BMIE Market 45406

Montgomery County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	19,991 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,383 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,954 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±494 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	21,914 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	12,411 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$41,796 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,020 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	37.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$941 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±38 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$85,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,348 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	5.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 45406
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-15.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-30.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-52.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	19 (range 15–23) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.11) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	43 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	52 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	20 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 45406. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.11, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	52.2	52	40%	+20.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50.1	50	35%	+17.5
Market Momentum Score	20.0	20	25%	+5.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	19,991	81	40%	+32.6
Median household income (ACS)	41,796	7	40%	+2.9
Households (ACS)	8,954	83	20%	+16.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8	80	25%	+20.1
Population (ACS)	19,991	81	20%	+16.3
Median household income (ACS)	41,796	7	20%	+1.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 20 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-15.8	15	50%	+7.6
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	-30.4	10	20%	+2.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (42)

By cuisine

American 10 · Chicken / wings 6 · Asian 3 · Burgers 3 · Seafood 3 · BBQ 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Chinese 2 · Dessert 2 · Mexican 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · African 1 · Bakery 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 28 · Quick service 14 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 4 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3 Guys BBQ & Steaks	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Steakhouse · American	2324 N Gettysburg Ave	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2848 Salem Ave	open
Asian Harbor	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3031 N Gettysburg Ave	open
B&B Lounge and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	2914 Salem Ave	open
Calvin 1 Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2804 Salem Ave	open
Chilli's Wings and Rings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · American	3103 N Gettysburg Ave	open
Church's Texas Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2443 N Gettysburg Ave	open
D'oir's LOUNGE	Restaurant (service type not stated)	African	3976 Salem Ave	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	3512 W Siebenthaler	open
Dragon City	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	3031 N Gettysburg Ave	open
Fat Boyz BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	3736 Salem Ave	open
Five Star Chili	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs · American	3257 W Siebenthaler Ave	open
Full Circle Productions 8 Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3275 W Siebenthaler Ave	open
Happy's Pizza The Official Happy's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	2804 Salem Ave	open
Hookah Bazar	Bar		2333 Catalpa Dr.	open
J Pelfrey & Assoc Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3976 Salem Ave	open
JJ Fish and Chicken	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Seafood	2314 N Gettysburg Ave	open
JJ's Chicken and Fish	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Seafood · British / Irish pub food	3134 Salem Ave	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2317 Salem Ave	open
Long John Silver's Long John Silver's	Quick service	Seafood	3103 N Gettysburg Ave	open
Lounge 43 Ave	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining		2339 N Gettysburg Ave	open
Mariah's Cookies	Dessert	Dessert	3275 W Siebenthaler Ave	open
McDonald's	Quick service		1420 Salem Ave	open
Nolan Hibachi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	3489 W Siebenthaler Ave	open
Panaderia la libertad	Bakery	Bakery	1516 Salem Ave	open
Papa John's Papa John's	Quick service		2443 N GETTYSBURG AVE	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	3796 Salem Ave	open
Rally's Checkers and Rally's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3955 Salem Ave	open
Rally's Checkers and Rally's	Quick service	Burgers · American	438 Salem Ave	open
Remixed Sweets and Eats	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	2410 Philadelphia Dr	open
Spanky’s Dayton	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		3493 W Siebenthaler Ave	open
Submarine House Submarine House	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	3598 Salem Ave	open
Submarine House	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2051 Salem Ave	open
Szechuan Taste	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	3261 W Siebenthaler Ave	open
Taco Bell	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3013 Salem Ave	open
Taqueria Los 3 Camachos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2836 Salem Ave	open
The Front Row Bar And Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		2412 Catalpa Dr	open
The Kickback Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		1610 Linnbrook Dr	open
Twisty Treats	Dessert · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	927 Cedarhurst Ave	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3420 Salem Avenue	open
Yo Daddy's kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2160 N Gettysburg Ave	open
Rinaldo's Bake Shoppe	Bakery	Bakery	910 W Fairview Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	38	34	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	39	36	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	32	28	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1997	29	28	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	25	23	5	17	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	25	23	5	17	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	30	28	6	21	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	26	25	4	20	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	25	24	4	19	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	24	23	4	18	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	22	22	3	18	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	21	21	3	17	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	22	22	4	16	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	21	21	3	16	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	22	21	2	17	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	19	19	2	15	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	20	20	4	14	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	15	15	3	12	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	15	15	1	14	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	17	16	1	14	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	16	15	1	14	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	17	15	1	14	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	18	17	1	16	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	17	17	—	16	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	19	19	—	18	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	20	20	—	19	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	22	21	—	20	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	16	16	—	15	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	18	17	3	14	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	16	—	13	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 45406. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
45405	1.5 mi	15	2023
45416	1.7 mi	3	2023
45402	2.5 mi	54	2023
45428	3.1 mi	—
45423	3.2 mi	1	2016
45415	3.6 mi	16	2023
45426	3.9 mi	11	2023
45414	4.1 mi	60	2023
45417	4.2 mi	12	2023
45469	4.6 mi	1	1994
45404	4.8 mi	17	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.