BMIE Market 23507

Norfolk city, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,645 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±580 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,336 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±306 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	25,818 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,535 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$104,295 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,417 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	34.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,498 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±120 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$555,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±54,839 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	0.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 23507
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-11.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+14.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 7–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.08) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	35 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 23507. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.08, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	73.0	73	40%	+29.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66.0	66	35%	+23.1
Market Momentum Score	34.7	35	25%	+8.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,645	65	40%	+25.9
Median household income (ACS)	104,295	84	40%	+33.4
Households (ACS)	3,336	68	20%	+13.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	14.3	58	35%	+20.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.0	64	25%	+16.1
Population (ACS)	6,645	65	20%	+13.0
Median household income (ACS)	104,295	84	20%	+16.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 35 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	50%	+8.9
10-year restaurant growth	14.3	58	30%	+17.4
20-year restaurant growth	14.3	42	20%	+8.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (21)

By cuisine

Coffee 4 · American 2 · Pizza 2 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Greek 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Bar 6 · Coffee shop 4 · Café 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Casual dining 2 · Bakery 1 · Buffet 1 · Dessert 1 · Quick service 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
508 Crafthouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)		508 Orapax St	open
Benchtop Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		1129 Boissevain Ave	open
Creative Catering of Virginia	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1300 Redgate Ave	open
Dave's House of Beans	Café · Coffee shop	American · Coffee	1300 Mallory Ct	open
Espressoasis	Coffee shop	Coffee	600 Gresham Dr	open
Ghost Kitchen Norfolk	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1309 Raleigh Ave	open
Grandiflora Wine Garden	Bar		1231 Boissevain Ave	open
KD Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	601 Childrens Ln	open
Newby Hotel Property Group	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1112 Colley Ave	open
Orapax Restaurant and Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Pizza · Mediterranean	1300 Redgate Ave	open
Press 626 Wine Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		626 W Olney Rd	open
Reverend Spirits	Winery / distillery / taproom		1120 W Olney Rd	open
Sentara Norfolk General Hospital Cafeteria	Buffet		600 Gresham Dr	open
Smartmouth Brewing Co.	Brewery / taproom		1309 Raleigh Ave	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	600 Gresham Drive Main Entrance Dining	open
The Bakehouse at Chelsea	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Pizza · Dessert	1233 W Olney Rd	open
The Birch	Bar · Casual dining		1231 W Olney Rd	open
The Winehouse Bar and Bistro	Bar		626 W Olney Rd	open
Torch Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	601 Orapax St	open
TWest	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	508 Orapax St	open
Vessel Craft Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1229 W Olney Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	10	6	4	1	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	9	6	3	1	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	10	6	3	1	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	12	6	3	1	2	1	NAICS1997
2002	15	7	4	1	2	1	NAICS1997
2003	14	7	4	1	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	13	8	4	2	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	13	8	5	1	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	10	7	4	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	11	7	2	1	4	—	NAICS2002
2008	13	8	3	1	4	1	NAICS2007
2009	14	8	2	2	4	1	NAICS2007
2010	14	8	2	2	4	1	NAICS2007
2011	16	8	2	2	4	1	NAICS2007
2012	14	8	2	2	4	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	7	2	2	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	13	8	3	2	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	8	3	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	13	8	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	9	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	9	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	8	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	7	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 23507. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
23517	0.7 mi	91	2023
23510	1.1 mi	90	2023
23708	1.2 mi	4	2023
23508	1.5 mi	41	2023
23504	2.1 mi	12	2023
23509	2.5 mi	12	2023
23707	2.6 mi	25	2023
23704	2.7 mi	39	2023
23523	2.8 mi	5	2023
23709	3.3 mi	1	2006
23505	3.3 mi	59	2023
23513	4.0 mi	24	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.