BMIE Market 40209

Jefferson County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	639 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±351 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	336 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±202 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	360 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	185 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	Data source not yet connected
Median age	45.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$984 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±83 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$127,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±65,719 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	4.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 40209
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	194.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-11.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-11.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+33.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 4–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.35) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	23 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	23 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	22 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	23 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 40209. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.35, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 23 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	23.3	23	40%	+9.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	21.7	22	35%	+7.6
Market Momentum Score	22.7	23	25%	+5.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 23 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	639	25	40%	+9.9
Median household income (ACS)	52,697	18	40%	+7.4
Households (ACS)	336	30	20%	+6.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 22 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	125.2	3	25%	+0.8
Population (ACS)	639	25	20%	+5.0
Median household income (ACS)	52,697	18	20%	+3.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 23 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	50%	+8.9
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	-11.1	17	20%	+3.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (33)

By cuisine

American 8 · Burgers 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Pizza 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Italian 2 · Mexican 2 · Bakery 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 22 · Quick service 8 · Bar 6 · Dessert 3 · Casual dining 2 · Other 2 · Bakery 1 · Café 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2804 Crittenden Dr	open
Auntie Anne's Auntie Anne's	Quick service		600 Terminal Drive	open
Black Olive Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2745 Crittenden Dr Suit A	open
Blue Horse Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	830 Phillips Ln	open
Book and Bourbon Southern Kitchen	Casual dining · Bar	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	600 Terminal Dr	open
Bourbon & Beyond Festival	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1016 Phillips Ln	open
Bourbon Academy Tasting Room	Bar		600 Terminal Dr	open
Brown & Williamson Club	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2800 S Floyd St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	2700 Crittenden Dr	open
Cardinal Hall Of Fame Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2745 Crittenden Dr	open
Casa Mia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	937 Phillips Ln	open
Chili's Grill & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		600 Terminal Drive	open
Coconut Beach Tacos & Cerveza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	2787 S Floyd St	open
Cracker Barrel Cracker Barrel Old Country Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	2701 Crittenden Dr	open
Ehrler's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	937 Phillips Ln	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	600 Terminal Dr	open
La Tapenade Mediterranean Café	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	600 Terminal Dr, Concourse A	open
Levy at the Kentucky Exposition Center	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		937 Phillips Ln	open
Pepsi-Cola General Bottlers	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		4008 Crittenden Dr	open
Pita Hut Enterprises	Restaurant (service type not stated)		937 Phillips Ln	open
Pizzeria Villagio	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other · Dessert · Bar · Bakery · Quick service · Casual dining	Pizza · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Bakery · American	937 Phillips Ln	open
Pnc Club	Bar		2800 S Floyd St	open
Scoops	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	937 Phillips Ln	open
Service America Corporation	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2800 S Floyd St	open
Smashburger Smashburger	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza · Burgers · Italian · American	600 Terminal Dr. #10	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Quick service · Café	Coffee	600 Terminal Dr	open
Supreme Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering		100 Central Ave	open
Swamp Water Jack's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Burgers	State Highway Kingdom	open
Taco Tequila	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	937 Phillips Ln	open
The Bluegrass Smokehouse	Food truck		937 Phillips Ln	open
The Budweiser Entertainment Tent	Bar		937 Phillips Ln	open
Woodford Reserve Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		600 Terminal Dr	open
Quiznos	Quick service		600 Terminal Dr	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	4	—	3	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	7	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	6	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	10	8	2	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	10	9	1	6	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	11	10	2	6	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	13	9	2	5	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	13	9	2	5	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	15	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	12	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	12	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	15	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	16	8	2	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	15	9	2	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	15	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	14	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 40209. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
40221	1.0 mi	2	2004
40213	1.1 mi	45	2023
40231	2.4 mi	1	2014
40217	2.4 mi	41	2023
40215	2.8 mi	10	2023
40208	2.9 mi	29	2023
40214	3.4 mi	53	2023
40219	3.8 mi	76	2023
40205	4.0 mi	56	2023
40204	4.0 mi	63	2023
40218	4.2 mi	45	2023
40210	4.4 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.