BMIE Market 40210
Jefferson County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 13,518 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,399 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 5,612 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±523 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 14,822 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 7,258 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $35,347 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,250 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 37.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $848 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±117 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $98,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,595 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 3.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 3 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 40210 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 5.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | -57.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | -50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | -40.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | -25.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 2 (range 0–4) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.60) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 34 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 47 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 42 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 4 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 40210. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.60, confidence Medium.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 34 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 46.8 | 47 | 40% | +18.7 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 42.1 | 42 | 35% | +14.7 |
| Market Momentum Score | 3.5 | 4 | 25% | +0.9 |
Consumer Market Score: 47 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 13,518 | 75 | 40% | +30.0 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 35,347 | 4 | 40% | +1.5 |
| Households (ACS) | 5,612 | 76 | 20% | +15.2 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 42 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | -50 | 5 | 35% | +1.6 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 2.2 | 99 | 25% | +24.7 |
| Population (ACS) | 13,518 | 75 | 20% | +15.0 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 35,347 | 4 | 20% | +0.8 |
Market Momentum Score: 4 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | -57.1 | 1 | 50% | +0.7 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | -50 | 5 | 30% | +1.4 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | -40 | 7 | 20% | +1.5 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (33)
By cuisine
American 7 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 4 · Chicken / wings 4 · BBQ 3 · Burgers 2 · Pizza 2 · Breakfast 1 · Coffee 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Sandwiches 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Bar 6 · Winery / distillery / taproom 5 · Casual dining 3 · Quick service 3 · Café 1 · Dessert 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 Acres & A Mule | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern | 1800 Dixie Hwy | open |
| Bernheim Distillery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 1701 W Breckinridge St | open | |
| Brough Brothers Distillery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 1460 Dixie Hwy | open | |
| Brown-Forman Brands | Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 850 Dixie Hwy #1038 | open | |
| Dixie Chicken Dixie Chicken | Quick service | Chicken / wings · BBQ | 1785 W Oak St | open |
| Eve's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 1670 S 17th St | open |
| Food 4 Tha Soul Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern | 1714 Prentice St | open |
| Haywood's Ice Cream | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 1449 McCloskey Ave | open |
| Heaven Hill Distilleries | Winery / distillery / taproom | 1701 W Breckinridge St | open | |
| Hill Street Lounge | Bar | 1700 W Hill St | open | |
| Holi Gin | Winery / distillery / taproom | 1110 Wilson Ave | open | |
| Hunt Brothers Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 1612 Dixie Hwy | open |
| Inkredible's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 1506 Dixie Hwy | open |
| Kings Fried Chicken | Quick service | Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 1302 Dixie Hwy | open |
| KJ's Catering and Barbecue | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2300 W Kentucky St | open | |
| Krispy Krunchy Chicken Krispy Krunchy Chicken Hayward | Quick service | American · Chicken / wings | 1610 Dixie Hwy | open |
| Lucy Mae's Food Mart & Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American · Breakfast | 2300 W Kentucky St | open |
| Mark's Feed Store | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 1704 Dixie Hwy | open |
| Martin's Tavern Martin's Tavern | Bar | 1614 Dixie Hwy | open | |
| Moma Love's Homestyle Cooking and Catering | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 1230 S 17th St | open |
| Rally's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 1800 W Hill St | open |
| Rite Way Bar-B-Cue House | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 1548 W Saint Catherine St | open |
| S Bar | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1442 Dixie Hwy | open | |
| Shine's Diner | Casual dining · Café | American · Coffee | Dixie 40210\n\n | open |
| St Matthias Cafeteria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2208 Dixie Hwy | open | |
| Steve's Bar & Grill | Bar | 1670 S 17th St | open | |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 1442 Dixie Hwy | open |
| The Hood | Bar | open | ||
| The Trap Wangs and More | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Chicken / wings · American | 1823 W Kentucky St | open |
| Trap Snacks and tobacco plug | Juice, smoothie, tea | Juice / smoothies | 1100 Dixie Hwy | open |
| Wagon Wheel | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 1633 W Kentucky St | open |
| Westend of Louisville | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | open | |
| Xhale Restaurant & Lounge | Bar | 1670 S 17th St | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 7 | 4 | — | — | — | 3 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 6 | 3 | — | — | — | 3 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 7 | 5 | — | — | — | 2 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 9 | 6 | — | — | — | 3 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 5 | — | 3 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 5 | — | 3 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 6 | — | 3 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 5 | — | 3 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 5 | — | 3 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3 | — | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 4 | — | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 | — | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 6 | — | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 4 | — | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 4 | — | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 5 | — | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 6 | — | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 5 | — | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 6 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 5 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 5 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 5 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 5 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 7 | 6 | — | 5 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 8 | 7 | — | 6 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 7 | 6 | — | 5 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 6 | 5 | — | 5 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 5 | 4 | — | 4 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 5 | 4 | — | 4 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 4 | 3 | — | 3 | — | — | NAICS2022 |