market 94521
Contra Costa County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 41,909 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,800 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 15,938 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±660 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 41,249 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 16,269 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $125,899 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,693 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 42.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $2,404 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±120 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $853,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,179 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 9.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 56 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94521 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 9.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +5.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +30.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | -5.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 63 (range 59–67) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.2 per year, r² 0.85) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 81 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 94 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 78 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 64 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94521. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.85, confidence High.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 81 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 93.6 | 94 | 40% | +37.4 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 77.8 | 78 | 35% | +27.2 |
| Market Momentum Score | 63.6 | 64 | 25% | +15.9 |
Consumer Market Score: 94 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 41,909 | 95 | 40% | +37.9 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 125,899 | 92 | 40% | +36.8 |
| Households (ACS) | 15,938 | 94 | 20% | +18.9 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 78 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 33.3 | 73 | 35% | +25.7 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 13.4 | 59 | 25% | +14.7 |
| Population (ACS) | 41,909 | 95 | 20% | +18.9 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 125,899 | 92 | 20% | +18.4 |
Market Momentum Score: 64 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 5.7 | 62 | 50% | +31.1 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 33.3 | 73 | 30% | +22.0 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 30.2 | 52 | 20% | +10.5 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (102)
By cuisine
American 15 · Mexican 13 · Coffee 10 · Pizza 10 · Asian 9 · Sandwiches 8 · Burgers 7 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 7 · Dessert 6 · Italian 5 · Latin American (other) 5 · Bakery 4 · Chicken / wings 4 · Chinese 4 · Japanese 4 · Juice / smoothies 4 · Thai 4 · Breakfast 3 · Sushi 3 · Tea / bubble tea 3 · BBQ 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Mediterranean 2 · European 1 · Greek 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Indian 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Peruvian 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 68 · Quick service 22 · Dessert 9 · Café 8 · Coffee shop 8 · Specialty food shop 6 · Juice, smoothie, tea 6 · Bakery 5 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 4 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A&w Restaurant KFC | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 4660 Clayton Rd | open |
| Aga Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean | 4691 Clayton Rd | open |
| Angry Chickz - Concord | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 5442 Ygnacio Valley Rd, 40 & 50 | open |
| Arbat | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop | Sandwiches | 4375 Clayton Rd | open |
| BAMBU | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Coffee · Juice / smoothies | 5100 Clayton Rd Ste A13 | open |
| Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins | Dessert · Bakery | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Bakery | open | |
| Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 5100 Clayton Rd Ste 28 Vineyard Shopping Ctr Ste 28 | open |
| Bella Ristorante | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 5458 Ygnacio Valley Rd | open |
| Big Bang Boba & Chicken-Concord | Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Tea / bubble tea | 4383 Clayton Rd | open |
| Bronze Buddha Thai Fusion | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai · Asian | 5434 Ygnacio Valley Rd | open |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service | Burgers · American | 4320 Clayton Rd | open |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service | Burgers · American | 5400 Ygnacio Valley Rd | open |
| ButtercuP ButtercuP | Casual dining · Bar | American | 4301 Clayton Rd | open |
| Caffino | Coffee shop | Coffee | 4411 Treat Blvd | open |
| Cal Wok | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 4635 Clayton Rd | open |
| Chilly Willy's Smokehouse BBQ | Catering · Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 4020 Hope Ave | open |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 5434 Ygnacio Valley Rd Ste 220 | open |
| Clayton Dutch Bros. Coffee | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 4672 Clayton Rd. | open |
| Clayton Nick The Greek | Quick service | 5458 Ygnacio Valley Rd, 60 | open | |
| Clayton Bar and Grill | Casual dining · Bar | American | 4635 Clayton Rd | open |
| Coco's Bakery Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 4391 Treat Blvd | open |
| Cold Stone Creamery Cold Stone Creamery | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 5442 Ygnacio Valley Rd, Ste 30 | open |
| Concord - Clayton/Ygnacio Valley Round Table Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 5434 Ygnacio Valley | open |
| Concord High School Athletic Boosters | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4200 Concord Blvd | open | |
| D & T Market Inc. Dba Clayton Valley Grocery Outlet | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 5410 Ygnacio Valley Rd | open | |
| Dairy Queen Dairy Queen | Quick service · Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · American | 4463 Clayton Rd 4463 Clayton Rd | open |
| Dickeys Barbecue Pit | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 5434 Ygnacio Valley Rd | open |
| Dinosaur Brewing Company | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 1578 American Beauty Dr | open | |
| Dominos Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 5400 Ygnacio Valley Rd | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 4383 Clayton Rd | open |
| Dutch Bros Coffee Dutch Bros Coffee Jackson County | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 4672 Clayton Rd | open |
| El Molino | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 4049 Glendale Ave Ste 40 | open |
| El Pollo Loco El Pollo Loco | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 4401 Clayton Rd | open |
| El Tapatio Concord, CA | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 4633 Clayton Rd | open |
| Elm Acres Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 5356 Clayton Rd Ste 210 | open | |
| Fiore Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Mediterranean · European | 5100 Clayton Rd | open |
| Five Guys Five Guys | Quick service | Burgers · American | 5442 Ygnacio Valley Rd | open |
| Guadalajara Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · American | 5446 Ygnacio Valley Rd | open |
| Huckleberry's Breakfast and Lunch Huckleberry's Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Breakfast · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American | 4391 Treat Blvd | open |
| Hunan Restaurant Hunan | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 4804 Clayton Rd | open |
| IHOP IHOP | Casual dining | Breakfast · American | 4619 Clayton Rd | open |
| Incas Grill | Casual dining · Bar | Peruvian · Latin American (other) | 4669 Clayton Rd | open |
| International Market and Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Middle Eastern | 4425 Treat Blvd | open |
| Jack in the Box | Quick service | 4740 Clayton Rd | open | |
| Jamba Jamba | Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls | 5442 Ygnacio Valley Rd | open |
| Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 5438 Ygnacio Valley Rd | open |
| Kamrai Sushi & Thai Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai | 4743 Clayton Rd | open |
| Koon Thai Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai · Asian | 4743 Clayton Rd | open |
| Lisas Hot Dogs and Burritos | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Hot dogs · Mexican · American | 5100 Clayton Rd | open |
| Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 4475 Treat Blvd | open |
| Los Portales Taqueria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 4305 Clayton Rd | open |
| Los Portales Taqueria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 4305 Clayton Rd | open |
| Maharaja’s Taj Mahal | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Indian | 4436 Clayton Rd | open |
| Mai Thai 2 | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai · Asian | 4710 Clayton Rd | open |
| Mama Sushi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi | 4436 Clayton Rd | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 4550 Clayton Rd | open |
| Milk Tea Lab | Juice, smoothie, tea | Tea / bubble tea | 5100 Clayton Rd Ste A13 | open |
| Minamoto Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese | 4305 Clayton Rd | open |
| Mister Pickles Mr. Pickle's Sandwich Shops | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Dessert | Sandwiches · Ice cream / frozen desserts · American | 4436 Clayton Rd | open |
| Mona’s Bar & Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 4635 Clayton Rd | open |
| Mountain Mike's Pizza Mountain Mike's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · American | 5358 Clayton Rd | open |
| Nation's Giant Hamburgers Nation's Giant Hamburgers | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers · Breakfast · American | 4600 Clayton Rd | open |
| New Lim's Garden | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian | 4340 Clayton Rd | open |
| Nick The Greek | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Greek · Sandwiches | 5458 Ygnacio Valley Rd, 60 | open |
| Otaku Japanese Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4436 Clayton Rd | open | |
| Out The Dough | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop | Dessert | 4666 Clayton Rd | open |
| Pancakes 655 Incorporated | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4619 Clayton Rd | open | |
| Panda Express Panda Express México | Quick service | Chinese · Asian | 5458 Ygnacio Valley Rd | open |
| Panera Bread Panera Bread | Bakery · Café | Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee | 5442 Ygnacio Valley Rd | open |
| Papa Johns Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 4669 Clayton Rd Ste C | open |
| Pardon My Cheesesteak | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4619 Clayton Rd | open | |
| Pasta Primavera Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 4425 Treat Blvd Ste F | open |
| Peet's Coffee Peet's Coffee | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 5458 Ygnacio Valley Rd | open |
| Pizza Hut | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 4691 Clayton Rd Ste D | open |
| Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen | Quick service | Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 5101 Clayton Rd | open |
| Restaurante Bahia de Jiquilisco | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) | 4633 Clayton Rd | open |
| Round Table Pizza Round Table Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 5434 Ygnacio Valley Rd | open |
| Round Table Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 5100 Clayton Rd | open |
| Seniore’s Pizza Seniore's Pizza LTD | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 4436 Clayton Rd e | open |
| Sourdough & Co. Sourdough & Co. Modesto H Street | Specialty food shop · Quick service · Fast casual | Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls | 4305 Clayton Rd | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 4309 Clayton Rd | open |
| Strictly To Go Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 4702 Clayton Rd | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 4701 Clayton Rd | open |
| Sweet Adeline, Inc. Dba Wingstop Restaur | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 5442 Ygnacio Valley Rd Ste 50 | open | |
| T4 Clayton | Juice, smoothie, tea · Quick service | Tea / bubble tea · Juice / smoothies | 5434 Ygnacio Valley Rd #40 | open |
| Tachi Sushi Bar | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 5458 Ygnacio Valley Rd | open |
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | Mexican | 4674 Clayton Rd | open |
| Taqueria Las Palmas | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 4787 Clayton Rd | open |
| Taqueria Los Arcos | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 4530 Clayton Rd | open |
| Tasty Szechuan | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 4475 Treat Blvd | open |
| The Kreamery & Bake Shoppe | Dessert · Bakery | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Bakery | 5100 Clayton Rd A18 | open |
| The Quenched Trailer | Coffee shop · Food truck · Café | Coffee | 1555 Kirker Pass Rd | open |
| Togo's Sandwiches TOGO'S Sandwiches | Quick service · Specialty food shop | Sandwiches | 4475 Treat Blvd A | open |
| Treats Cafe | Café | Coffee | 4666 Clayton Rd | open |
| Treats Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4611 Clayton Rd | open | |
| Vero's Taqueria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 4673 Clayton Rd Ste G | open |
| Vero's Taqueria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 4673 Clayton Rd Ste G | open |
| Wayback Burgers Wayback Burgers | Quick service | Burgers · American | 4375 Clayton Rd Ste A | open |
| Wingstop | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 5442 Ygnacio Valley Rd Ste 40 & 50 | open |
| ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 4309 Clayton Rd | open |
| شیریخ و ژاله Kabul Icy Treats Cafe | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 4383 Clayton Rd | open |
| Minamoto Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese | 4305 Clayton Rd | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 61 | 59 | — | — | — | 2 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 57 | 55 | — | — | — | 2 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 54 | 52 | — | — | — | 2 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 40 | 38 | — | — | — | 2 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 44 | 40 | 19 | 16 | 5 | 3 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 47 | 42 | 20 | 16 | 6 | 3 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 53 | 47 | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 50 | 44 | 19 | 20 | 5 | 3 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 40 | 35 | 15 | 16 | 4 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 49 | 43 | 17 | 20 | 6 | 3 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 44 | 40 | 15 | 20 | 5 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 51 | 48 | 19 | 22 | 7 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 49 | 47 | 20 | 21 | 6 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 42 | 40 | 16 | 17 | 7 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 46 | 44 | 18 | 16 | 10 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 43 | 41 | 18 | 14 | 8 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 41 | 39 | 18 | 12 | 8 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 43 | 41 | 18 | 15 | 7 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 42 | 40 | 17 | 17 | 5 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 44 | 42 | 19 | 17 | 6 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 50 | 49 | 23 | 21 | 5 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 51 | 49 | 23 | 21 | 5 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 51 | 48 | 24 | 20 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 52 | 50 | 19 | 24 | 7 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 55 | 53 | 19 | 25 | 9 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 54 | 52 | 17 | 27 | 8 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 59 | 56 | 16 | 31 | 9 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 59 | 56 | 16 | 33 | 7 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 59 | 56 | 17 | 32 | 7 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 61 | 56 | 19 | 30 | 7 | — | NAICS2022 |