BMIE Market 08502

Somerset County, New Jersey · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,849 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±644 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,983 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±269 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,317 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,744 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$227,242 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,310 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,298 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±476 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$816,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±36,818 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	13.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 08502
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-66.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 5–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.18) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	79 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	42 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 08502. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.18, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New Jersey and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 567, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83.2	83	40%	+33.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	79.5	79	35%	+27.8
Market Momentum Score	42.1	42	25%	+10.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,849	73	40%	+29.3
Median household income (ACS)	227,242	99	40%	+39.8
Households (ACS)	3,983	71	20%	+14.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	20	63	35%	+22.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.1	92	25%	+22.9
Population (ACS)	11,849	73	20%	+14.6
Median household income (ACS)	227,242	99	20%	+19.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 42 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	20	63	30%	+18.9
20-year restaurant growth	-25	12	20%	+2.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (9)

By cuisine

Breakfast 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · Coffee 1 · French 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Indian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 5 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Quick service 2 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
206 Corner Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · Breakfast	2127 US-206	open
Baba’s Bagel - Belle Mead NJ	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	21 Belle Mead-Griggstown Rd	open
Bleu Terra Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1980 US Highway 206	open
Bw Clifford Candy	Dessert · Brewery / taproom	Breakfast	6 Fawn Dr	open
Paris Baguette	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French	2311 US-206 Belle Mead, A	open
Playa Bowls Playa Bowls	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	21 Bellemead Griggstown Rd	open
SriRangam - Veg Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	2311 US-206 Ste 102	open
The Bong Cabin	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused		75 Mill Pond Rd	open
The Fudge Shoppe	Dessert		21 Bellemead Griggstown Rd Unit 115	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	19	18	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	18	17	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	25	24	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	26	25	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	25	20	7	8	5	1	NAICS1997
1999	22	19	8	9	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	13	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	13	12	4	6	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	10	8	3	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	10	8	2	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	8	6	2	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	7	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	8	6	3	1	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	9	6	1	2	3	1	NAICS2007
2009	12	9	1	2	6	1	NAICS2007
2010	11	8	1	2	5	1	NAICS2007
2011	8	5	—	2	3	1	NAICS2007
2012	8	5	—	2	3	1	NAICS2012
2013	8	5	—	2	3	1	NAICS2012
2014	8	5	—	2	3	1	NAICS2012
2015	9	6	1	2	3	1	NAICS2012
2016	9	7	2	2	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	8	3	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	8	6	—	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	7	—	3	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	8	6	—	—	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	7	—	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	7	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	7	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 08502. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
08553	3.4 mi	3	2022
08844	3.5 mi	63	2023
08558	3.6 mi	11	2023
08528	4.6 mi	6	2023
08823	4.7 mi	23	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.