BMIE Market 11953
Suffolk County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 12,846 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,182 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 5,339 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±425 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 13,553 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 5,660 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $86,206 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,365 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 44.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $2,054 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±198 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $397,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,631 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 10.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 18 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11953 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 13.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | -10.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +28.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 15 (range 12–19) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.20) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 60 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 73 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 49 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 54 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11953. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.20, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 60 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 72.5 | 73 | 40% | +29.0 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 49.3 | 49 | 35% | +17.2 |
| Market Momentum Score | 54.4 | 54 | 25% | +13.6 |
Consumer Market Score: 73 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 12,846 | 74 | 40% | +29.8 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 86,206 | 69 | 40% | +27.8 |
| Households (ACS) | 5,339 | 75 | 20% | +15.0 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 49 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | -10 | 18 | 35% | +6.4 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 14.0 | 56 | 25% | +14.1 |
| Population (ACS) | 12,846 | 74 | 20% | +14.9 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 86,206 | 69 | 20% | +13.9 |
Market Momentum Score: 54 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 20 | 77 | 50% | +38.7 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | -10 | 18 | 30% | +5.5 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 28.6 | 51 | 20% | +10.2 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (38)
By cuisine
Sandwiches 8 · American 6 · Burgers 3 · Chinese 3 · Italian 3 · Pizza 3 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Coffee 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mexican 2 · Dessert 1 · European 1 · Greek 1 · Halal / kosher 1 · Japanese 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 23 · Quick service 8 · Specialty food shop 5 · Other 4 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Dessert 2 · Catering 1 · Food truck 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ada Mediterranean Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean · Italian · Middle Eastern | 175 Middle Country Rd | open |
| Athens Diner | Casual dining | Greek · European · American | 837 Middle Country Rd | open |
| AYCE Mongolian Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian | 848 Middle Country Rd | open |
| Bagel Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 187 Middle Country Rd | open | |
| Bagel Cafe | Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop · Café | Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee | 187 Middle Country Rd | open |
| Bagels 101 | Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop | Bakery · Sandwiches | 852 Middle Country Rd | open |
| Capio's Pizzeria & Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 1259 Middle Country Rd | open |
| Carvel Carvel Ice Cream | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 1289 Middle Country Rd | open |
| Friendly's | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 848 Middle Country Rd | open |
| Golden Jalapenos Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 833 Middle Country Rd | open |
| Good Wok Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Chinese | 1209 Middle Country Rd | open |
| Grilled Cheese Society | Other | Sandwiches | 848 Middle Country Rd | open |
| Ground and Sun Farms | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other | 45 Evergreen Ave | open | |
| Hollywood's Exotique | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 200 Middle Country Rd | open | |
| Kitchen 92 | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 850 Middle Country Rd | open |
| Littlemexico | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 10 Middle Country Rd | open |
| Lucia Middle Island | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Latin American (other) · American | 25 Middle Country Rd | open |
| Mac's Countryside Deli & Catering | Specialty food shop · Quick service · Catering | Sandwiches | 61 Half Mile Rd | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 1175 Middle Country Rd | open |
| MELTology | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Burgers | 848 Middle Country Rd | open |
| Middle Island Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 586 Middle Country Rd | open |
| Ming Ting | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 833 Middle Country Rd | open |
| Outlaw Burger | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 848 Middle Country Rd | open |
| Pissouri Corp Dba | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 837 Middle Country Rd | open | |
| Pizza Hut Pizza Hut | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Pizza | 858 Middle Country Rd Suffolk | open |
| Pupusas City | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) | 833 Middle Country Rd | open |
| Rocky Point Road Deli | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches | 1519 Rocky Point Rd | open |
| Shah’s Halal Food | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Halal / kosher | 884 Middle Country Rd | open |
| Strathmore On The Green | Bar | 100 Dorado Ct S | open | |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 1187 Middle Country Rd | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 750 Middle Country Rd | open |
| T's Chicken And Fish | Food truck | 975 Middle Country Rd | open | |
| The Backyard | Bar | 1241 Middle Country Rd | open | |
| the Cook Room | Casual dining | American | 25 Middle Country Rd | open |
| The Deli at Middle Island | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches | 848 Middle Country Rd | open |
| The Public House | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 30 E Bartlett Rd | open |
| Uncle Ray's Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 888 Middle Country Rd | open |
| Wine Gallery of Middle Island | Bar | 880 Middle Country Rd | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 14 | 12 | — | — | — | 2 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 13 | 11 | — | — | — | 2 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 14 | 12 | — | — | — | 2 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 14 | 12 | — | — | — | 2 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 16 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 19 | 18 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 24 | 23 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 23 | 21 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 13 | — | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 20 | 17 | 7 | 10 | — | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 19 | 17 | 8 | 9 | — | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 20 | 18 | 7 | 11 | — | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 20 | 18 | 6 | 12 | — | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 19 | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 21 | 20 | 7 | 12 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 20 | 19 | 7 | 11 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 18 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 19 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 2 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 18 | 17 | 6 | 9 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 16 | 15 | 5 | 8 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 16 | 15 | 6 | 7 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 16 | 15 | 3 | 10 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 17 | 16 | 3 | 11 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 19 | 18 | 4 | 12 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 18 | 18 | 5 | 11 | — | — | NAICS2022 |