BMIE Market 45403

Montgomery County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,608 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,476 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,247 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±617 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	15,006 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,699 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$38,323 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,237 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$779 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±93 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$87,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,358 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	3.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 45403
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+30.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+8.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+44.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 10–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.23) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	48 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	70 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 45403. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.23, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	47.7	48	40%	+19.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52.9	53	35%	+18.5
Market Momentum Score	69.5	70	25%	+17.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,608	75	40%	+30.1
Median household income (ACS)	38,323	5	40%	+2.1
Households (ACS)	6,247	78	20%	+15.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	8.3	53	35%	+18.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.6	74	25%	+18.5
Population (ACS)	13,608	75	20%	+15.0
Median household income (ACS)	38,323	5	20%	+1.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	30	83	50%	+41.6
10-year restaurant growth	8.3	53	30%	+15.8
20-year restaurant growth	44.4	61	20%	+12.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (42)

By cuisine

American 9 · Mexican 7 · Latin American (other) 4 · Pizza 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Bakery 2 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 24 · Bar 12 · Casual dining 8 · Quick service 4 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Food truck 2 · Other 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
5 Brothers Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	BBQ	2701 E 3rd St	open
Abners Diners	Casual dining	American	2424 E 3rd St	open
Argos Bar	Bar		301 Mabel Ave	open
Big Baleada	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Mexican	3100 E 3rd St	open
Butch's Bar	Bar		61 Boltin St	open
Chris's Band Box	Bar		3001 E 3rd St	open
Club Expressions	Bar		2404 E 3rd St	open
Coffee Cup	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2900 E 3rd St	open
Connell's Bar	Bar		3105 E 3rd St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	2 N Smithville Rd	open
Dragon City	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1048 S Smithville Rd	open
East Side of Dayton	Bar			open
East Side Pizza and B's Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Pizza · Breakfast	2418 E 3rd St	open
El latino	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Latin American (other) · American	2021 E 3rd St	open
Fifth Street Co-op Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		1600 E 5th St	open
Gionino's Pizzeria Gionino's Pizzeria Huffman	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1528 E 3rd St	open
Glass Hat	Bar		330 Linden Ave	open
Grips Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	115 Springfield St	open
Joe Mama's Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)		115 Springfield St	open
Kastle's Kreamery	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	320 N Wright Ave	open
Katies Place	Bar		2264 E 5th St	open
La Costeñita Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2701 E 3rd St	open
La Monarca Tacos and Ice Cream	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Ice cream / frozen desserts	276 Linden Ave	open
Las Catrachitas HN	Food truck	Latin American (other)	3326 E 3rd St	open
Luigi’s grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · American	3023 E 3rd St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	1032 S Smithville Rd	open
Nickles Bakery of Ohio	Bakery	Bakery	201 Pritz Ave	open
Produce One	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		904 Woodley Rd	open
Rally's Checkers and Rally's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1111 S Smithville Rd	open
Rice Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3100 E 3rd St	open
S&s Meat House	Food truck		1528 E 3rd St	open
St. Anne The Tart	Bakery	Bakery	1500 E 5th St	open
Stoney's Munchie Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	1929 E 5th St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	2731 E 3rd St	open
Tacos El Cory	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1916 E 5th St	open
Taqueria Garcia Mobil	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	7 Huffman Ave	open
Taqueria la cuchilla Taqueria Taxco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	509 Huffman Ave	open
Taqueria Mixteca	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1609 E 3rd St	open
Taste Uv Heaven	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	115 Springfield St	open
Tyga Bites	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	115 Springfield St	open
Vegan It Iz Eats	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	600 E 2nd St	open
Wayne’s Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	2532 E 3rd St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	23	13	—	—	—	10	SIC1987
1995	20	12	—	—	—	8	SIC1987
1996	23	10	—	—	—	13	SIC1987
1997	23	10	—	—	—	13	SIC1987
1998	24	11	4	7	—	12	NAICS1997
1999	24	11	4	7	—	12	NAICS1997
2000	23	12	5	7	—	11	NAICS1997
2001	24	13	5	8	—	10	NAICS1997
2002	24	12	6	6	—	12	NAICS1997
2003	21	9	4	5	—	12	NAICS2002
2004	22	9	4	5	—	13	NAICS2002
2005	16	7	3	4	—	9	NAICS2002
2006	18	8	4	4	—	10	NAICS2002
2007	15	9	5	4	—	6	NAICS2002
2008	14	9	3	5	1	5	NAICS2007
2009	15	10	4	5	1	5	NAICS2007
2010	13	9	4	5	—	4	NAICS2007
2011	14	10	5	5	—	4	NAICS2007
2012	12	9	4	5	—	3	NAICS2012
2013	14	12	6	6	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	12	10	5	5	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	13	10	5	5	—	3	NAICS2012
2016	11	9	5	4	—	2	NAICS2012
2017	13	9	4	4	—	4	NAICS2017
2018	14	10	4	4	—	4	NAICS2017
2019	16	12	5	5	—	4	NAICS2017
2020	15	12	5	5	—	3	NAICS2017
2021	14	11	4	5	—	3	NAICS2017
2022	14	11	4	6	—	3	NAICS2022
2023	17	13	5	7	—	4	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 45403. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
45410	1.2 mi	21	2023
45404	1.7 mi	17	2023
45423	2.2 mi	1	2016
45469	2.2 mi	1	1994
45402	3.1 mi	54	2023
45420	3.3 mi	33	2023
45431	3.5 mi	83	2023
45419	3.5 mi	27	2023
45409	3.5 mi	37	2023
45432	3.8 mi	29	2023
45405	4.0 mi	15	2023
45435	4.8 mi	2	1997

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.