BMIE Market 14613

Monroe County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	15,047 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,266 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,860 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±591 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	14,730 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,146 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$37,778 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,045 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	32.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$945 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±69 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$120,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,628 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	1.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14613
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+15.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+36.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+25.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 16–21) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.73) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	48 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	74 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14613. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.73, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	48.0	48	40%	+19.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60.8	61	35%	+21.3
Market Momentum Score	74.0	74	25%	+18.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	15,047	77	40%	+30.7
Median household income (ACS)	37,778	5	40%	+2.0
Households (ACS)	5,860	77	20%	+15.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	36.4	75	35%	+26.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.0	72	25%	+18.1
Population (ACS)	15,047	77	20%	+15.3
Median household income (ACS)	37,778	5	20%	+1.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	15.4	73	50%	+36.7
10-year restaurant growth	36.4	75	30%	+22.6
20-year restaurant growth	66.7	73	20%	+14.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (30)

By cuisine

American 7 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Chicken / wings 3 · Chinese 3 · Dessert 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Burgers 2 · Seafood 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Caribbean 1 · Coffee 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Quick service 8 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Bar 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Beautifully Bronzed	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1326 Dewey Ave	open
Better Choice Jamaican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	489 Dewey Ave	open
Born & Raised Slurps	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	624 Lexington Ave	open
CJ's Southern Soul	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern · BBQ	701 Lake Ave	open
Dew E Sub	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Sandwiches · Chicken / wings	740 Dewey Ave	open
Dinner & Dessert	Quick service	American · Seafood		open
Donna Marie's Gf Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Healthy / salads / bowls · Dessert	164 Newbury St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	741 Lake Ave	open
H & A Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Pizza	1042 Dewey Ave	open
Hooked Fish Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	333 Driving Park Ave	open
Lake Hots	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	534 Lake Ave	open
Lake N Glendale Chinese Restaurant Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		640 Lake Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	788 Lake Ave	open
Michael Delgaizo, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1324 Dewey Ave	open
Min's Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	353 Lexington Ave	open
Mojoes Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	107 Driving Park Ave	open
My Way Station	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Breakfast	735 Emerson St	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	541 Lake Avenue	open
Robbieandcruz's kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering	American	15 Plover St	open
Rochester Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	335 Driving Park Ave	open
Salvatore's Old Fashioned Pizzeria Salvatore's Old Fashioned Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1324 Dewey Ave	open
Sea & Soul Food House	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1308 Dewey Ave	open
Straight Home Inn	Bar	Pizza	688 Lexington Ave	open
Tangie's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	586 Lake Ave	open
Tracy’s smeals	Dessert		416 Clay Ave	open
Vigneri Chocolate	Dessert	Dessert	810 Emerson St	open
Welker's Grill Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1428 Dewey Ave	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	683 Lake Av.	open
Yummy Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)		640 Lake Ave	open
Yummy House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1354 Dewey Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	16	12	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	17	12	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1996	17	10	—	—	—	7	SIC1987
1997	17	11	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1998	14	9	3	6	—	5	NAICS1997
1999	14	10	2	8	—	4	NAICS1997
2000	13	8	2	6	—	5	NAICS1997
2001	14	11	2	7	2	3	NAICS1997
2002	10	7	1	6	—	3	NAICS1997
2003	12	9	1	7	1	3	NAICS2002
2004	16	12	3	8	1	4	NAICS2002
2005	14	11	1	10	—	3	NAICS2002
2006	16	13	1	11	1	3	NAICS2002
2007	14	12	1	10	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	14	11	—	10	1	3	NAICS2007
2009	16	12	—	10	2	4	NAICS2007
2010	18	15	1	12	2	3	NAICS2007
2011	18	16	1	12	3	2	NAICS2007
2012	13	11	1	9	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	13	11	—	10	1	2	NAICS2012
2014	13	11	—	10	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	13	11	—	10	1	2	NAICS2012
2016	15	13	1	11	1	2	NAICS2012
2017	15	13	—	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	13	3	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	13	3	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	14	4	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	21	17	6	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	14	5	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	15	6	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14613. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14615	1.5 mi	29	2023
14621	1.9 mi	54	2023
14608	2.1 mi	18	2023
14614	2.1 mi	12	2023
14605	2.2 mi	11	2023
14611	2.4 mi	14	2023
14604	2.5 mi	37	2023
14606	3.0 mi	41	2023
14619	3.2 mi	4	2023
14607	3.4 mi	105	2023
14616	3.7 mi	33	2023
14627	3.7 mi	1	2009

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.