BMIE Market 02186

Norfolk County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	28,735 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±248 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,121 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±337 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	27,003 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,700 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$188,033 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,716 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,486 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±327 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$933,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±31,456 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	13.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 02186
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-15.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+54.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+41.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	14 (range 13–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.76) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	91 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	39 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 02186. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.76, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	91.4	91	40%	+36.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65.0	65	35%	+22.7
Market Momentum Score	39.4	39	25%	+9.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	28,735	88	40%	+35.2
Median household income (ACS)	188,033	99	40%	+39.4
Households (ACS)	9,121	84	20%	+16.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-15	16	35%	+5.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.9	88	25%	+22.1
Population (ACS)	28,735	88	20%	+17.6
Median household income (ACS)	188,033	99	20%	+19.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-15	16	30%	+4.8
20-year restaurant growth	54.6	69	20%	+13.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (38)

By cuisine

Coffee 10 · Pizza 6 · American 5 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Asian 2 · European 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Japanese 2 · Sushi 2 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 22 · Café 9 · Bakery 6 · Coffee shop 4 · Dessert 4 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Quick service 2

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
556 Adams Street Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		556 Adams St # 0	open
88 Wharf	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Pizza	88 Wharf St	open
Abby Park	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	550 Adams St	open
Brueggers Bagels Bruegger's Bagels	Bakery	Bakery · Sandwiches	360 Granite Ave	open
Coffee Break Cafe	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	24 Central Ave	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	545 Adams St	open
Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert		open
Einstein Bros. Bagels Einstein Bros. Bagels	Quick service		1071 Blue Hill Avenue	open
El Barrio Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		537 Adams St	open
Gelato & Chill	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert		open
Ichiro Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	538 Adams St A	open
Juliannes Kitchen and Bar	Casual dining · Bar	Mediterranean · European	10 Bassett St	open
Madre Osteria & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Italian	88 Wharf St	open
Marketplace Café	Café	Coffee	10 Bassett St	open
Mike's Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	10 Bassett St	open
Milton House Of Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	537 Adams St	open
Milton Porchfest	Bar		Valley Road	open
Miltons Opus Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		95 Eliot St	open
Monkey Business Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee		open
Mozzarellas Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	538 Adams St	open
Mr. Chan's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	534 Adams St	open
Newcomb Farms Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	1139 Randolph Ave	open
Not Your Average Joe's, Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2 Granite Ave Ste 300	open
Novara Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	556 Adams St	open
Peel Pizza Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	538 Adams St	open
Playa Bowls Playa Bowls	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	532 Adams St	open
Revive	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	7 Pleasant St	open
Rise & Thrive Refreshments	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Coffee · Juice / smoothies · Ice cream / frozen desserts	840 Hillside St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	552 Adams St	open
Steel & Rye	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Bakery · Coffee	95 Eliot St	open
Stella's	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	560 Adams St	open
The Plate	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	27 Central Ave	open
The Plate at Milton Marketplace	Café	Coffee	10 Bassett St Ste 2	open
Tino's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	22 Central Ave	open
Welch Restaurant Management Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		550 Adams St	open
Zach's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	538 Adams St	open
Cakes	Bakery	Bakery	95 Eliot St	closed
Jenna's Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	695 Hillside St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	18	15	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	18	10	4	5	1	3	NAICS1997
1999	17	11	4	6	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	20	13	5	6	2	2	NAICS1997
2001	24	16	5	10	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	14	10	2	6	2	1	NAICS1997
2003	16	11	3	5	3	1	NAICS2002
2004	20	13	3	6	4	1	NAICS2002
2005	22	14	4	6	4	2	NAICS2002
2006	20	14	5	5	4	—	NAICS2002
2007	22	15	5	5	5	1	NAICS2002
2008	29	20	11	6	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	26	17	7	6	4	—	NAICS2007
2010	29	17	7	6	4	2	NAICS2007
2011	29	18	8	6	4	1	NAICS2007
2012	29	18	8	6	4	2	NAICS2012
2013	29	20	10	6	4	2	NAICS2012
2014	32	20	11	5	4	2	NAICS2012
2015	28	21	11	6	4	1	NAICS2012
2016	27	19	12	4	3	1	NAICS2012
2017	27	18	10	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	27	17	10	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	28	18	11	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	26	17	8	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	28	17	8	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	26	17	6	8	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	25	17	6	6	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 02186. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
02136	2.5 mi	24	2023
02126	2.5 mi	39	2023
02124	3.1 mi	40	2023
02169	3.4 mi	132	2023
02131	3.6 mi	53	2023
02170	3.8 mi	44	2023
02122	4.0 mi	47	2023
02121	4.4 mi	28	2023
02171	4.5 mi	55	2023
02368	4.6 mi	56	2023
02132	4.8 mi	52	2023
02184	4.8 mi	109	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.