BMIE Market 23509

Norfolk city, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,105 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±971 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,360 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±422 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,817 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,459 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$72,816 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,021 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,326 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±143 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$258,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,819 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	2.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 23509
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-29.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-29.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 9–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.30) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	47 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	47 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	16 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 23509. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.30, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	65.5	65	40%	+26.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	47.3	47	35%	+16.6
Market Momentum Score	16.5	16	25%	+4.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,105	75	40%	+29.8
Median household income (ACS)	72,816	52	40%	+20.6
Households (ACS)	5,360	75	20%	+15.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	35%	+3.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.2	75	25%	+18.9
Population (ACS)	13,105	75	20%	+14.9
Median household income (ACS)	72,816	52	20%	+10.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 16 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-29.4	9	50%	+4.6
10-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	30%	+2.8
20-year restaurant growth	20	46	20%	+9.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (26)

By cuisine

Seafood 5 · American 4 · BBQ 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Chicken / wings 3 · Chinese 3 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Caribbean 1 · Dessert 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Quick service 4 · Bar 2 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Casual dining 1 · Catering 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Adam And Eve's House Of Ribs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	1905 Shoop Ave	open
Cajun Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern	3615 Tidewater Dr	open
Chen's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3538 Tidewater Dr	open
Crazy Wings	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	3036 Ballentine Blvd	open
Feather-N-Fin Chicken & Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	3601 Tidewater Dr	open
Filipino Dish 757	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		Argonne Ave	open
Ft. Henry	Bar		6435 Tidewater Dr	open
Golden City Iii	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	3615 Tidewater Dr	open
Golden Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5401 Tidewater Dr	open
Jody's Popcorn, Confection and Gifts	Dessert		2842 Cromwell Rd	open
Kirbbq	Catering	BBQ		open
La Yaroa Tropical Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean · Latin American (other)		open
Lindy's Famous Hotdogs	Quick service	Hot dogs · Sandwiches	6586 Tidewater Dr	open
Lou’s Barbeque	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	3212 Bapaume Ave	open
Manny's Burger	Quick service	Burgers · American	2912 Lafayette Blvd	open
Miller's Backwater Pub Miller's Pub	Bar			open
Naas Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	3527 Tidewater Dr	open
Ole Bay Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1914 Lafayette Blvd	open
Our Peoples Soulful Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · Seafood	1903 Shoop Ave	open
Pollard's Chicken & Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	3033 Ballentine Blvd	open
Richs Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Seafood	6586 Tidewater Dr	open
Smackz	Food truck		3119 Lyons Ave	open
Some Da Eat	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	6586 Tidewater Dr	open
Sun Wah	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	3535 Tidewater Dr	open
T's Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	3200 Tait Terrace	open
Tony's Diner	Casual dining	American	3200 Tidewater Dr	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	17	17	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	17	16	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	17	16	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	15	14	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	11	10	4	6	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	12	11	4	7	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	13	12	5	7	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	15	15	6	7	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	9	8	2	6	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	10	10	2	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	11	11	3	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	9	9	2	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	7	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	8	8	2	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	12	12	5	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	13	4	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	18	18	6	12	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	15	15	4	11	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	14	4	10	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	16	16	4	12	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	17	17	5	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	17	17	6	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	16	5	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	16	6	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	16	6	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	13	5	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 23509. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
23513	1.5 mi	24	2023
23504	1.7 mi	12	2023
23517	1.8 mi	91	2023
23507	2.5 mi	8	2023
23508	2.6 mi	41	2023
23510	2.6 mi	90	2023
23505	2.9 mi	59	2023
23551	3.3 mi	1	2013
23708	3.3 mi	4	2023
23523	3.5 mi	5	2023
23518	3.6 mi	67	2023
23502	3.6 mi	91	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.