BMIE Market 02458

Middlesex County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,050 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,030 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,149 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±394 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,131 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,341 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$153,520 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,726 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,154 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±165 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,136,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±53,125 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	2.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	26 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 02458
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	17.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+8.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+30.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+2,500.0% DERIVED: 1997 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	26 (range 20–33) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.13) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	47 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 02458. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.13, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83.4	83	40%	+33.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62.0	62	35%	+21.7
Market Momentum Score	47.0	47	25%	+11.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,050	75	40%	+29.8
Median household income (ACS)	153,520	97	40%	+38.6
Households (ACS)	5,149	75	20%	+14.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	8.3	53	35%	+18.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	19.9	37	25%	+9.4
Population (ACS)	13,050	75	20%	+14.9
Median household income (ACS)	153,520	97	20%	+19.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	8.3	53	30%	+15.8
20-year restaurant growth	30	52	20%	+10.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (59)

By cuisine

Bakery 9 · Dessert 7 · Italian 7 · Coffee 6 · Pizza 6 · Sandwiches 6 · American 4 · Seafood 3 · Asian 2 · Breakfast 2 · British / Irish pub food 2 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · Japanese 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · European 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1 · Vegan 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 37 · Bakery 9 · Dessert 7 · Bar 5 · Quick service 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Specialty food shop 4 · Café 3 · Casual dining 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
90+ Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		300 Washington St # 451	open
Antoine's Pastry Shop	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	317 Watertown St	open
Barstool Bites	Restaurant (service type not stated)		275 Centre St	open
Bertucci's Italian Restaurant Bertucci's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	275 Centre St	open
Buff's Pub	Bar · Casual dining		317 Washington St	open
C & N Pizza and Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	437 Centre St	open
Cafe Martin West Street	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	7 West St	open
Chung-Shin Yuan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	183 California St	open
D and A House of Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	308 Watertown St	open
DePasquale's	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Italian	241 Adams St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert · Bakery	345 Washington St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert · Bakery	401 Watertown St	open
Eddie's Breakfast & Lunch	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Breakfast · Sandwiches	394 Watertown St	open
Fiouna Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	367 California St	open
Flourhouse Bakery and Sandwiches	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Breakfast · Bakery · Sandwiches	140R Adams St	open
Foodgod Truffle Fries	Restaurant (service type not stated)		275 Centre St	open
Ginger Root Chinese Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	136 Adams St	open
Guiseppe's Sub Shop	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Italian	309 Watertown St	open
Guy Fieri's Flavortown Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	275 Centre St	open
Hearty Teriyaki Newton	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	67 Crafts St	open
Hopster's	Brewery / taproom		292 Centre St	open
Knowfat Franchise Company, Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		255 Washington St Ste 150	open
KoKo Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	232L California Street	open
Larray's Loaded Mac	Restaurant (service type not stated)		275 Centre St	open
Max and Leo's Pizza Max and Leo's Pizza Newton	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	325 Washington St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	197 California St	open
Moldova Restaurant And Café	Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European	344 Watertown St	open
Nascar Refuel	Restaurant (service type not stated)		275 Centre St	open
Newton Corner Restaurant Concepts	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	320 Washington St	open
Nonantum Press Room	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	191 Adams St	open
Ocmp - Off-campus Meal Plan	Restaurant (service type not stated)		132 Adams St Ste 2	open
Olivia's Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	136 Adams St	open
Papa Gino's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	191 Watertown St	open
Pátzcuaro Taqueria & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	398 Watertown St	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	275 Centre Street, Jefferson Street	open
Prana Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegan	292 Centre St	open
Prelude Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	140R Adams St	open
Sakanaya Boston	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Seafood	233 California St	open
Shaking Crab Shaking Crab	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern	203 Adams St	open
Social Restaurant & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		320 Washington St	open
Souper Salad	Restaurant (service type not stated)		63 Chapel St	open
Spindrift Sparkling Water	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	55 Chapel St	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	259 Centre St	open
Steamers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	311 Watertown St	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches	275 Centre St	open
Sweet Rossella Bakery	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Dessert	8 Vernon St	open
Thai Amarin	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	287 Centre St	open
The Dooliner Irish Pub and Restaurant	Bar	British / Irish pub food	7 West St	open
The Icing On The Cake The Icing On The Cake	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	230 Adams St	open
The Landing Pizza & Kitchen - L'Approdo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	223 Adams St	open
Tommy Doyle's	Bar	British / Irish pub food	349 Watertown St #1329	open
Tortissima	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	86 Waban Park	open
Vape Daddy's	Bar		376B	open
Village Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee · American	719 Washington St	open
Virtuous Teas	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	612 Washington St	open
West Street Grill & Tap	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7 West St	open
WFM Coffee Bar	Coffee shop	Coffee	647 Washington St	open
Wy Seafood Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		203 Adams St	open
Francesca Pizzeria Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	203 Adams St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1997	2	1	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	18	16	10	5	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	21	19	11	6	2	2	NAICS1997
2000	22	20	11	6	3	2	NAICS1997
2001	24	22	12	8	2	1	NAICS1997
2002	21	19	11	5	2	1	NAICS1997
2003	20	20	9	8	3	—	NAICS2002
2004	23	22	12	8	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	27	25	12	8	5	—	NAICS2002
2006	27	25	12	9	4	—	NAICS2002
2007	28	26	11	9	6	—	NAICS2002
2008	26	24	13	6	5	—	NAICS2007
2009	27	22	11	5	6	2	NAICS2007
2010	24	21	12	5	4	—	NAICS2007
2011	26	23	12	6	5	—	NAICS2007
2012	28	23	12	7	4	—	NAICS2012
2013	29	24	12	9	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	27	22	10	9	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	24	19	9	7	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	23	19	11	5	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	29	26	15	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	29	26	15	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	33	29	14	12	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	27	24	12	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	25	21	9	7	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	29	24	11	6	7	—	NAICS2022
2023	31	26	13	5	8	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 02458. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
02460	1.0 mi	19	2023
02472	1.2 mi	98	2023
02135	1.8 mi	88	2023
02465	2.0 mi	17	2023
02461	2.7 mi	15	2023
02459	2.7 mi	52	2023
02468	2.8 mi	3	2023
02453	2.9 mi	69	2023
02478	2.9 mi	52	2023
02134	3.0 mi	118	2023
02466	3.1 mi	7	2023
02464	3.2 mi	20	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.