BMIE Market 02465

Middlesex County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,697 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±794 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,412 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±385 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,710 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,520 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$194,265 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±28,353 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,270 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±269 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,159,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±79,598 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	2.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 02465
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-5.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+6.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+70.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+325.0% DERIVED: 1998 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	19 (range 16–22) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.04) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	41 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 02465. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.04, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83.2	83	40%	+33.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65.8	66	35%	+23.0
Market Momentum Score	41.2	41	25%	+10.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,697	73	40%	+29.2
Median household income (ACS)	194,265	99	40%	+39.5
Households (ACS)	4,412	72	20%	+14.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	6.3	51	35%	+17.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.5	55	25%	+13.6
Population (ACS)	11,697	73	20%	+14.6
Median household income (ACS)	194,265	99	20%	+19.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-5.6	22	50%	+11.1
10-year restaurant growth	6.3	51	30%	+15.2
20-year restaurant growth	70	75	20%	+14.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (32)

By cuisine

Coffee 5 · American 3 · Bakery 3 · Asian 2 · Chinese 2 · Dessert 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · BBQ 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · European 1 · French 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Japanese 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Bar 9 · Bakery 4 · Casual dining 4 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 2 · Quick service 2 · Buffet 1 · Catering 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Blue Ribbon BBQ Blue Ribbon BBQ	Catering	BBQ · American	1375 Washington St	open
Blue Salt Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · European	1255 Washington St	open
China Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Chinese · Asian	115 Elm St	open
Coney Island	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	1284 Washington St	open
Country Desserts Bake Shop	Bakery	Bakery	60 Lexington St	open
Depasquale's At Night Caps Corner	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Italian	339 River St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	1250 Washington St	open
Espresso Express	Coffee shop	Coffee	25 Dunstan St	open
Flora's Hospitality, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1284 Washington St	open
Hanna Gakob Inc. Pizza Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)		69 River St	open
Hilliards Chocolates	Dessert	Dessert	1 Chestnut St	open
Judith's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	1371 Washington St	open
Kaffestugan	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	206 Waltham St	open
Keltic Krust Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	1371 Washington St	open
L'aroma Cafe & Bakery	Café	Coffee	15 Spencer St	open
Lumiere Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French	1293 Washington Street	open
Moments Cafe	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1284 Washington St	open
Newton-Wellesley Hospital Cafeteria	Buffet		2014 Washington Street, Newton, MA 02462, United States	open
Ninebark	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · American · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1391 Washington St	open
Paddy's Public House	Bar · Casual dining	British / Irish pub food	95 Elm St	open
Shing Yee Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1255 Washington St	open
Shogun	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	1385 Washington St	open
Sweet Tomatoes Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1279 Washington St	open
The Bluebird Bar	Bar		1293 Washington St	open
The Cherry Tree	Casual dining · Bar	American	1349 Washington St	open
The Local Newton	Casual dining · Bar		1391 Washington St	open
The Neighborhood Club	Bar		24 Berkeley St	open
The Wine Slushie Guy	Bar		525 Waltham St	open
vinodivino Newton	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		104 Temple St	open
Wellesley Restaurant Group Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1391 Washington St	open
West Newton Pizza & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza	1288 Washington St	open
Zheng Garden Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Seafood	1351 Washington St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1998	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	7	7	6	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	13	13	7	4	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	12	12	8	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	10	10	7	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	11	9	5	2	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	15	14	8	3	3	—	NAICS2002
2006	13	11	6	—	5	—	NAICS2002
2007	15	15	10	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	16	14	8	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	17	14	8	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	22	19	9	8	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	21	17	8	8	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	17	15	10	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	18	16	10	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	19	17	9	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	21	18	10	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	21	19	11	5	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	20	18	8	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	21	18	8	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	22	19	9	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	18	15	7	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	21	19	8	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	21	19	9	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	19	17	6	8	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 02465. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
02460	1.0 mi	19	2023
02466	1.1 mi	7	2023
02468	1.4 mi	3	2023
02453	1.5 mi	69	2023
02462	1.9 mi	3	2023
02458	2.0 mi	26	2023
02461	2.5 mi	15	2023
02464	2.6 mi	20	2023
02472	2.9 mi	98	2023
02459	3.0 mi	52	2023
02452	3.2 mi	36	2023
02494	3.5 mi	17	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.