BMIE Market 53715

Dane County, Wisconsin · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	15,974 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,099 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,346 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±419 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,136 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,893 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$38,996 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,525 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	21.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±0 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,563 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±153 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$450,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±41,070 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	1.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	50 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 53715
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	30.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-2.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+2.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+31.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+47.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	57 (range 48–65) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.14) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	42 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	48 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	38 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	38 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 53715. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.14, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Wisconsin and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 685, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 42 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	48.3	48	40%	+19.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	38.0	38	35%	+13.3
Market Momentum Score	37.5	38	25%	+9.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	15,974	78	40%	+31.1
Median household income (ACS)	38,996	6	40%	+2.2
Households (ACS)	5,346	75	20%	+15.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 38 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	2.0	48	35%	+16.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	31.3	19	25%	+4.7
Population (ACS)	15,974	78	20%	+15.5
Median household income (ACS)	38,996	6	20%	+1.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 38 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-2.0	25	50%	+12.6
10-year restaurant growth	2.0	48	30%	+14.3
20-year restaurant growth	31.6	53	20%	+10.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (114)

By cuisine

Coffee 20 · Sandwiches 18 · Asian 12 · American 8 · Chinese 8 · Pizza 6 · Dessert 5 · Noodles / ramen / pho 5 · Bakery 4 · Mexican 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Italian 3 · Japanese 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Vietnamese 3 · Breakfast 2 · Burgers 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Indian 2 · Peruvian 2 · Sushi 2 · BBQ 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 50 · Bar 23 · Coffee shop 16 · Café 14 · Quick service 13 · Casual dining 10 · Other 9 · Dessert 7 · Bakery 5 · Specialty food shop 5 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Buffet 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A8 China	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	608 University Ave Ste 1036	open
Aldo's Cafe	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	330 N Orchard St	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1609 S Park St	open
Asian Noodle	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Noodles / ramen / pho	902 Regent St	open
Asian Sweet Bakery	Bakery	Bakery · Chinese · Asian	1017 S Park St	open
Barriques	Coffee shop	Coffee	961 S Park St	open
Big Red's Steak House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	610 University Ave	open
Black Rose Blending	Brewery / taproom		1602 Gilson St	open
BP - Park Street Madison Quiznos	Quick service	Sandwiches	318 S Park Street	open
Buckingham's	Bar		802 Regent St	open
Buffalo Wild Wings Buffalo Wild Wings	Bar	American	789 University Avenue University Square Commerical Condominium	open
Butterbird	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	1134 Regent St	open
Candy Cloud - Madison Candy Cloud - San Antonio	Café · Dessert	Coffee · Dessert	638 University Ave	open
Capriotti's Sandwich Shop	Other	Sandwiches	902 Regent Street	open
Caribou Coffee Caribou Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	801 Cedar Street	open
Caspian Cafe & Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)		610 University Ave	open
Church Key	Casual dining · Bar		626 University Ave	open
CoffeeBytes	Coffee shop	Coffee	799 University Ave	open
Cool Sweet Treats	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	405 S Park St	open
Cordial	Bar		516 S Park St	open
Cousins Subs	Other	Sandwiches	1221 W Johnson St	open
Cousins Subs	Other	Sandwiches	1 N Park St	open
Cousins Subs	Other	Sandwiches	1124 S Park St	open
Crave Coffee And Donuts	Coffee shop	Coffee	604 University Ave	open
Dagu Rice Noodle	Specialty food shop	Asian	604 University Ave	open
Dippin' Dots	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	702 S Randall Ave	open
Dr. Joe's Cafe	Café	Coffee	202 S Park St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	801 S Park St	open
Edo Asian cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	532 S Park St	open
El Rancho Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	819 S Park St	open
Estacion Inka	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Peruvian · Latin American (other)	616 University Ave	open
Fabiola's Spaghetti House & Deli	Quick service · Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · Sandwiches	1301 Regent St	open
Falbo Bros Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	406 S Park St	open
Famous Dave's Barbecue Famous Dave's Bar-B-Que of America	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	900 S Park St	open
Fraboni's Regent	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	822 Regent St	open
Gordon Dining and Event Center	Buffet		770 W Dayton St	open
Grace Coffee Peloton Grace Coffee Co.	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1004 S. Park Street	open
Great Taste of the Midwest	Bar		1156 Olin-Turville Ct	open
Greenbush Bar	Bar		914 Regent St	open
Harvest Grains	Other	Sandwiches	1308 W Dayton St # 178	open
Hong Kong Cafe	Café	Coffee · Chinese · Asian	2 S Mills St	open
Ichiban Sichuan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	610 S Park St	open
Indie Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	1225 Regent St	open
Inka Heritage	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Peruvian	602 S Park St	open
Jade Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1109 S Park St	open
Java Den	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1022 W Johnson St	open
Jerk Paradise	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		115 S Park St	open
Jimmy John's Jimmy John's	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	1 N Randall Ave	open
Jordan's Big Ten Pub	Bar · Casual dining		1330 Regent St	open
King Of Falafel	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	1129 S Park St	open
La Hacienda	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	515 S Park St	open
Lakeside St. Coffee House	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	402 W Lakeside St	open
Lane's Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	448 S Park St	open
Lao Szechuan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	608 University Ave	open
Library Cafe & Bar	Café · Bar	Coffee	320 N Randall Ave	open
Luthers French Quarter Cafe	Bar		1401 University Ave	open
Madison Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	785 University Ave	open
Mason Lounge	Casual dining · Bar		416 S Park St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1102 Regent St	open
Mcgillicuddy's Bar and Grill	Bar		612 University Ave	open
Milio's Sandwiches Milio's Sandwiches	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	377 E Campus Mall	open
Nam's Noodle & Karaoke Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Noodles / ramen / pho	1336 Regent St	open
Naty's Fast Food	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1616 Beld St	open
Nessalla Kombucha	Bar		1418 S Park St	open
Orient House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	626 S Park St	open
Paleo Mama Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Healthy / salads / bowls · Dessert	961 S Park St	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service	Pizza · Italian	520 S. Park St. Dane	open
Qdoba Mexican Eats	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2 N Park St	open
QQ Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1401 University Ave	open
Quiznos Quiznos	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	318 S Park Street W Washington, Vilas Ave	open
Ramen Station	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	1124 S Park St	open
Rockhound Brewing Company Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		444 S Park St	open
Rustic Tavern	Bar		516 S Park St	open
Saigon Sandwich	Food truck	Sandwiches · Vietnamese	257-299 N Charter St	open
Senjoy Chinese Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	785 University Ave	open
Sett Pub	Bar		1308 W Dayton St Rm 105	open
Sham Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1129 S Park St	open
Sista's Chicken & Fish	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	1129 S Park St	open
Smitty's Study Pub	Bar · Casual dining		601 University Ave	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	35 N Park St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1609 S Park St	open
Steenbock's On Orchard	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	330 N Orchard St	open
Stella's Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	1219 Regent St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	202 N Charter St # 204	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches	20 S. Park	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	700 S Park St, Hospital Visitors & Staff Only	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches	1 S Park St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	951 S Park St	open
Sunny Pho	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	602 S Park St	open
Sushi Express Chinese & Sushi Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	610 University Ave	open
Sweet Home Wisconsin	Casual dining · Bar		910 Regent St	open
Taj Indian Cuisine & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	444 S Park St	open
Taj Indian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	1256 S Park St	open
Taqueria Guadalajara Taqueria Guadalajara	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1033 S Park St	open
The Curve	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	653 S Park St	open
The Daily Scoop @ Union South	Dessert · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	1308 W Dayton St	open
The Double U	Bar		620 University Ave	open
The Kombucha Shop	Bar		1418 S Park St	open
The Red Zone Madison	Bar		1212 Regent St	open
Thompson Cafe Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		320 N Randall Ave	open
Toppers Pizza Toppers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1368 Regent St	open
Tricky Foods	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		121 E Lakeside St	open
Union Hideaway	Casual dining · Bar		1602 S Park St	open
Urban Slice	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1308 W Dayton St	open
Valentia Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	799 University Ave	open
Vfw 1318	Bar		133 E Lakeside St	open
Victor Allen's Coffee - St. Mary's	Coffee shop	Coffee	707 South Mills Street	open
Village Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	616 University Ave	open
Wando's	Bar · Casual dining	American	602 University Ave	open
Wingstop Wingstop	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	1234 Regent St	open
Yummy Noodle	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Noodles / ramen / pho	604 University Ave	open
ZuZu Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	1336 Drake St	open
Funk Factory Geuzeria	Brewery / taproom		1602 Gilson St	closed
Sett Recreation	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1308 W Dayton St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	41	34	—	—	—	7	SIC1987
1995	38	32	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1996	41	34	—	—	—	7	SIC1987
1997	46	37	—	—	—	9	SIC1987
1998	46	35	15	19	1	9	NAICS1997
1999	48	36	15	19	2	9	NAICS1997
2000	46	35	18	15	2	8	NAICS1997
2001	46	35	18	15	1	8	NAICS1997
2002	50	38	17	18	1	10	NAICS1997
2003	52	38	19	16	2	10	NAICS2002
2004	50	36	14	15	6	10	NAICS2002
2005	46	34	13	15	5	9	NAICS2002
2006	46	34	13	16	4	9	NAICS2002
2007	42	33	13	13	6	7	NAICS2002
2008	42	32	11	14	6	7	NAICS2007
2009	44	34	11	14	8	8	NAICS2007
2010	48	37	13	16	8	9	NAICS2007
2011	50	39	14	17	8	9	NAICS2007
2012	58	46	17	21	7	9	NAICS2012
2013	60	49	22	20	6	8	NAICS2012
2014	57	44	18	19	6	9	NAICS2012
2015	58	46	19	20	6	10	NAICS2012
2016	68	57	27	23	5	10	NAICS2012
2017	69	59	25	26	5	8	NAICS2017
2018	60	51	20	23	6	7	NAICS2017
2019	62	51	20	24	5	7	NAICS2017
2020	62	53	18	27	6	7	NAICS2017
2021	65	55	19	28	7	6	NAICS2017
2022	63	54	19	29	5	5	NAICS2022
2023	61	50	20	24	5	6	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 53715. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
53713	1.3 mi	33	2023
53703	1.7 mi	177	2023
53706	1.7 mi	1	2016
53726	2.0 mi	3	2023
53792	2.6 mi	1	2000
53711	3.2 mi	68	2023
53716	3.7 mi	49	2023
53705	3.9 mi	52	2023
53714	4.9 mi	10	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.