BMIE Market 94530

Contra Costa County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	26,401 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±325 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	11,021 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±321 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	23,877 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	10,914 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$128,529 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,482 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,545 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±118 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,114,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,468 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	4.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	66 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94530
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	20.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+10.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+24.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+57.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+46.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	70 (range 64–75) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.0 per year, r² 0.62) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	89 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	68 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94530. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.62, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	89.0	89	40%	+35.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65.7	66	35%	+23.0
Market Momentum Score	67.7	68	25%	+16.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 89 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	26,401	86	40%	+34.5
Median household income (ACS)	128,529	93	40%	+37.1
Households (ACS)	11,021	87	20%	+17.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	24.5	67	35%	+23.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	25	27	25%	+6.7
Population (ACS)	26,401	86	20%	+17.3
Median household income (ACS)	128,529	93	20%	+18.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	10	68	50%	+33.8
10-year restaurant growth	24.5	67	30%	+20.0
20-year restaurant growth	57.1	70	20%	+13.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (106)

By cuisine

Asian 21 · American 14 · Chinese 11 · Coffee 11 · Mexican 9 · Japanese 8 · Bakery 7 · Pizza 7 · Sushi 7 · Latin American (other) 6 · Sandwiches 6 · Burgers 5 · Chicken / wings 5 · Dessert 5 · Italian 5 · Breakfast 4 · BBQ 3 · Tea / bubble tea 3 · Thai 3 · Vietnamese 3 · Hawaiian / Pacific 2 · Noodles / ramen / pho 2 · Peruvian 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · African 1 · Brazilian 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Korean 1 · Seafood 1 · Spanish / tapas 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 68 · Quick service 19 · Bar 13 · Café 10 · Bakery 7 · Coffee shop 7 · Casual dining 5 · Dessert 5 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Food truck 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
514 Lounge	Bar		11236 San Pablo Ave	open
All Star Donuts	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	3070 El Cerrito Plaza	open
Antojitos Guatemaltecos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	11252 San Pablo Ave	open
Armadillo Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	10180 San Pablo Ave	open
Asian Harbor	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Spanish / tapas · Asian	10166-68 San Pablo Ave	open
Banana Leaf	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	11880 San Pablo Ave	open
Banh Mi Ba Le	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Vietnamese · Sandwiches	10174 San Pablo Ave	open
Banter Wine	Bar		10368 San Pablo Ave	open
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	10598 San Pablo Ave	open
Best Burritos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	10390 San Pablo Ave	open
Brasil Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Brazilian · Latin American (other)	11866 San Pablo Ave	open
Brasil Com S	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery	10478 San Pablo Ave	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	6021 Central Ave	open
California Fish Grill California Fish Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	5040 El Cerrito Plaza Ste E004	open
Cerrito Speakeasy	Bar		10070 San Pablo Ave	open
Chef's Chinese Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	233 El Cerrito Plaza	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	9901 San Pablo Ave	open
Christopher Nizer, D.c Dba Ball Chiropractic Center	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10468 San Pablo Ave	open
Church's Texas Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	11575 San Pablo Ave	open
Cigar Box Kitchen	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		10064 San Pablo Ave	open
Crown Bar	Bar			open
Dave's Hot Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	5010 El Cerrito Plz	open
Denny's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other	Sandwiches · Mexican	11344 San Pablo Ave	open
Dolly's	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	10172 San Pablo Ave	open
Donut Time	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	10740 San Pablo Ave	open
El Cerrito Natural Grocery - Prepared Food Annex	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	10387 San Pablo Ave	open
El Mono	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Peruvian	10264 San Pablo Ave	open
El Mono \| Fresh Flavors of Peru	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10264 San Pablo Ave	open
El Mono \| Fresh Flavors of Peru	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Peruvian · Latin American (other)	11720 San Pablo Ave	open
Elevation 66 Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar	American	10082 San Pablo Ave	open
Encorecake	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	10178 San Pablo Ave	open
Fat Daddy's BBQ	Catering · Food truck	BBQ	127 Santa Fe Ave	open
Fatapple's Restaurant and Bakery	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Bakery · American	7525 Fairmount Ave	open
Gangnam Tofu	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean · Asian	11740 San Pablo Ave Ste C	open
Goody Donuts and Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	10963 San Pablo Ave	open
Guru Curry House (El Cerrito)	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Asian	10350 San Pablo Ave	open
H&J's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	10841 San Pablo Ave	open
Happy Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	11265 San Pablo Ave	open
IHOP IHOP	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	11511 San Pablo Ave	open
Ike's Sandwiches - El Cerrito, CA Ike's Lair	Restaurant (service type not stated)		350 El Cerrito Plz	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Burgers · Breakfast	10409 San Pablo Ave	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		5920 Cutting Blvd	open
Jamba Jamba	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	5030 El Cerrito Plaza Ste. E-1	open
JAPAN TEA Studio 108	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	2097 Key Blvd	open
Katana-Ya Ramen Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	10544 San Pablo Ave	open
KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	10175 San Pablo Ave #119	open
Kyoto Ramen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	3050 El Cerrito Plaza	open
L&L El Cerrito L&L Hawaiian BBQ - Vancouver	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	BBQ · Hawaiian / Pacific · Chinese	11775 San Pablo Ave	open
La Estrella Food Truck	Food truck	Mexican	10458 San Pablo Ave	open
Lama Bar	Bar		9937 San Pablo Ave	open
Las Cabañas Food Truck El Cerrito	Food truck	Mexican	11940 San Pablo Ave	open
Legendary Family Healthcare Pllc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10350 San Pablo Ave	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	11299 San Pablo Ave	open
Little Hill Lounge	Bar		10753 San Pablo Ave	open
Little Hong Kong	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	10443 San Pablo Ave	open
Los Moles Beer Garden Los Moles San Rafael	Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	6120 Potrero Ave	open
M2 Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	174 El Cerrito Plaza	open
Masa Tamales & Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	10409 San Pablo Ave	open
McBears Social Club	Bar		10458 San Pablo Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	11821 San Pablo Ave	open
Mel-O-Dee Cocktails	Bar		240 El Cerrito Plaza	open
Miles Pizza Slice	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	10180 San Pablo Ave	open
MOD Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5040 El Cerrito Plz Ste E004	open
Mountain Mike's Pizza Mountain Mike's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	10750 San Pablo Ave	open
Mr. Pickle's Sandwich Shop	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	10810 San Pablo Ave	open
Nation's Giant Hamburgers Nation's Giant Hamburgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Breakfast · American	6060 Central Ave	open
New Dumpling	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	10064 San Pablo Ave	open
Nhà Hàng Việt Nam	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian	10086 San Pablo Ave	open
Noodles Fresh	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Noodles / ramen / pho · Chinese · Asian	10042 San Pablo Ave	open
Nori Roll	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	10178 San Pablo Ave	open
Panda Express Panda Express México	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	5020 El Cerrito Plaza #e-2	open
Papi's Pizza Roma Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	10616 San Pablo Ave	open
Pasta Pomodoro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	5040 El Cerrito Plz	open
Peet's Coffee Peet's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	9895 San Pablo Ave	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	6341 Shattuck Ave	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	10125 San Pablo Ave	open
Raphael's Shutter Cafe	Café	Coffee	10064 San Pablo Ave	open
Red Onion	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	11900 San Pablo Ave	open
Ricuras Colombianas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Mexican	833 Lexington Ave	open
Romano's Macaroni Grill Romano's Macaroni Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Italian	8000 El Cerrito Plz	open
Sa Wooei Thai Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	10621 San Pablo Ave	open
See's Candies See's Candies	Dessert	Dessert	160 El Cerrito Plaza	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	3090 El Cerrito Plaza	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	11861 San Pablo Ave	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Café	Japanese · Coffee · Sushi · Asian	11450 San Pablo Ave	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	10398 San Pablo Ave	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	11430 San Pablo Ave. Suite 700	open
Sushi Matsu	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	10561 San Pablo Ave	open
Sushi Sho	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	10749 San Pablo Ave	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service		11575 San Pablo Avenue	open
Tala Coffee & Tea	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	10734 San Pablo Ave	open
Taste of Ethiopia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	African	11740 San Pablo Ave	open
Tasty Sichuan	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Chinese · American	10675 San Pablo Ave	open
The Junket European Café And Delicatessen	Café	Coffee	235 El Cerrito Plz	open
Tigon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	10086 San Pablo Ave	open
Uncle Wong's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	11760 San Pablo Ave C	open
Vietnam Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian	10386 San Pablo Ave	open
Waikiki Hawaiian BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Hawaiian / Pacific	9935 San Pablo Ave	open
Well Grounded Tea & Coffee Bar	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	6925 Stockton Ave	open
Wienerschnitzel Wienerschnitzel	Quick service	Hot dogs · American	11101 San Pablo Ave	open
Wingstop Wingstop	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	340 El Cerrito Plz	open
Yammy Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	195 El Cerrito Plaza	open
Yoshio Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian · Sushi	10889 San Pablo Ave	open
Yuet Foo Seafood Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	10350 San Pablo Ave	open
Yunnan Style Rice Noodle	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	10675 San Pablo Ave	open
Sohrabi Enterprises Ii Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6021 Central Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	51	45	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1995	45	40	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1996	49	45	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1997	47	43	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1998	44	39	20	16	3	4	NAICS1997
1999	43	39	20	15	4	3	NAICS1997
2000	43	40	19	15	6	2	NAICS1997
2001	43	38	19	13	6	4	NAICS1997
2002	50	43	24	14	4	5	NAICS1997
2003	49	42	22	16	4	5	NAICS2002
2004	59	52	24	23	5	5	NAICS2002
2005	62	56	31	19	6	3	NAICS2002
2006	59	51	28	16	7	5	NAICS2002
2007	58	53	25	19	9	3	NAICS2002
2008	58	53	24	18	11	3	NAICS2007
2009	55	51	23	18	10	1	NAICS2007
2010	54	48	21	18	9	3	NAICS2007
2011	56	51	23	19	9	3	NAICS2007
2012	50	46	20	18	8	2	NAICS2012
2013	57	53	26	19	8	2	NAICS2012
2014	59	54	25	21	8	2	NAICS2012
2015	64	60	29	21	9	3	NAICS2012
2016	65	59	31	20	8	5	NAICS2012
2017	61	55	27	19	9	4	NAICS2017
2018	65	60	28	23	9	4	NAICS2017
2019	72	65	32	23	10	5	NAICS2017
2020	65	60	28	23	9	3	NAICS2017
2021	70	61	28	25	8	4	NAICS2017
2022	70	61	25	27	9	4	NAICS2022
2023	75	66	25	31	10	4	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94530. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94805	1.9 mi	24	2023
94707	1.9 mi	35	2023
94804	2.1 mi	48	2023
94706	2.2 mi	68	2023
94708	2.4 mi	1	2016
94803	2.7 mi	28	2023
94709	3.5 mi	53	2023
94702	3.8 mi	41	2023
94710	3.9 mi	44	2023
94703	4.2 mi	15	2023
94720	4.3 mi	3	2023
94704	4.3 mi	183	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.