BMIE Market 45439

Montgomery County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,914 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,331 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,640 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±389 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,000 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,824 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$52,035 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,360 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	33.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,084 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±71 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$143,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,452 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	7.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	31 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 45439
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	20.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+34.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+40.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+29.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+14.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	32 (range 29–35) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.83) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	51 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	77 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 45439. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.83, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	50.9	51	40%	+20.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51.6	52	35%	+18.1
Market Momentum Score	76.7	77	25%	+19.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,914	73	40%	+29.3
Median household income (ACS)	52,035	18	40%	+7.0
Households (ACS)	4,640	73	20%	+14.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	40.9	78	35%	+27.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	26.0	25	25%	+6.3
Population (ACS)	11,914	73	20%	+14.7
Median household income (ACS)	52,035	18	20%	+3.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	34.8	86	50%	+43.1
10-year restaurant growth	40.9	78	30%	+23.3
20-year restaurant growth	29.2	52	20%	+10.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (48)

By cuisine

American 13 · Mexican 6 · Pizza 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 4 · Burgers 3 · Chicken / wings 3 · Italian 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 29 · Quick service 11 · Casual dining 5 · Bakery 4 · Bar 4 · Dessert 4 · Other 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3021 Kettering Blvd	open
Bob Evans Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1901 W Dorothy Ln	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1925 W Dorothy Ln	open
D Max	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2815 S Gettysburg Ave	open
Dixie Dairy Dreem	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	4542 S Dixie Dr	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	5099 Springboro Pike	open
Donatos Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2215 Arbor Blvd	open
El & Al Cakes LLC	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	Moraine	open
Fazoli's Fazoli's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	5230 Cobblegate Dr	open
Fiesta Holdings, Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3019 Kettering Blvd	open
Figaro's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1625 W Dorothy Ln	open
Frisch's Big Boy	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	4830 S Dixie Dr	open
Fusion Food Truck	Food truck		Back side of Shell, 4953 N Springboro Pike	open
Gilmans Grub	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Chicken / wings	3351 Main St	open
Go Wireless Cincinnati Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4958 Springboro Pike	open
Hot Head Burritos Hot Head Burritos	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1615 W Dorothy Ln	open
Janesville Winsupply Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3110 Kettering Blvd	open
LongHorn Steakhouse LongHorn Steakhouse	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse · American	1921 W Dorothy Ln	open
Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2741 W Alex-Bell	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1800 Dorothy Ln	open
Moraine Fish & Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Sandwiches · British / Irish pub food	4960 N Springboro Pike	open
Ms. Betty's Kitchen,llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4200 Kettering Blvd	open
Osaka Sushi and Hibachi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	3065 S Dixie Dr	open
Pizza Express Pizza Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	4194 Kettering Blvd	open
Samanta's Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	5460 Dovetree Blvd	open
Sharks Fish & Chicken - Moraine	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2741 W Alex Bell Rd	open
Skyline Chili Skyline Chili	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5774 N Springboro Pike	open
Steak 'n Shake	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1925 Dorothy Lane	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1689 W Dorothy Ln	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1701 W Dorothy Ln	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches	3980 S Dixie Dr	open
SugaRush \| Dayton OH	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	3710 Cozy Camp Rd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	3019 Kettering Blvd	open
Taqueria Del Pueblo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	4200 Kettering Blvd	open
Taqueria Del Pueblo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5594 Springboro Pike Dayton, OH 45449	open
Taqueria El Paisa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4200 Kettering Blvd	open
The Dayton Barbecue Company	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	BBQ · American	1000 Carillon Blvd	open
Treasure Island Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4250 Chief Woods Ln	open
Treasure Island Supper Club	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4250 Chief Woods Ln	open
Vinny's Bar and Grill	Casual dining	American	2205 Dryden Rd	open
Vinny's Carry-Out Lottery	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		2205 Dryden Rd	open
Voltzy's Rootbeer Stand	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4668 Springboro Pike	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	4912 Springboro Pike	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	1701 W Dorothy Ln	open
We're Rolling Pretzel Company	Quick service		1701 W Dorothy Ln	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3001 South Dixie Drive	open
Wingstop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1625 W Dorothy Lane	open
Ziggy's	Bar		5528 N Springboro Pike	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	33	27	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1995	31	27	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1996	30	26	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1997	29	26	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	29	23	9	14	—	3	NAICS1997
1999	30	24	10	14	—	3	NAICS1997
2000	33	26	11	15	—	4	NAICS1997
2001	32	25	11	14	—	4	NAICS1997
2002	28	24	10	14	—	4	NAICS1997
2003	29	24	10	14	—	3	NAICS2002
2004	31	26	9	17	—	4	NAICS2002
2005	30	25	7	18	—	4	NAICS2002
2006	28	22	7	15	—	4	NAICS2002
2007	29	23	6	17	—	4	NAICS2002
2008	26	23	8	14	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	29	24	8	15	—	3	NAICS2007
2010	23	20	8	11	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	23	21	10	11	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	23	21	9	11	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	24	22	8	13	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	24	22	8	13	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	22	21	7	13	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	23	22	8	13	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	24	23	9	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	23	23	9	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	26	26	9	16	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	25	25	9	15	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	28	27	8	18	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	30	27	8	19	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	34	31	9	22	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 45439. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
45449	2.4 mi	40	2023
45409	2.7 mi	37	2023
45428	3.4 mi	—
45419	3.5 mi	27	2023
45429	3.7 mi	46	2023
45417	3.7 mi	12	2023
45469	3.9 mi	1	1994
45402	4.4 mi	54	2023
45423	4.7 mi	1	2016
45459	4.9 mi	128	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.