BMIE Market 23511

Norfolk city, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,664 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±718 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	309 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±105 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,457 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	141 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$62,946 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±27,389 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	22.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±0 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,154 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±161 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	Data source not yet connected
Land area	5.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 23511
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	85.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-5.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-23.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+128.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+433.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 8–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.6 per year, r² 0.60) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	40 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	48 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	37 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	32 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 23511. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.60, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	47.9	48	40%	+19.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	37.3	37	35%	+13.1
Market Momentum Score	32.1	32	25%	+8.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,664	70	40%	+28.1
Median household income (ACS)	62,946	35	40%	+14.1
Households (ACS)	309	28	20%	+5.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 37 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-23.8	13	35%	+4.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.6	47	25%	+11.8
Population (ACS)	9,664	70	20%	+14.1
Median household income (ACS)	62,946	35	20%	+7.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 32 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-5.9	22	50%	+11.0
10-year restaurant growth	-23.8	13	30%	+3.8
20-year restaurant growth	128.6	87	20%	+17.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (24)

By cuisine

Burgers 5 · Coffee 5 · American 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Chicken / wings 2 · Chinese 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Mexican 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1

By type

Quick service 16 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Coffee shop 4 · Bar 3 · Café 3 · Specialty food shop 2 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Fast casual 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Auntie Anne's Auntie Anne's	Bakery · Quick service	Bakery	1580 Mall Dr	open
Bellissimo Espresso Café	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	9475 Bacon Ave	open
Blimpie Blimpie America's Sub Shop	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	1983 H St Bldg W313	open
Bojangles' Bojangles	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	1560 Mall Dr	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1560 Mall Drive	open
Chili's Grill & Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	9226 Mall Drive	open
Firehouse Subs Nexcom Firehouse Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1560 Mall Dr	open
Five Guys	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1731 Gilbert St Bldg C9	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	105th St (Naval Station)	open
McDonald's	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Coffee · Burgers	105th St (Naval Station)	open
MOD Pizza MOD Pizza	Fast casual · Quick service	Pizza · Healthy / salads / bowls	1560 Mall Dr CD-13	open
Nrgize NrGize Lifestyle Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	1983 H St Bldg W313	open
Panda Express	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	1560 Mall Drive	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	Naval Station - Pier 12, 9700 N. Rodgers Road Norfolk Norfolk Naval Station - Pier 12	open
QDOBA Mexican Eats	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1731 Gilbert St, Bldg C-9	open
Raising Cane's Chicken Fingers Raising Cane's Chicken Fingers	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	13 Food Court, 1560 Mall Drive Naval Station Bldg. CD, Vendor #3	open
Sbarro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chinese	1560 Mall Dr	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	1560 Mall Dr	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	440 Aircraft Tow Way, Bldg V55	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	Building C9, Gilbert Street	open
Thimble Shoals Pub	Bar		1741 Dillingham Blvd	open
Tim Hortons	Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	9230 7th Ave, Building Sp-28	open
Uso	Bar		Norfolk Amc Terminal	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	9400 Decatur Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	3	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	4	2	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	15	6	1	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	16	7	1	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	20	10	1	8	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	24	14	2	11	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	26	13	2	10	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	27	22	2	18	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	25	22	2	18	2	1	NAICS2007
2009	23	20	1	16	3	1	NAICS2007
2010	24	21	1	17	3	1	NAICS2007
2011	23	20	1	15	4	1	NAICS2007
2012	22	20	3	15	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	23	21	2	16	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	24	22	2	18	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	24	22	2	18	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	19	17	2	15	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	18	16	—	14	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	18	17	—	15	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	19	18	—	16	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	15	—	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	15	—	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	19	17	—	14	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	16	—	13	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 23511. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
23551	1.3 mi	1	2013
23505	1.8 mi	59	2023
23503	2.5 mi	30	2023
23508	3.6 mi	41	2023
23651	4.5 mi	3	2023
23509	4.5 mi	12	2023
23703	4.7 mi	16	2023
23517	4.8 mi	91	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.