BMIE Market 01520

Worcester County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	16,912 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±430 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,978 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±212 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,997 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,339 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$148,125 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,329 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,775 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±219 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$478,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,192 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	18.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	21 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 01520
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-12.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-4.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+5.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+90.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	21 (range 18–24) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.07) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	85 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	22 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 01520. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.07, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	85.2	85	40%	+34.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.0	58	35%	+20.3
Market Momentum Score	22.3	22	25%	+5.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	16,912	79	40%	+31.4
Median household income (ACS)	148,125	96	40%	+38.4
Households (ACS)	5,978	77	20%	+15.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-4.6	21	35%	+7.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.4	63	25%	+15.7
Population (ACS)	16,912	79	20%	+15.7
Median household income (ACS)	148,125	96	20%	+19.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 22 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-12.5	17	50%	+8.5
10-year restaurant growth	-4.6	21	30%	+6.4
20-year restaurant growth	5	37	20%	+7.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (43)

By cuisine

Coffee 8 · Asian 7 · Dessert 6 · Pizza 6 · American 5 · Bakery 5 · Italian 5 · Sandwiches 4 · Japanese 3 · Thai 3 · Breakfast 2 · Chinese 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Sushi 2 · Burgers 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 22 · Dessert 7 · Bakery 6 · Bar 6 · Café 6 · Coffee shop 6 · Casual dining 4 · Quick service 4 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
122 Diner	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	1392 Main St	open
Al's Candy Shoppe	Dessert	Dessert	605 Main St	open
Baked	Bakery	Bakery	680 Main St	open
Brilla Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	697 Main St	open
Cavanaugh’s Pub	Bar		16 Cypress Cir	open
Cheoy Lee's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	684 Main St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	1142 Main St	open
Donut Kitchen	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	623 Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	1175 Main St Mobil Station	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	5 Shrewsbury St Chaffins Corner Plaza	open
El Mercado Restaurant, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		700 Main St	open
Flip Flops	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · American	680 Main St	open
Friendly's	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1060 Main St	open
Gjini Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		624 Main St	open
Goda's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	1625 Main St	open
Holden Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	597 Main St	open
Kyoto Kyoto Japanese Restaurant - Worcester	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Japanese	695 Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	638 Main St	open
Meola's Ice cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1134 Main St	open
Mexicali Cantina Grill Mexicali Cantina Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	700 Main St	open
Naughty Pines	Bar		Shrewsbury St	open
Papa Gino's Papa Gino's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	797 Main St	open
Parrot Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	160 Reservoir St	open
Pholicious Asian Fusion Restaurant and Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	1062 Main St	open
Quinns Blue Plate	Restaurant (service type not stated)		661 Main St	open
Say Cheese	Food truck	Sandwiches · American	11 Malden St	open
Seven Saws Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		112 Industrial Dr	open
Siam 9 Thai Cuisine - Holden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	456 Main St	open
Sip 'n Sprout	Café	Coffee	1146 Main St	open
Specialty Sandwich Co	Other	Sandwiches · Pizza · American	624 Main St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	788 Main St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1115 Main St	open
Sweet melissas bakery	Bakery	Bakery	Adams Rd	open
Sweets N Java	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café · Dessert · Coffee shop	Coffee · Dessert	1059 Main St	open
Tap House On Main	Brewery / taproom		1148 Main St	open
Thai House of Holden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	680 Main St	open
Thai Island	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	456 Main St	open
The Bagel Inn	Bakery	Bakery · Breakfast	785 Main St	open
The Viapiano Companies Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		680 Main St	open
Val's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	75 Reservoir St	open
Whirled Domination	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	512 Main St	open
Wong Dynasty and Yankee Grill Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Asian · Sushi · Japanese · Chinese	176 Reservoir St Rt 31 Holden Ma	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	160 Reservoir St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	11	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	14	12	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	11	9	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	15	14	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	17	16	6	5	5	1	NAICS1997
1999	18	17	6	6	5	1	NAICS1997
2000	18	17	5	6	6	1	NAICS1997
2001	20	18	7	6	5	1	NAICS1997
2002	21	19	6	8	5	1	NAICS1997
2003	21	20	7	9	4	—	NAICS2002
2004	21	19	6	10	3	—	NAICS2002
2005	22	22	6	12	4	—	NAICS2002
2006	22	21	7	10	4	1	NAICS2002
2007	20	20	8	7	5	—	NAICS2002
2008	21	19	7	7	5	1	NAICS2007
2009	22	21	9	7	5	1	NAICS2007
2010	23	22	9	7	6	1	NAICS2007
2011	23	21	7	9	5	1	NAICS2007
2012	23	22	10	6	6	1	NAICS2012
2013	23	22	9	7	6	1	NAICS2012
2014	21	21	8	7	6	—	NAICS2012
2015	23	23	11	6	6	—	NAICS2012
2016	23	23	8	8	7	—	NAICS2012
2017	23	23	8	8	7	—	NAICS2017
2018	24	24	10	8	6	—	NAICS2017
2019	23	23	8	8	7	—	NAICS2017
2020	21	20	6	8	6	—	NAICS2017
2021	21	20	6	8	6	—	NAICS2017
2022	25	23	7	8	8	—	NAICS2022
2023	24	21	7	8	6	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 01520. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
01522	2.9 mi	1	2016
01606	3.4 mi	31	2023
01609	3.6 mi	40	2023
01583	4.4 mi	21	2023
01602	4.5 mi	29	2023
01605	4.6 mi	40	2023
01612	4.6 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.