BMIE Market 94518
Contra Costa County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 27,345 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,673 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 10,124 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±592 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 26,778 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 10,638 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $112,094 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,193 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 41.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $2,348 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±82 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $859,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29,232 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 5.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 18 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94518 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 6.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | -5.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +20.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +28.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 24 (range 19–29) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.31) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 72 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 87 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 78 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 40 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94518. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.31, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 72 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 86.9 | 87 | 40% | +34.8 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 78.5 | 78 | 35% | +27.5 |
| Market Momentum Score | 40.4 | 40 | 25% | +10.1 |
Consumer Market Score: 87 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 27,345 | 87 | 40% | +34.8 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 112,094 | 87 | 40% | +35.0 |
| Households (ACS) | 10,124 | 86 | 20% | +17.2 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 78 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 20 | 63 | 35% | +22.1 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 6.6 | 86 | 25% | +21.5 |
| Population (ACS) | 27,345 | 87 | 20% | +17.4 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 112,094 | 87 | 20% | +17.5 |
Market Momentum Score: 40 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | -5.3 | 22 | 50% | +11.2 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 20 | 63 | 30% | +18.9 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 28.6 | 51 | 20% | +10.2 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (38)
By cuisine
Mexican 4 · American 3 · Asian 3 · Coffee 3 · Japanese 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Filipino 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Middle Eastern 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Sushi 2 · Brazilian 1 · Burgers 1 · Halal / kosher 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Food truck 5 · Quick service 5 · Bar 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Casual dining 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54 Mint Ristorante | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 785 Oak Grove Rd | open | |
| ADOruBOwl | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Filipino · Asian | 1044 Shary Cir | open |
| Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 785 Oak Grove Rd | open |
| Bjs Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | open | ||
| Black Oak Hot Dogs | Food truck | Hot dogs | Lowe's Concord | open |
| Blimpie | Quick service · Other | Sandwiches | 790 Oak Grove Rd Ste C2 | open |
| Breaktime Tea - Concord | Juice, smoothie, tea | Tea / bubble tea · Juice / smoothies | 790 Oak Grove Rd | open |
| Cabalen sweets&savory | Food truck | Filipino · Middle Eastern | 1419 San Carlos Ave | open |
| Captain's Chest Lounge | Bar | 785 Oak Grove Rd | open | |
| Carondelet Café | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Coffee · American | 1133 Winton Dr | open |
| Century Pyramid Window Cleaning | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1069 Shary Cir Ste C | open | |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 785 Oak Grove Rd Ste E1 | open |
| Concord - Treat Blvd Round Table Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 2960 Treat Blvd | open |
| Diablo Valley Bowl Sports Bar | Bar | Japanese | open | |
| Evana's Italian Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 785 Oak Grove Rd | open |
| Flemmings Steak House, Walnut Creek | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse · Brazilian | open | |
| Golden Gate Gyro | Food truck | Mediterranean · Halal / kosher | 1044 Shary Cir | open |
| Guacamole Authentic Mexican Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 790 Oak Grove Rd, Ste D | open |
| Jimmy John's Jimmy John's | Quick service · Specialty food shop | Sandwiches | 785 Oak Grove Rd Ste. G1 | open |
| Mazeh Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Middle Eastern | 936 Detroit Ave Ste D | open |
| Mona's Burgers & Shakes | Quick service | Burgers · American | 785 Oak Grove Rd E4 | open |
| Nation's Giant Hamburgers | Quick service | 785 Oak Grove Rd | open | |
| Ofie's Kitchen | Food truck · Juice, smoothie, tea | American · Juice / smoothies | 1044 Shary Cir | open |
| Ozora Sushi Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 785 Oak Grove Rd | open |
| Paperbox Pastry | Bakery | Bakery | 1044 Shary Cir | open |
| Peet's Coffee Peet's Coffee | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 785 Oak Grove Rd | open |
| Rachel Dunn Chocolates | Dessert | Dessert | 1021 Detroit Ave | open |
| Ranchero Taqueria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 1099 Reganti Dr # B | open |
| Round Table Pizza Round Table Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Pizza | 2960 Treat Blvd | open |
| Salsa Verde Mexican Cuisine | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 970 Detroit Ave | open |
| Sandwico Del Mundo | Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea | Juice / smoothies | 1044 Shary Cir | open |
| Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 790 Oak Grove Rd (Oak Grove & Treat -, Concord) | open |
| Terrapins Snack Bar | Bar | 3501 Cowell Rd | open | |
| Thai Table Oak Grove | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai · Asian | 790 Oak Grove Rd | open |
| The Taki Bar | Bar | Japanese · Sushi | 1481 Davis Ave | open |
| Your Granola Garden | Bakery | Bakery | 1044 Shary Cir | open |
| Hot Basil Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 790 Oak Grove Rd | closed | |
| Scrumpy's Sandwich Shoppe | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee · Korean · Asian | 1035 Detroit Ave Ste 300 | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 13 | 12 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 13 | 12 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 17 | 16 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 18 | 17 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 22 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 19 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 18 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 16 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 17 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 19 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 20 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 22 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 20 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 20 | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 17 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 17 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 19 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 18 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 18 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 21 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 21 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 21 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 26 | 24 | 7 | 13 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 23 | 20 | 5 | 11 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 23 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 21 | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 22 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | — | NAICS2022 |