BMIE Market 45404

Montgomery County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,826 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,251 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,280 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±356 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,833 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,263 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$38,874 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,421 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$884 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±57 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$86,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,626 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	7.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 45404
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+6.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+13.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-39.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 16–20) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.54) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	48 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	45 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	46 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	54 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 45404. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.54, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	44.8	45	40%	+17.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	46.4	46	35%	+16.2
Market Momentum Score	54.1	54	25%	+13.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,826	71	40%	+28.2
Median household income (ACS)	38,874	5	40%	+2.2
Households (ACS)	4,280	72	20%	+14.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	13.3	57	35%	+20.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	17.3	45	25%	+11.2
Population (ACS)	9,826	71	20%	+14.1
Median household income (ACS)	38,874	5	20%	+1.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	6.3	63	50%	+31.5
10-year restaurant growth	13.3	57	30%	+17.1
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (41)

By cuisine

Mexican 8 · American 6 · Bakery 5 · Latin American (other) 4 · Burgers 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Breakfast 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Dessert 2 · German / Eastern European 2 · Pizza 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Asian 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Halal / kosher 1 · Italian 1 · Middle Eastern 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 21 · Bar 8 · Quick service 8 · Bakery 6 · Casual dining 6 · Catering 2 · Dessert 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
201 Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	American	201 Brandt St	open
4front Imports	Winery / distillery / taproom		1749 Stanley Ave	open
5 Frenchies Old North Dayton Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	700 Troy St	open
Agnes All Natural Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	1438 N Keowee St	open
Amber Rose Restaurant & Catering	Catering · Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European	1400 Valley St	open
Baker Benji's	Bakery	Bakery	700 Troy St	open
Burger King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1401 N Keowee St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	4382 Brandt Pike	open
Burrito King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	2307 Valley St	open
Burrito King Riverside Ohio	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2307 Valley Pike St	open
Charlie's Deli and Catering	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Catering	Sandwiches	429 Troy St	open
Christy Club	Bar · Casual dining		2623 Valley Pike	open
Cracker Barrel Country Store & Restaurant Cracker Barrel Old Country Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)		I-75	open
Debbie's Restaurant	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	2620 Valley Pike	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	1450 Kuntz Road	open
Double Deuce	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		17 Brandt St	open
Dragon City	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1601 N Keowee St	open
Frank's Tavern and Bar	Casual dining · Bar		1669 Webster St	open
Gold Star Chili	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · American	1538 N Keowee St	open
Hostess Cakes	Bakery	Bakery	1306 Brandt Pike	open
Jay and Jeans Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		1124 Leo St	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	3131 Valley Pike	open
La Michoacana Mexican Market #5	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	748 Troy St	open
Lee's Famous Recipe Chicken Lee's Famous Recipe Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · American	1415 Troy St	open
Legacy Pancake House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	1510 N Keowee St	open
Lov's Whiskey Barrel Saloon	Bar		939 N Keowee St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1517 N Keowee St	open
Ohio Chiefs Bar & Lounge	Bar · Casual dining		1124 Leo St	open
Old Dayton Pizza at Riverside Hideaway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3490 Old Troy Pike	open
Osaka Japanese Steak House	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8120 Old Troy Pike	open
Panaderia El Ranchito	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery · Mexican	2528 Valley St	open
Polish Club	Bar		1470 Valley St	open
Salsas Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	425 N Findlay St	open
Schwebel's Schwebel's Bakery Outlet Stores	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1306 Brandt Pike	open
Submarine House	Other	Sandwiches	940 Troy St	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	1414 N. Keowee Street	open
Taqueria Los Cabos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	210 Troy St	open
Taquitos Uruapan USA	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1002 Troy St	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	1975 Harshman Road	open
U.S. International Foods	Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European · Middle Eastern · Halal / kosher	2106 Old Troy Pike	open
Victor's Taco Shop Victors taco shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1438 N Keowee St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	37	28	—	—	—	9	SIC1987
1995	35	27	—	—	—	8	SIC1987
1996	35	23	—	—	—	12	SIC1987
1997	34	25	—	—	—	9	SIC1987
1998	33	21	8	12	—	9	NAICS1997
1999	31	21	4	16	—	7	NAICS1997
2000	33	22	5	16	1	8	NAICS1997
2001	30	19	5	14	—	8	NAICS1997
2002	28	18	5	12	1	8	NAICS1997
2003	26	17	5	12	—	8	NAICS2002
2004	23	16	5	10	1	7	NAICS2002
2005	23	17	6	10	1	6	NAICS2002
2006	24	19	8	10	1	5	NAICS2002
2007	24	17	6	11	—	6	NAICS2002
2008	23	15	4	11	—	6	NAICS2007
2009	21	13	4	9	—	6	NAICS2007
2010	21	14	4	9	1	5	NAICS2007
2011	20	13	4	8	1	5	NAICS2007
2012	19	14	5	8	1	4	NAICS2012
2013	20	15	5	9	1	4	NAICS2012
2014	21	16	6	9	1	4	NAICS2012
2015	21	15	5	9	1	4	NAICS2012
2016	21	15	6	9	—	4	NAICS2012
2017	21	17	7	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	21	16	6	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	20	16	5	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	21	17	7	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	21	16	6	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	20	18	4	14	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	20	17	4	12	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 45404. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
45403	1.7 mi	13	2023
45423	2.8 mi	1	2016
45410	2.8 mi	21	2023
45405	3.4 mi	15	2023
45402	3.5 mi	54	2023
45469	3.6 mi	1	1994
45431	4.0 mi	83	2023
45414	4.7 mi	60	2023
45406	4.8 mi	16	2023
45435	4.8 mi	2	1997
45432	4.9 mi	29	2023
45420	5.0 mi	33	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.