BMIE Market 11980

Suffolk County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,855 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±889 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,574 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±380 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,990 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,646 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$102,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29,248 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,955 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±405 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$450,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±33,911 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	12.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11980
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2016 → 2021, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+133.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+133.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+600.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 4–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2009–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.42) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	79 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	67 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11980. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2009–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.42, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	71.2	71	40%	+28.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	78.5	79	35%	+27.5
Market Momentum Score	66.9	67	25%	+16.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,855	63	40%	+25.2
Median household income (ACS)	102,600	83	40%	+33.0
Households (ACS)	2,574	65	20%	+13.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	133.3	95	35%	+33.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.0	65	25%	+16.2
Population (ACS)	5,855	63	20%	+12.6
Median household income (ACS)	102,600	83	20%	+16.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	133.3	95	30%	+28.5
20-year restaurant growth	133.3	88	20%	+17.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (19)

By cuisine

Sandwiches 8 · American 5 · Coffee 5 · Dessert 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Quick service 7 · Casual dining 6 · Specialty food shop 6 · Bar 4 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 2 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Dessert 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Back Country Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	70 Horseblock Road #4	open
Back Country Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	70 Horseblock Rd	open
Baseball Cafe at Baseball Heaven Complex	Casual dining · Café · Bar	Coffee	350 Sills Rd	open
Carmans River Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Café	Sandwiches · Coffee	450 Main St	open
Charleys Cheesesteaks Charleys Cheesesteaks	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · American	901 Boulevard E	open
Charleys Philly Steaks Charleys Philly Steaks	Quick service	Sandwiches	901 Meadows Boulevard East	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	80a Horseblock Rd Hess	open
Frogzz Bar ‘N’ Grill	Casual dining · Bar		450 Main St	open
Mill Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Casual dining	Sandwiches · American	8 Mill Rd	open
Mill House Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	284 Mill Rd	open
Old Dock Grill	Casual dining · Quick service · Specialty food shop · Bar	American · Sandwiches	52 Old Dock Rd	open
Southpaw Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		501 Boulevard E	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	531 Boulevard E	open
Taco El Primo Mex Grill mobile	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	449 Main St	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	509 Boulevard E	open
Waste Management Of New York	Restaurant (service type not stated)		82 Old Dock Rd	open
Yaphank Community Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	E Main St & Yaphank Ave	open
Yaphank Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	908 E Main St	open
Black Rock Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		450 Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	1	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	3	2	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	6	4	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	4	2	1	1	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	4	2	1	1	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	4	2	1	1	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	5	3	1	2	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	6	4	—	3	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	5	3	1	1	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	4	2	1	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	4	2	1	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	4	3	1	1	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	4	3	2	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	4	2	1	1	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	5	3	2	1	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	4	3	2	1	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	5	4	2	2	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2020	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	7	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11980. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
11763	3.0 mi	49	2023
11973	3.1 mi	4	1997
11967	3.2 mi	51	2023
11713	3.8 mi	15	2023
11719	3.9 mi	3	2022
11953	4.4 mi	18	2023
11950	4.4 mi	12	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.