BMIE Market 02461

Middlesex County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,975 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±892 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,630 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±241 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,059 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,771 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$224,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±42,340 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,978 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±841 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,255,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±100,598 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	1.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 02461
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	28.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-31.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+7.1% DERIVED: 1998 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 13–22) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.15) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	51 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	47 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	11 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 02461. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.15, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	78.9	79	40%	+31.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	46.7	47	35%	+16.3
Market Momentum Score	11.3	11	25%	+2.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,975	65	40%	+26.2
Median household income (ACS)	224,000	99	40%	+39.7
Households (ACS)	2,630	65	20%	+13.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	35%	+5.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	21.5	34	25%	+8.4
Population (ACS)	6,975	65	20%	+13.1
Median household income (ACS)	224,000	99	20%	+19.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 11 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-31.8	9	50%	+4.4
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	30%	+4.5
20-year restaurant growth	-25	12	20%	+2.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (45)

By cuisine

American 7 · Coffee 5 · Dessert 5 · Asian 4 · Bakery 3 · Japanese 3 · Pizza 3 · Sushi 3 · French 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Vegan 2 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Indian 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Mexican 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 29 · Quick service 6 · Bakery 5 · Casual dining 5 · Coffee shop 5 · Dessert 5 · Bar 3 · Café 1 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
4 Corners Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1140 Beacon St	open
57 Lincoln Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	57 Lincoln St	open
Anna's Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	27 Lincoln St	open
Avenue Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1134 Beacon St	open
Baker's Best	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Bakery	27 Lincon Street	open
Be Good Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Burgers	71 Needham St	open
Beatitudes Services Group Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1203 Walnut St	open
Blue Ribbon Barbecue	Restaurant (service type not stated)		45 Kenneth St	open
Boston Vegan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegan	1136 Beacon St	open
Buttonwood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	51 Lincoln St	open
cacao	Dessert	Dessert	23 Lincoln St	open
Caprese Cafe & Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1134 Beacon St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	940 Boylston St	open
Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	1203 Walnut St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	1148 Beacon St	open
Edible Arrangements	Dessert	Dessert	1136 Beacon St	open
Farm Grill and Rotisserie	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	40 Needham St	open
Fleck	Coffee shop	Coffee	1169 Walnut Street	open
Grape Leaf Mediterranean Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mediterranean · American	6 Lincoln St	open
Green Globe Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1203 Walnut St	open
Happy Mom's Kitchen	Catering · Delivery-focused	Indian	1203 Walnut St	open
IQ KITCHEN八方四面	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	1158 Beacon St	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	55 Needham Street	open
Khan's Ravioli Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1134 Beacon St	open
Lakon Paris Patisserie	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · French · Dessert	1169 Walnut St	open
Language In Motion, Inc.-sba Small 7a Term	Restaurant (service type not stated)		991 Boylston St	open
Le Soir	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · French	51 Lincoln St	open
Manow Thai Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	1138 Beacon St	open
Newton Pizza House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	57 Lincoln St 57	open
O'Hara's Food & Spirits O'Hara's Food & Spirits	Casual dining · Bar	American	1185 Walnut St	open
Otake Sushi Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	15 Lincoln St	open
Our Soldiers Speak, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1150 Walnut St	open
QDOBA Mexican Eats	Quick service		165 Needham St Ste N211	open
Red Sauce	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1114 Beacon St	open
Renula's Greek Kitchen, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6 Lincoln St	open
Rox Diner - Newton	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	4 Hartford St	open
Sichuan Gourmet House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1203 Walnut St	open
Skipjack's Best Fresh Seafood	Bar		55 Needham St	open
Sushi To Go	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	1138 Beacon St	open
Takara Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	1180 Walnut St	open
The Broken Grounds Cafe	Coffee shop	Coffee	1182 Walnut St	open
The Halal Guys The Halal Guys	Quick service		55 Needham Street	open
Walnut Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegan	1203 Walnut St	open
Walton Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		51 Lincoln St	open
The Dining Car Café And Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4 Hartford St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1998	14	14	5	7	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	17	17	9	6	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	16	16	6	8	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	19	19	8	8	3	—	NAICS1997
2002	22	21	12	4	5	—	NAICS1997
2003	21	20	12	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	23	22	12	8	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	24	23	11	8	4	—	NAICS2002
2006	24	23	9	9	5	—	NAICS2002
2007	22	20	8	8	4	—	NAICS2002
2008	20	18	8	6	4	—	NAICS2007
2009	19	17	8	5	4	—	NAICS2007
2010	22	20	11	4	4	—	NAICS2007
2011	22	21	12	5	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	18	17	8	7	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	19	18	9	7	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	22	20	8	10	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	21	19	7	9	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	22	20	7	9	4	—	NAICS2012
2017	24	20	8	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	26	22	10	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	25	21	10	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	24	20	11	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	22	20	10	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	18	16	10	3	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	15	9	3	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 02461. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
02464	0.7 mi	20	2023
02459	0.8 mi	52	2023
02468	1.5 mi	3	2023
02494	1.8 mi	17	2023
02460	2.4 mi	19	2023
02465	2.5 mi	17	2023
02458	2.7 mi	26	2023
02462	2.7 mi	3	2023
02467	2.8 mi	29	2023
02466	2.9 mi	7	2023
02492	3.4 mi	41	2023
02135	3.5 mi	88	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.