BMIE Market 45405

Montgomery County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	18,955 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,532 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,903 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±691 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	18,948 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	11,797 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$43,973 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,103 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$934 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±64 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$84,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,893 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	4.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 45405
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-11.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-11.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-44.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-42.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 9–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.47) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	40 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	52 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	44 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	15 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 45405. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.47, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	52.4	52	40%	+21.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	44.1	44	35%	+15.4
Market Momentum Score	15.2	15	25%	+3.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	18,955	81	40%	+32.2
Median household income (ACS)	43,973	9	40%	+3.5
Households (ACS)	8,903	83	20%	+16.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-11.8	17	35%	+6.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.9	81	25%	+20.2
Population (ACS)	18,955	81	20%	+16.1
Median household income (ACS)	43,973	9	20%	+1.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 15 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-11.8	17	50%	+8.7
10-year restaurant growth	-11.8	17	30%	+5.2
20-year restaurant growth	-44.4	7	20%	+1.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (39)

By cuisine

American 8 · Pizza 8 · Chicken / wings 6 · Coffee 4 · Asian 2 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · Dessert 2 · Italian 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Seafood 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 22 · Quick service 10 · Bar 5 · Coffee shop 3 · Bakery 2 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Café 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Antonio Copher	Coffee shop	Coffee	61 E Beechwood Ave	open
Art Ball	Restaurant (service type not stated)		456 Belmonte Park N	open
Benjamin's the Burger Master	Quick service	Burgers · American	1000 N Main St	open
Cassano's Pizza Cassano's San Clemente, CA	Quick service	Pizza · American	4593 N Main St	open
Cassano's Pizza King Cassanos Pizza King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	4029 N Main St	open
China Cottage	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	784 N Main St	open
Cindy Lu's Plantastic Foods	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	2900 Philadelphia Dr	open
Cousin Vinny's Pizza Cousin Vinny's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · American	3275 W Siebenthaler Ave	open
Dayton Cash Register	Restaurant (service type not stated)		912 N Main St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	1800 N Main Street	open
Donatos Five Oaks	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1805 N Main St	open
Dunkin' Donuts Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	4705 N Main St	open
El Amanecer Bar & Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		3501 N Main St	open
Grandma's II Restaurant	Casual dining	American	1610 N Main St	open
Ida's Classic Confections	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	227 W McPherson St	open
JJ Fish and Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Seafood	4633 N Main St	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	4645 N. Main Street	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	3613 N. Main St	open
Labsnet Security Systems	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4405 N Main St	open
Lee's Famous Recipe Chicken Lee's Famous Recipe Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · American	4140 N Main St	open
Leo Bistro	Bar		456 Belmonte Park N	open
Major League Sports Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3501 N Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	4770 N Main St	open
Milanos Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1976 N Main St	open
Papa John's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4711 N Main St	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4217 N Main St #102 # 102	open
Ralph Kato Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1610 N Main St	open
Red House Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3221 N Main St	open
Rooster's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Chicken / wings	3501 N Main St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	4000 N Main St	open
Sugar's Lounge	Bar		1919 N Main St	open
Super Subby's Super Subby's Kettering	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	4814 N Main St	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	4206 N Main St	open
the coffee lounge	Coffee shop	Coffee	2809 Philadelphia Dr	open
The Riverstone	Bar		531 Belmonte Park N	open
The Santa Clara Juicery	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	1912 N Main St	open
Valerie Arms	Bar · Casual dining · Café	Coffee		open
Wingstop Wingstop	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	4149 N Main St	open
World Bar-B-Que	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	4029 N Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	37	26	—	—	—	11	SIC1987
1995	30	22	—	—	—	8	SIC1987
1996	40	30	—	—	—	10	SIC1987
1997	40	31	—	—	—	9	SIC1987
1998	44	29	11	15	3	12	NAICS1997
1999	36	26	8	15	3	8	NAICS1997
2000	35	25	6	16	3	8	NAICS1997
2001	32	20	5	13	2	10	NAICS1997
2002	36	25	4	18	2	8	NAICS1997
2003	37	27	5	20	1	6	NAICS2002
2004	35	27	6	19	1	5	NAICS2002
2005	30	24	5	18	1	4	NAICS2002
2006	30	23	4	18	1	5	NAICS2002
2007	25	20	5	14	1	4	NAICS2002
2008	25	20	5	14	1	4	NAICS2007
2009	23	19	6	12	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	24	20	5	14	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	24	21	5	16	—	2	NAICS2007
2012	23	19	4	15	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	21	17	2	15	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	22	19	3	16	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	20	17	2	14	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	20	18	2	16	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	18	16	—	14	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	19	17	3	14	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	13	3	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	14	3	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	16	3	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	15	3	12	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	15	3	12	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 45405. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
45406	1.5 mi	16	2023
45402	2.3 mi	54	2023
45416	2.5 mi	3	2023
45423	2.6 mi	1	2016
45414	3.3 mi	60	2023
45404	3.4 mi	17	2023
45415	3.7 mi	16	2023
45403	4.0 mi	13	2023
45469	4.1 mi	1	1994
45428	4.2 mi	—
45410	4.3 mi	21	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.