BMIE Market 40215

Jefferson County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	20,532 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,522 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,207 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±481 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	22,287 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	10,085 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$43,725 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,587 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	37.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,049 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±51 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$114,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,641 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	3.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 40215
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-37.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 8–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.13) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	53 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	53 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	54 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 40215. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.13, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	52.5	53	40%	+21.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53.4	53	35%	+18.7
Market Momentum Score	53.8	54	25%	+13.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	20,532	82	40%	+32.7
Median household income (ACS)	43,725	9	40%	+3.4
Households (ACS)	8,207	82	20%	+16.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.9	92	25%	+23.0
Population (ACS)	20,532	82	20%	+16.4
Median household income (ACS)	43,725	9	20%	+1.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	25	81	50%	+40.4
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	20%	+2.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (34)

By cuisine

American 6 · Mexican 4 · Pizza 4 · Burgers 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · African 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Bar 8 · Quick service 6 · Casual dining 4 · Dessert 2 · Café 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
7TH STREET BAR -N- GRILL & HOOKAH	Casual dining · Bar		2750 7th St Rd	open
Bella's Diner	Casual dining · Café	American · Coffee	4106 Taylor Blvd	open
Cactus jacks bar	Bar		3640 Taylor Blvd	open
Candy For Caring	Dessert		4335 Hazelwood Ave	open
Cha Cha's Soul Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	1504 Berry Blvd	open
El Caballo Sports Bar & Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		3294 Taylor Blvd	open
Golden Star	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	3458 Taylor Blvd	open
Hardee’s	Quick service		3459 Taylor Blvd	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3283 Taylor Blvd	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1810 Berry Boulevard	open
Jerseyyy Flavor	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	1104 W Ashland Ave	open
Kfc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	3280 Taylor Blvd	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Chicken / wings	3901 Taylor Boulevard	open
Kwetu African Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	African · American	1725 Berry Blvd	open
La bonita saritah	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	4402 Taylor Blvd	open
La Casita Taqueria Mexicana	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1504 Berry Blvd	open
La Guanaquita	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Mexican	4231 Taylor Blvd	open
Los Hermanos Catrachos Honduras restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	4106 Taylor Blvd	open
Louisville Pizza King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3505 Taylor Blvd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3340 Taylor Blvd	open
Milagro Food Truck	Food truck	Mexican	1506 Sale Ave	open
Old Rascals	Bar		1102 W Ashland Ave	open
Old Taylor Bar	Bar		3464 Taylor Blvd	open
Paddock Pub	Bar		501 W Evelyn Ave	open
Rally's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3455 Taylor Blvd	open
Royal Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	501 W Evelyn Ave	open
Taco Bell	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3459 Taylor Blvd	open
Taylor Blvd DQ Cakes Dairy Queen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	4137 Taylor Blvd	open
The Best Pizza In Town, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1725 Berry Blvd	open
TJ's Simply Blessed Soulfood	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4106 Taylor Blvd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3422 Taylor Road	open
Win Place & Show Bar	Bar		3425 Taylor Blvd	open
Wyandotte Tavern	Bar		3700 Taylor Blvd	open
Retta’s Hookah Lounge	Casual dining · Bar		2750 7th Street Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	24	16	—	—	—	8	SIC1987
1995	22	13	—	—	—	9	SIC1987
1996	27	16	—	—	—	11	SIC1987
1997	28	18	—	—	—	10	SIC1987
1998	27	14	2	9	3	10	NAICS1997
1999	29	15	2	8	5	11	NAICS1997
2000	26	14	1	8	5	9	NAICS1997
2001	26	14	1	8	5	10	NAICS1997
2002	22	12	2	8	2	8	NAICS1997
2003	22	12	2	9	1	7	NAICS2002
2004	18	11	1	9	1	5	NAICS2002
2005	19	12	2	9	1	6	NAICS2002
2006	19	12	2	9	1	6	NAICS2002
2007	15	8	2	6	—	6	NAICS2002
2008	14	8	2	6	—	4	NAICS2007
2009	15	8	2	6	—	5	NAICS2007
2010	17	8	3	5	—	5	NAICS2007
2011	16	9	2	7	—	4	NAICS2007
2012	16	9	1	7	—	5	NAICS2012
2013	20	10	1	9	—	6	NAICS2012
2014	16	9	2	7	—	5	NAICS2012
2015	18	10	2	8	—	6	NAICS2012
2016	18	10	1	9	—	6	NAICS2012
2017	15	9	—	8	—	5	NAICS2017
2018	13	8	—	7	—	4	NAICS2017
2019	14	9	—	8	—	4	NAICS2017
2020	13	9	—	7	—	3	NAICS2017
2021	16	11	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	18	12	4	6	—	3	NAICS2022
2023	13	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 40215. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
40221	1.8 mi	2	2004
40208	2.2 mi	29	2023
40209	2.8 mi	8	2023
40210	2.8 mi	3	2023
40216	2.9 mi	47	2023
40214	2.9 mi	53	2023
40217	3.2 mi	41	2023
40211	3.8 mi	14	2023
40213	3.8 mi	45	2023
40203	4.4 mi	24	2023
40202	4.7 mi	91	2023
40204	4.8 mi	63	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.