BMIE Market 53714

Dane County, Wisconsin · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	16,169 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,003 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,862 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±535 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	16,463 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,391 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$71,519 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,574 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,210 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±72 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$306,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,713 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	4.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 53714
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-28.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+25.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	14 (range 10–19) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.18) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	30 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 53714. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.18, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Wisconsin and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 685, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	67.2	67	40%	+26.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70.9	71	35%	+24.8
Market Momentum Score	30.4	30	25%	+7.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	16,169	78	40%	+31.1
Median household income (ACS)	71,519	50	40%	+19.8
Households (ACS)	7,862	81	20%	+16.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	25	67	35%	+23.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.2	87	25%	+21.9
Population (ACS)	16,169	78	20%	+15.6
Median household income (ACS)	71,519	50	20%	+9.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 30 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-28.6	9	50%	+4.6
10-year restaurant growth	25	67	30%	+20.2
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (24)

By cuisine

American 5 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Breakfast 2 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Bar 7 · Casual dining 4 · Bakery 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Asian House Asian House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1 Dempsey Rd	open
Buck & Honey's Monona	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Cafe Restaurant Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		915 Atlas Ave	open
Ccg Enterprises Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		13 Atlas Ct	open
Chief's Tavern	Bar		300 Cottage Grove Rd	open
Cottage Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	915 Atlas Ave	open
Country Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4008 Milwaukee St	open
Fair Oaks Diner	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	44 S Fair Oaks Ave	open
International Catering Collective	Restaurant (service type not stated)		709 Atlas Ave	open
Jerry's Place	Bar · Casual dining	American	601 N Fair Oaks Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	4020 Milwaukee St	open
Melted	Restaurant (service type not stated)		709 Atlas Ave	open
Michael's Frozen Custard	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · American	3826 Atwood Ave	open
North of the Bayou Restaurant and Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar	Cajun, Creole, Southern	802 Atlas Ave	open
Perkins American Food Co.	Bakery	Bakery	258 Corporate Dr Ste 205	open
Pizza Pit Pizza Pit Budgewoi	Delivery-focused	Pizza · Italian	13 Atlas Ct	open
Quick Chef Inc	Food truck · Catering · Bar		4112 Milwaukee St	open
Sala Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	36 S Fair Oaks Ave	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	4198 Nakoosa Trl	open
Sundown Saloon	Bar		57 S Stoughton Rd	open
Talula	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	802 Atlas Ave	open
The Biergarten At Olbrich Park	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		3527 Atwood Ave	open
The Tiki Bar on Lake Monona	Bar · Casual dining		3735 Monona Dr	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	4198 Nakoosa Trl	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	14	8	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1995	16	9	—	—	—	7	SIC1987
1996	16	9	—	—	—	7	SIC1987
1997	17	13	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1998	15	9	4	4	1	4	NAICS1997
1999	15	8	3	4	1	4	NAICS1997
2000	15	8	3	4	1	4	NAICS1997
2001	19	11	5	5	1	5	NAICS1997
2002	22	16	7	5	4	4	NAICS1997
2003	16	10	5	3	2	4	NAICS2002
2004	18	11	6	3	2	4	NAICS2002
2005	19	11	6	3	2	5	NAICS2002
2006	17	10	4	3	3	4	NAICS2002
2007	15	7	2	3	2	5	NAICS2002
2008	13	7	2	3	2	3	NAICS2007
2009	13	7	3	3	1	3	NAICS2007
2010	16	10	4	4	2	3	NAICS2007
2011	17	11	5	4	2	3	NAICS2007
2012	14	8	4	3	1	3	NAICS2012
2013	13	8	3	4	1	3	NAICS2012
2014	14	9	3	5	1	3	NAICS2012
2015	15	9	3	5	1	3	NAICS2012
2016	16	11	5	5	1	3	NAICS2012
2017	18	12	4	7	—	4	NAICS2017
2018	21	14	5	9	—	5	NAICS2017
2019	22	14	6	8	—	6	NAICS2017
2020	20	13	5	8	—	5	NAICS2017
2021	20	12	4	8	—	5	NAICS2017
2022	17	10	4	6	—	5	NAICS2022
2023	18	10	4	6	—	6	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 53714. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
53718	1.9 mi	14	2023
53716	2.4 mi	49	2023
53704	3.0 mi	136	2023
53703	3.6 mi	177	2023
53715	4.9 mi	50	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.