BMIE Market 40203
Jefferson County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 17,742 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,593 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 8,911 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±716 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 19,694 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 11,014 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $30,794 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,966 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 32.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $809 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±73 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $197,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,710 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 2.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 24 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 40203 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 9.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +41.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +41.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | -11.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +4.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 28 (range 24–31) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.78) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 58 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 49 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 71 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 40203. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.78, confidence High.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 58 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 49.4 | 49 | 40% | +19.7 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 58.1 | 58 | 35% | +20.3 |
| Market Momentum Score | 70.5 | 71 | 25% | +17.6 |
Consumer Market Score: 49 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 17,742 | 79 | 40% | +31.8 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 30,794 | 2 | 40% | +0.9 |
| Households (ACS) | 8,911 | 83 | 20% | +16.7 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 41.2 | 78 | 35% | +27.2 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 13.5 | 58 | 25% | +14.6 |
| Population (ACS) | 17,742 | 79 | 20% | +15.9 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 30,794 | 2 | 20% | +0.5 |
Market Momentum Score: 71 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 41.2 | 88 | 50% | +43.9 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 41.2 | 78 | 30% | +23.3 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | -11.1 | 17 | 20% | +3.3 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (109)
By cuisine
American 18 · Coffee 14 · Bakery 9 · Sandwiches 7 · Burgers 6 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 6 · Chicken / wings 6 · Dessert 4 · Pizza 4 · Italian 3 · BBQ 2 · Breakfast 2 · European 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Mexican 2 · Vegetarian 2 · African 1 · Asian 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 59 · Bar 20 · Quick service 13 · Bakery 10 · Café 10 · Casual dining 9 · Coffee shop 7 · Dessert 7 · Brewery / taproom 5 · Other 5 · Food truck 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Fast casual 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Taste of China | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 1167 S 4th St | open |
| Adrienne And Co. | Bakery | Bakery | 1212 S 4th St | open |
| Against The Grain Portland Production | Brewery / taproom | 1800 Northwestern Pkwy | open | |
| Amici Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 316 W Ormsby Ave | open |
| Amore Di Mona Llc | Dessert | Dessert | 204 N 17th St | open |
| Aspire Cafe, Deli & Fresh Market | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 418 S 18th St | open | |
| Bar Vetti | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 800 S 4th St | open |
| Barasti Bar & Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1164 S 3rd St | open | |
| Barry's Cheese Steaks & More Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1161 S 2nd St | open | |
| Blak Koffee | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 1219 W Jefferson St | open |
| Bori Sweets, Llc | Bakery | Bakery | 1300 W Muhammad Ali Blvd | open |
| Bourbon Baekehouse - An Old Louisville Micro-Incubator for Women Bakers | Bakery · Café | Bakery · Coffee | 1164 S Brook St | open |
| Brunch & Soul | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Breakfast · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 516 S 18th St | open |
| Buck's Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar | 425 W Ormsby Ave | open | |
| Cafezinho | Café | Coffee | 1512 Portland Ave | open |
| Canary Club | Bar | 1247 S Shelby St | open | |
| Captain's Quarter's Yacht Club | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | European | open | |
| Carly Rae’s | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 103 W Oak St | open | |
| CCs Low Carb Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 800 S 4th St | open |
| Copper Kettle Beer Cheese | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 1406 W Chestnut St | open | |
| Cowboy's 420 Bar and Grill | Casual dining · Bar | 809 S Shelby St | open | |
| D. Nalley's | Casual dining | American | 970 S 3rd St | open |
| Daddy Rich's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 617 W Oak St | open |
| Dairy Queen | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 2058 Portland Ave | open |
| Dasha Barbours 2 | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 1300 W Muhammad Ali Blvd | open |
| Derby City Smokehouse | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar | BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American | 508 S 18th St | open |
| Dipper's Delight | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 908 S 8th St | open |
| Dizzy Whizz Drive-In | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers · American | 217 St Catherine St | open |
| El Bread Shop | Bakery | Bakery | open | |
| Elixir Bar | Bar | 414 W Oak St | open | |
| Elixir Kombucha | Brewery / taproom | 110 N 13th St | open | |
| Fire & Desire | Restaurant (service type not stated) | African | 1809 W Jefferson St | open |
| Food For Life | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 1212 S 4th St | open |
| Fresh Chicken Town | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 1420 W Broadway | open |
| GastroNuevo | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 800 S 4th St | open | |
| Good Folks Coffee | Coffee shop | Coffee | 1151 S Shelby St | open |
| Happy Balls | Dessert | 516 St Catherine St | open | |
| Hip Hop Sweet Shop | Dessert · Bakery | Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Bakery | 516 S 18th St | open |
| Hunt Brothers Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 2001 Bank St | open |
| Indi's Fast Food Restaurant Indi's Fast Food in Lexington | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 1033 W Broadway | open |
| Jon'ta' Juicez | Juice, smoothie, tea | Juice / smoothies | 1151 S 4th St | open |
| KFC KFC | Quick service | One Arena Plaza | open | |
| KFC KFC | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 1911 W Broadway St | open |
| Krispy Krunchy Chicken Krispy Krunchy Chicken | Quick service | 521 N 22nd St | open | |
| Krispy Krunchy Chicken | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 1123 S Floyd St | open |
| Krispy Krunchy Chicken | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 1025 West Broadway | open |
| Kuber Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 719 S Brook St | open | |
| Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 529 N 22nd St | open |
| Louisville Fried Chicken | Food truck | 908 W Broadway | open | |
| Lucretia's Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern | 1812 W Muhammad Ali Blvd | open |
| Luna Sol Pizzeria and Bakery | Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Bakery | 213 W Ormsby Ave | open |
| Mamma Sally's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern | 1812 W Muhammad Ali Blvd | open |
| Marinations Catering | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1812 W Muhammad Ali Blvd | open | |
| McAlister's Deli | Specialty food shop · Fast casual · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls | 2100 S Floyd St #W206 | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 1212 W Broadway | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 520 N 22nd St | open |
| McQuixote Books & Coffee | Coffee shop | Coffee | 1512 Portland Ave., Ste. 1 | open |
| MishMash Cafe | Café · Food truck · Coffee shop | Coffee | 955 S Shelby St | open |
| Molly Malones Irish Pub and Restaurant | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | British / Irish pub food | 1812 W Muhammad Ali Blvd | open |
| Mr. G’s Kettle Corn | Other · Dessert | Dessert | 1400 W Madison St | open |
| Napa Ccc Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1024 S 3rd St | open | |
| Noble Hearth Craft Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Brewery / taproom · Bar | 922 S 2nd St | open | |
| Norma Jean's Baked Goods | Bakery | Bakery | 1812 W Muhammad Ali Blvd | open |
| North Lime Coffee & Donuts | Bakery · Dessert | Dessert | 1228 S 7th St | open |
| Ohana's Lounge and Event Space | Bar | 1164 S 3rd St | open | |
| Old Louisville Chili Bowl Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 501 W Oak St | open | |
| Ollie's Trolley | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 978 S 3rd St | open |
| Our Place Cafe | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop | Coffee | 533 W Kentucky St | open |
| Outback Steakhouse Outback Steakhouse | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse | open | |
| Perso | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · European | 741 E Oak St | open |
| Pit Barrel Cooker Co. | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 501 S 15th St | open |
| Pizza Today | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 908 S 8th St | open |
| Plantas Louisville | Quick service | Vegetarian · Mexican | 422 W Oak St | open |
| Pop's Roadside Diner | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Sandwiches | 1812 W Muhammad Ali Blvd | open |
| Revolution Confections | Dessert | 1812 W Muhammad Ali Blvd | open | |
| Roof Top Grill - Oak Street | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Caribbean | 414 W Oak St | open |
| Sabor Latino | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) | 1273 S Brook St | open |
| Scarlet's Bakery | Bakery | Bakery | 741 E Oak St | open |
| Shippingport Brewing Company | Brewery / taproom | Sandwiches | 1221 W Main St | open |
| Shirley Mae's Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 802 S Clay St | open |
| SiliconCafe | Café | Coffee | 515 S 18th St | open |
| Slice | Other | Sandwiches | 1161 S 2nd St | open |
| Southern Express | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern · American | 418 W Oak St | open |
| Splendid V | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Vegetarian · American | 517 W Breckinridge St | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 719 S Brook St | open |
| Sweet Peaches | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 1800 W Muhammad Ali Blvd | open |
| Taco Bell | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | One Arena Plaza | open | |
| Taco rico Taco Rico | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 519 W Oak St | open |
| TAG Lounge | Bar | 723 S Brook St | open | |
| Tangram Associates | Bar | 931 S Preston St | open | |
| Tha Drippin Crab | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1219 W Jefferson St | open | |
| The Breeze Wine Shop and Coffee Bar | Bar · Coffee shop | Coffee | 1247 S Shelby St | open |
| The Brown Hotel Cafe | Café · Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee · American · Breakfast | 335 W Broadway, Louisville, KY 40202 | open |
| The House Lounge | Bar | 1148 Garvin Pl | open | |
| The Palm Room | Bar | 1821 W Jefferson St | open | |
| The Table | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee · American | 1800 Portland Ave | open |
| TINO'S TASTE OF HEAVEN | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 1800 MOHAMMED ALI Blvd Ste A | open |
| Toasty's Tavern | Casual dining · Bar | American | 1258 S Shelby St | open |
| Toonerville Deli | Other · Bakery | Sandwiches · Bakery | 1201 S 1st St | open |
| Top Hat Cafe | Café | Coffee · American | 1300 W Muhammad Ali Blvd | open |
| Trouble Bar | Bar | 1149 S Shelby St | open | |
| Vis a Vis Bar and Grill | Bar | 1164 S 3rd St | open | |
| Von Payne Castle | Winery / distillery / taproom | 1400 W Broadway | open | |
| Wangz & Thangz | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 317 W Oak St | open |
| wells made co | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other | 1812 W Muhammad Ali Blvd | open | |
| Wendy's Wendy's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 1201 W Broadway | open |
| West Lou Coffee | Coffee shop | Coffee | 1812 W Muhammad Ali Blvd | open |
| Yummy Yummy Chicken & Fish | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 317 W Oak St | open |
| Expressions Of You Coffee House | Café | Coffee | 1800 W Muhammad Ali Blvd Ste A | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 29 | 23 | — | — | — | 6 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 26 | 21 | — | — | — | 5 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 27 | 22 | — | — | — | 5 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 33 | 26 | — | — | — | 7 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 33 | 27 | 9 | 17 | — | 4 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 29 | 23 | 9 | 13 | — | 4 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 31 | 24 | 9 | 14 | — | 5 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 29 | 22 | 7 | 14 | — | 5 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 32 | 26 | 10 | 14 | — | 5 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 32 | 27 | 8 | 15 | 2 | 3 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 32 | 27 | 9 | 14 | 2 | 3 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 32 | 29 | 11 | 13 | 3 | 3 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 27 | 25 | 11 | 11 | 2 | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 31 | 28 | 10 | 14 | 3 | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 31 | 28 | 8 | 17 | 2 | 2 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 31 | 27 | 8 | 16 | 2 | 2 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 2 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 3 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 23 | 19 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 3 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 20 | 17 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 3 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 20 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 3 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 3 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 21 | 16 | 4 | 12 | — | 4 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 21 | 18 | 7 | 11 | — | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 20 | 17 | 5 | 12 | — | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 22 | 19 | 5 | 14 | — | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 25 | 22 | 7 | 15 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 29 | 23 | 6 | 16 | — | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 27 | 22 | 6 | 15 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 29 | 24 | 6 | 15 | 3 | — | NAICS2022 |