BMIE Market 40208
Jefferson County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 15,605 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,164 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 5,813 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±400 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 13,227 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 6,246 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $39,560 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,576 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 23.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $997 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±72 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $188,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±28,463 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 2.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 29 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 40208 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 13.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +3.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +52.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +52.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +26.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 34 (range 27–41) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.7 per year, r² 0.35) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 56 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 49 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 57 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 69 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 40208. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.35, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 56 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 48.6 | 49 | 40% | +19.4 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 56.5 | 57 | 35% | +19.8 |
| Market Momentum Score | 69.0 | 69 | 25% | +17.2 |
Consumer Market Score: 49 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 15,605 | 77 | 40% | +30.9 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 39,560 | 6 | 40% | +2.4 |
| Households (ACS) | 5,813 | 77 | 20% | +15.3 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 57 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 52.6 | 85 | 35% | +29.7 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 18.6 | 41 | 25% | +10.3 |
| Population (ACS) | 15,605 | 77 | 20% | +15.5 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 39,560 | 6 | 20% | +1.2 |
Market Momentum Score: 69 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 3.6 | 60 | 50% | +29.9 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 52.6 | 85 | 30% | +25.4 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 52.6 | 68 | 20% | +13.6 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (80)
By cuisine
American 14 · Mexican 8 · Pizza 7 · Sandwiches 7 · Burgers 5 · Asian 4 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 4 · Coffee 4 · Bakery 3 · Chicken / wings 3 · Chinese 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · BBQ 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Japanese 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Seafood 2 · Breakfast 1 · Dessert 1 · Greek 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 44 · Bar 18 · Quick service 12 · Casual dining 5 · Café 4 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Other 3 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Buffet 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 502 Cafe | Food truck | 1923 S 4th St | open | |
| 610 Magnolia | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern · American | 610 W Magnolia Ave | open |
| Bearno's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 1923 S 4th St | open |
| Beef 'O' Brady's | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers · Sandwiches | 3101 S 2nd St | open |
| Buffalo Wild Wings Buffalo Wild Wings | Bar · Casual dining | American | 3113 S Second Street | open |
| Burger Boy Diner Burger Boy | Casual dining | American · Burgers | 1450 S Brook St | open |
| C&L Don't Need No Sauce BBQ | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American | 2511 7th Street Rd | open |
| Cardinal Nutrition | Juice, smoothie, tea | Juice / smoothies | 2631 S 3rd St | open |
| Central Beer Depot | Bar | 1102 Central Ave | open | |
| Chick-fil-A | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2100 S Floyd St W206 | open | |
| China Inn | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 1925 S 4th St | open |
| Chinese Chef | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 2619 S 4th St | open |
| Dairy Del | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Ice cream / frozen desserts · American | 2605 7th Street Rd | open |
| Daniel’s Little Mexico 5.0 Daniel's Little Mexico2.0 | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 3101 S 2nd St | open |
| Derby Cafe | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | Coffee | 704 Central Ave | open |
| Double Dragon II | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 3135 S 2nd St | open |
| Down the Stretch Lounge | Bar | 900 Central Ave | open | |
| Einstein Bros. Bagels Einstein Bros. Bagels | Bakery | Bakery · Breakfast | 2100 S Floyd St | open |
| El Molcajete | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 2932 S 4th St | open |
| Fire Oven Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 323 W Cardinal Blvd | open |
| Francos | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | 1123 Euclid Ave | open | |
| Granville Inn | Bar | 1601 S 3rd St | open | |
| Griff's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 323 W Cardinal Blvd | open | |
| Hill Street Fish Fry | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 111 E Hill St | open |
| Home Run Burgers and Fries | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers · American | 303 W Cardinal Blvd | open |
| Insomnia Cookies Insomnia Cookies | Bakery · Dessert · Delivery-focused | Bakery · Dessert | 339 W Cardinal Blvd | open |
| J & H Sportsman Club | Bar | 1464 S 7th St | open | |
| JB's Pub | Bar | 307 Central Ave | open | |
| Jimmy John's Jimmy John's | Quick service · Specialty food shop | Sandwiches | 341 W Cardinal Blvd | open |
| John F Trompeter Co. | Dessert | 314 E Burnett Ave | open | |
| Kabuki Hibachi Truck - Winkler Ave Kabuki Food Truck Louisville | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Asian | 401 Winkler Ave | open |
| Krispy Krunchy Chicken | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 1397 2nd St | open |
| Krispy Krunchy Chicken | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 1100 Algonquin Pwky | open |
| Krispy Krunchy Chicken | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 1480 S Seventh St | open |
| La Popular La Popular | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 2521 7th Street Rd D | open |
| Las Margaritas | Bar · Fast casual | Mexican · Healthy / salads / bowls | 307 Central Ave | open |
| Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 3121 S 2nd St | open |
| Mag Bar | Bar | 1398 S 2nd St | open | |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 301 University Blvd | open |
| Millionaire's Club at Churchill Downs | Buffet | open | ||
| Moby Dick Seafood Restaurant Moby Dick House of Kabob | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood · American | 2700 S 3rd St | open |
| Mt. Fuji | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Asian | 309 W Cardinal Blvd | open |
| Noodles & Company Noodles & Company | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Noodles / ramen / pho · American | 319 W Cardinal Blvd | open |
| Old Louisville Brewery | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 625 W Magnolia Ave | open | |
| Old Louisville Tavern | Casual dining · Bar | American | 1532 S 4th St | open |
| Old Louisville Whiskey Co. | Winery / distillery / taproom | 2600 S 7th St | open | |
| Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 2336 s floyd st | open |
| Papa Murphy's | Take 'N' Bake Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 3024 South 3rd Street | open |
| Pizza Donisi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 1396 S 2nd St | open |
| Prince Hookah Lounge of Louisville | Bar | 1489 S 4th St | open | |
| Qdoba Mexican Grill Qdoba | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 1832 S 3rd St | open |
| Quiznos | Other | Sandwiches | 3173 S 2nd St | open |
| Sam's Gyros | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean · Middle Eastern · Greek | 3123 S 2nd St | open |
| Santa Fe Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 3000 S 3rd St | open |
| Señor Iguanas Restaurantes Mexicanos | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 3105 S 2nd St | open |
| Shahrazad Mediterranean Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean | 1907 S 4th St | open |
| Sharks | Quick service | 2001 7th Street Rd | open | |
| Silver Spoon II at the Kentucky Derby Museum | Café · Catering | American · Coffee | 704 Central Ave | open |
| SONIC Drive In | Quick service | 630 Winkler Ave | open | |
| Speedy Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2210 Arthur Street | open | |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 3165 S 2nd St | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 3020 S 3rd St | open |
| Subway Subway | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches | 2418 S 4th St | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 2100 S Floyd St | open |
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | Mexican | 1801 South Brook Street | open |
| Tavern Togo | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | 111 E Hill St | open | |
| The Comfy Cow | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 339 W Cardinal Blvd | open |
| The Granville Pub | Bar · Casual dining | 1601 S 3rd St | open | |
| The Service Station Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern · American | 208 E Burnett Ave | open |
| The Tavern | Bar | open | ||
| Three Brothers Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 2001 7th Street Rd | open |
| Tim Pages Cornerstone (BBQ) | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American | 2922 Taylor Blvd | open |
| Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe | Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Juice / smoothies · Sandwiches · Coffee | 305 W Cardinal Blvd | open |
| U Of L Campus | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 2236 S Floyd St | open |
| Wendy's | Quick service | 2100 S Floyd St | open | |
| White Castle White Castle | Quick service | Burgers · American | 1922 S 7th St | open |
| Wiltshire At The Speed | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2035 S 3rd St | open | |
| Xquisite Nutrition | Juice, smoothie, tea | Juice / smoothies | 2631 S 3rd St | open |
| Captainville | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 2001 7th Street Rd | closed |
| Whirlaway Tavern | Bar | 2532 S 4th St | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 28 | 23 | — | — | — | 5 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 22 | 18 | — | — | — | 4 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 18 | 13 | — | — | — | 5 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 24 | 18 | — | — | — | 6 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 24 | 17 | 3 | 13 | — | 6 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 27 | 17 | 3 | 14 | — | 8 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 27 | 16 | 4 | 12 | — | 9 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 26 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 8 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 25 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 6 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 32 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 6 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 34 | 21 | 6 | 14 | 1 | 6 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 35 | 23 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 5 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 32 | 20 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 5 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 27 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 4 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 34 | 18 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 5 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 42 | 19 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 5 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 41 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 4 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 48 | 25 | 5 | 17 | 3 | 5 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 43 | 23 | 3 | 15 | 5 | 4 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 40 | 19 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 4 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 44 | 22 | 4 | 16 | 2 | 4 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 46 | 24 | 6 | 16 | 2 | 4 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 52 | 29 | 10 | 17 | 2 | 4 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 41 | 34 | 8 | 23 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 36 | 28 | 6 | 19 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 37 | 29 | 6 | 20 | 3 | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 19 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 45 | 27 | 6 | 18 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 48 | 29 | 7 | 20 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 47 | 29 | 8 | 18 | 3 | — | NAICS2022 |