BMIE Market 96821

Honolulu County, Hawaii · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	20,053 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,449 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,766 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±366 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	19,856 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,295 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$174,938 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,421 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	50.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$3,061 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±242 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,563,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±64,069 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	11.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 96821
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-10.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+6.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-10.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+41.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	17 (range 13–21) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	88 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	28 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 96821. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Hawaii and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 78, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	87.6	88	40%	+35.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73.3	73	35%	+25.6
Market Momentum Score	27.7	28	25%	+6.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 88 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	20,053	81	40%	+32.6
Median household income (ACS)	174,938	98	40%	+39.2
Households (ACS)	6,766	79	20%	+15.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	6.3	51	35%	+17.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.5	78	25%	+19.6
Population (ACS)	20,053	81	20%	+16.3
Median household income (ACS)	174,938	98	20%	+19.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 28 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-10.5	18	50%	+9.1
10-year restaurant growth	6.3	51	30%	+15.2
20-year restaurant growth	-10.5	17	20%	+3.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (33)

By cuisine

Coffee 7 · Asian 6 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 3 · BBQ 3 · Chinese 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Sandwiches 2 · American 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Korean 1 · Pizza 1 · Vegan 1 · Vegetarian 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 21 · Quick service 7 · Café 5 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aina Haina Chop Suey	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	820 W Hind Dr Ste 115	open
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	820 W Hind Dr	open
BBQ Town Drive Inn	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	820 W Hind Dr #117	open
bEASTside Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Hawaiian / Pacific	5724 Kalanianaʻole Hwy	open
Brazen Hazen Kona Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee		open
Cafe Asia	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5724 Kalanianaʻole Hwy	open
Cake Couture	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	820 W Hind Dr	open
Chuck E Cheese’s Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)		820 W Hind Dr	open
Crumbl - Aina Haina Crumbl Cookies	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery · Asian	820 W Hind Dr Ste 120	open
Great Harvest Bread Co	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Bakery · Coffee	4400 Kalanianaole Hwy	open
Gyotaku Japanese Restaurant Gyotaku Japanese Restaurants	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	5728 Kalanianaole Hwy	open
Hangang Hawaii Kai / Niu Valley Korean Bbq	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean · BBQ · Asian	5730 Kalanianaʻole Hwy	open
Hawaiisfinestshrimp	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	6126 Kalanianaole Hwy	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		5722 Kalanianaole Hwy	open
Jack's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Breakfast · Coffee	820 W Hind Dr	open
KFC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	5720 Kalanianaole Hwy	open
Kokonuts Shave Ice & Snacks	Dessert · Quick service	Dessert	Aina Haina Shopping Center, 850 W Hind Dr	open
La Tour Cafe	Café	Coffee	820 W Hind Dr Ste 1291	open
Leahi Health Aina Haina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	820 W Hind Dr	open
Lung Fung Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	5724 Kalanianaole Hwy	open
MA FARM	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other			open
Mama Pho	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian	Shopping Center, 820 W Hind Dr #111	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	820 W Hind Dr	open
Paiko	Café	Coffee		open
Pho One Vietnamese Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	4947 Poola St	open
Pieology Pizzeria Aina Haina, Honolulu, HI	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Vegan	820 W Hind Dr	open
R Field Wine Co	Restaurant (service type not stated)		820 W Hind Dr	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	820 W Hind Dr	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	820-850 W Hind Dr	open
Surf Camp Niu Valley	Coffee shop	Coffee	549 Halemaumau St #D4	open
Umeke Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	4400 Kalanianaole Hwy	open
Yummy Korean BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	321 Wailupe Cir	open
Uncle Clay's House Of Pure Aloha	Dessert	Dessert	820 W Hind Dr Ste 116	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	15	15	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	16	16	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	20	20	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	19	19	10	9	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	19	19	9	7	3	—	NAICS1997
2000	14	14	6	5	3	—	NAICS1997
2001	18	17	8	7	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	19	19	8	9	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	19	19	8	10	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	20	20	8	10	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	17	17	8	7	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	18	17	8	7	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	15	14	5	7	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	14	14	6	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	14	13	4	8	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	16	15	4	9	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	13	5	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	17	16	6	7	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	18	16	7	6	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	19	17	8	6	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	18	16	7	6	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	20	18	7	7	4	—	NAICS2012
2017	17	17	7	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	20	19	7	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	16	3	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	18	16	3	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	13	3	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	19	18	5	9	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	17	6	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 96821. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
96816	3.0 mi	131	2023
96795	3.0 mi	9	2023
96822	3.9 mi	49	2023
96825	3.9 mi	56	2023
96848	4.2 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.