BMIE Market 40211

Jefferson County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	20,407 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,510 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,781 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±653 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	22,612 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	11,181 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$31,749 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,758 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$952 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±34 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$100,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,566 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	7.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	14 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 40211
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-6.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-17.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-12.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	14 (range 11–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.02) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	44 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	50 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	24 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 40211. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.02, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	50.4	50	40%	+20.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50.3	50	35%	+17.6
Market Momentum Score	24.0	24	25%	+6.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	20,407	82	40%	+32.7
Median household income (ACS)	31,749	3	40%	+1.1
Households (ACS)	8,781	83	20%	+16.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.9	85	25%	+21.2
Population (ACS)	20,407	82	20%	+16.4
Median household income (ACS)	31,749	3	20%	+0.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 24 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-6.7	21	50%	+10.7
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	-17.7	14	20%	+2.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (40)

By cuisine

American 7 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 6 · Burgers 3 · Asian 2 · BBQ 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Coffee 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · African 1 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Seafood 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 28 · Quick service 10 · Bar 5 · Café 2 · Catering 2 · Bakery 1 · Casual dining 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Big Momma's Soul Food Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	4532 W Broadway	open
Bigmomma SoulFood kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American · African	1213 S 28th St	open
Bmw Investments	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2600 W Broadway	open
Bobby Ray & Son's Deli	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1500 Hemlock St	open
Chopsticks House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2112 W Broadway	open
CJ's Soul Food & Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	665 Eastlawn St	open
Crystal's Country Diner South	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3309 Camp Ground Rd	open
Davis Cookie Co	Bakery	Bakery	2522 W Broadway	open
Double Deuce Sports Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	2529 W Broadway	open
Double Dragon Double Dragon II At Dixie Hwy	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused · Catering		2600 W Broadway	open
Family Ties of Louisville	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	1030 Cecil Ave	open
Fresh Prep	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	2523 W Broadway	open
Julee's Mocha	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	2900 W Broadway	open
King's Fast Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2101 W Broadway	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	3300 Algonquin Pkwy	open
L. H. Tran, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2112 W Broadway	open
Long John Silver's Long John Silver's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	3407 W Broadway	open
Longshots Bar Louisville	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering		3309 Camp Ground Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · Breakfast	2720 W Broadway	open
Msd	Bar		4522 Algonquin Pkwy	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2111 W Broadway	open
Pd Sandwich Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · American	3502 Cane Run Rd	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2733 W Broadway St Jefferson	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2618-W Broadway	open
Rally's Checkers and Rally's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2130 W Broadway	open
Sam's Fast Food	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	2101 W Broadway	open
Soulful Choices	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	4532 W Broadway	open
Southern Hospitality	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	3402 W Broadway #2824	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2716 W Broadway	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	2801 W Broadway Ave	open
The Common Table Garden Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	1200 S 28th St	open
Tidbits502	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2730 Dumesnil St	open
Totally Cool Smoovy	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	4150 Sunset Ave	open
Vybe Lounge	Bar		2417 W Broadway	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3301 Cane Run Road	open
Yearlings Club Inc	Bar		4309 W Broadway	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	2710 W Broadway	open
Debs Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2101 W Broadway	closed
Irma Dee's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	1213 S 28th St	closed
Louisville Broncos Youth Sports Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3333 W Kentucky St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	20	16	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	20	16	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1996	24	20	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1997	22	19	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	20	16	2	10	3	4	NAICS1997
1999	21	18	3	12	2	3	NAICS1997
2000	22	19	2	11	4	3	NAICS1997
2001	21	18	3	10	4	3	NAICS1997
2002	24	18	2	12	3	6	NAICS1997
2003	20	17	2	13	1	3	NAICS2002
2004	21	18	2	15	1	3	NAICS2002
2005	19	16	1	15	—	3	NAICS2002
2006	18	16	1	15	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	19	16	2	14	—	3	NAICS2002
2008	20	18	2	16	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	17	14	1	13	—	3	NAICS2007
2010	17	14	1	12	—	3	NAICS2007
2011	16	14	1	12	—	2	NAICS2007
2012	17	15	1	14	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	16	14	1	13	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	16	13	1	12	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	15	13	1	12	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	16	14	1	13	—	2	NAICS2012
2017	18	16	4	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	15	3	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	15	—	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	14	3	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	14	13	3	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	14	4	10	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 40211. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
40210	2.1 mi	3	2023
40212	2.5 mi	6	2023
40203	3.4 mi	24	2023
40208	3.4 mi	29	2023
40216	3.5 mi	47	2023
47150	3.5 mi	111	2023
40215	3.8 mi	10	2023
40202	4.1 mi	91	2023
40217	4.9 mi	41	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.